Fantasy Football League-Losing Picks? Adam Koffler's Early-Round Draft Avoids for 2026

July 11, 2026

Adam Koffler's players to avoid in the first four rounds of 2026 fantasy football leagues. His early-round fantasy draft avoids and busts, including CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and more.

Fantasy football is easy when you draft the right players, right? Of course, especially in the first few rounds of your drafts. These 3-4 players lay the foundation for your team's success.

However, not all players in those first few rounds are "good" picks. As I always say, it's not that these players are bad; it's just that there are other players going around them that I'd much prefer this season.

I've highlighted five overvalued players at their current average draft position (ADP). Avoid the temptation to click on these talented players that won't live up to their lofty price tags in 2026.

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Underdog ADP: 9.7 (WR5)

Lamb is currently going as the fifth wide receiver off the board in fantasy drafts despite finishing last season as the WR13 on a points-per-game basis in 2025.

His teammate, George Pickens, finished as the WR6 on a per-game basis.

Now, before you jump down my throat, yes, Lamb did leave a couple of games early due to injury.

If you remove those two games, he would have been the WR9 instead of WR13.

But for some reason, we're not getting a discount on Lamb in 2026 despite the role change we saw in 2025 playing alongside Pickens.

Lamb's average depth of target (aDoT) skyrocketed as his slot rate shrunk significantly. Subsequently, he lost a good chunk of "layup" targets that he's used to seeing.

To make matters even worse for Lamb, the latest drumbeat out of Dallas is that Pickens could be used in the slot more in 2026.

Insider Jane Slater for the Cowboys on the offense and George Pickens:

Use Pickens in the slot more (played WIDE more than anyone in the NFL in 2025)

Play under center more

Noted that Klayton Adams isn’t married to a philosophy and matches his teams skills to the design pic.twitter.com/4h9KX3SJny

— Zain Dhanani (@DhananiZain) July 9, 2026

In 2025, Pickens lined up in the slot on just 9.9% of his routes. As that number increases, Lamb's number decreases, further reducing the number of easy targets coming his way.

And as crazy as it sounds, Ryan Flournoy will also be very much in the mix this season. He's no slouch, and he's making a lot of noise this offseason.

Check this out:

Ryan Flournoy is just one of the few reasons I’m fading CeeDee Lamb this season

When Flournoy had a route rate less than 33% last season, Lamb averaged 18.5 fPPG, but when Flournoy played more than that, Lamb’s fPPG went down to just 15.3

George Pickens is also a problem,… https://t.co/BJsnZSlDHA

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) June 13, 2026

To pile on, the Cowboys defense can't be any worse than it was in 2025, when they allowed a league-high 30.1 points per game.

Dak Prescott threw the ball a career-high 600 times last season, and Lamb still checked in as just the WR9 in his 12 healthy games.

This offseason, they brought in a new defensive coordinator, while adding veteran edge rusher Rashan Gary, and prioritizing Malachi Lawrence and Caleb Downs in the 2026 NFL Draft.

For all of the reasons cited above, I am fading Lamb at his inflated price tag given all the changes to the environment in Dallas and his role alongside another elite wide receiver.

Who to draft instead:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Underdog ADP: 9.9 (WR6)

Here's a prime example of "it's not the player, it's the ADP and the situation."

Jefferson is obviously one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Heck, just two years ago he put up 1,533 yards and 10 touchdowns en route to a top 5 fantasy finish.

We all know how last season went with J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer. It was by far the worst season of Jefferson's career.

He just barely topped 1,000 yards and scored just two touchdowns.

Up until last season, Jefferson has sliced up defenses on intermediate and deep routes, averaging a career 15.01 yards per catch.

In 2o25, he averaged just 12.48 yards per catch. And therein lies the problem.

In comes Kyler Murray to save the day, right? Maybe, but also, maybe not (and for the sake of this exercise, we're assuming he beats out McCarthy for the starting job).

Murray has never topped 4,000 passing yards or 26 passing touchdowns in a season.

It's a foregone conclusion that he's going to run the football more than Jefferson's previous quarterbacks (Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold) ever did.

For his career, Murray has averaged 6.1 rushing attempts per game. So right off the bat, we can expect lower pass volume.

Yes, Murray supported DeAndre Hopkins in Arizona for a couple of really good seasons, particularly in 2020.

That season, Hopkins caught 115-of-160 targets for 1,407 yards and six touchdowns. But as you can see, the yards per catch were relatively low (12.23).

Historically, that's not where Jefferson has made a living. He thrives on deeper routes. It's possible this isn't a match made in heaven.

And we haven't even discussed the other pass-catching options for Murray.

Jordan Addison is very good, Jauan Jennings had nine touchdowns on 90 targets last season, and T.J. Hockenson is another year removed from knee surgery in 2024.

Jefferson's best seasons have come playing with pocket passers that rely on precision and accuracy. It remains to be seen if Murray can become that type of quarterback.

And on top of all that, the Vikings aren't likely to be in a ton of shootouts this season. Their average implied point total sits at just 22.5 (12th-lowest).

They can win games with their defense. Last season, they allowed just 19.6 points per game.

There are just too many variables and too much competition in Minnesota to be in on Jefferson as a top 10 pick in 2026.

Who to draft instead:

Ashton Jeanty, James Cook III

Jeremiyah Love, RB, Arizona Cardinals

Underdog ADP: 24.5 (RB13)

Listen, I love Love as much as the next person. He dominated in his last two seasons at Notre Dame, rushing for nearly 2,500 yards and 35 touchdowns.

He was so productive, and is such a great athlete, that the Arizona Cardinals just couldn't pass him up at third overall in the 2026 NFL Draft.

But, unlike the Cardinals, you should be passing on Love at the back end of the second round this fantasy football season.

There are lots of things Love needs to overcome as a rookie to meet (or exceed) expectations.

First, the Cardinals have the lowest average implied total at just 18.5 points per game. They're favored in exactly zero games this season.

In fantasy football, we need touchdown equity from running backs that aren’t being targeted 75+ times in the passing game

These averaged implied totals give me “some” pause on Jeremiyah Love, Quinshon Judkins, Ashton Jeanty, and Travis Etienne specifically in 2026

📸 @kyle_borg pic.twitter.com/JaXnNdvFgk

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) May 16, 2026

Second, they have the seventh hardest schedule, per Sharp Football Analysis.

So, not only will the Cardinals be in a bunch of negative game scripts that skew toward passing the football, but when they do try to run, it won't come easy for Love.

Third, the Cardinals have three above-average to elite pass-catchers. Trey McBride is the elite option, with the jury still out on Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson.

Either way, Love is likely the fourth option in the Cardinals' passing attack.

That becomes a problem given the implied lack of touchdown equity for Love and the Cardinals in 2026.

In the last two seasons, only 23% of running backs on teams with five or fewer wins accumulated more than 15 PPR fantasy points per game (PPG).

Those running backs were Alvin Kamara (18.9), Chuba Hubbard (16.1), and Breece Hall (15.1), all in 2024.

Kamara led the Saints with 89 targets that year, with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed banged up.

Hubbard had a whopping 10 touchdowns, the fourth-highest RB opportunity share, and the 14th-highest target share competing with the likes of Adam Thielen, Xavier Leggette, and David Moore.

Hall, who barely snuck over 15 PPG, was first among running backs in routes run and third in target share (13.8%) as he played the first seven games without Davante Adams.

Needless to say, if a running back on a bad team is going to pay off in fantasy football, you need fluke touchdowns or a hefty target share.

To no fault of his own, it's hard to see Love surpassing McBride, Harrison Jr., or Wilson in the pecking order.

It's also hard to project him for more than a handful of touchdowns given the offensive environment, brutal schedule, and addition of goal-line aficionado Tyler Allgeier.

Love's rushing touchdowns over/under is set at just 5.5 (+110) at BetMGM. Not great!

Who to draft instead:

George Pickens, DeVonta Smith, Breece Hall

Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers

Underdog ADP: 38.9 (WR19)

Here we have another talented wide receiver. He's just not in the best position to put up elite fantasy numbers.

As a rookie, McMillan came in and did exactly what he was supposed to do, putting up over 1,000 yards in a Panthers offense deprived of elite playmakers.

But that doesn't paint the whole picture. McMillan's 7.0 targets per game ranked just 23rd among wideouts.

Per Fantasy Points Data, he ranked 32nd in yards per route run (1.94) and just 34th in targets per route run (0.23).

His 0.41 expected fantasy points per route run ranked just 39th among wideouts.

And McMillan did all of that with a nearly seven-game head start on teammate Jalen Coker, who was returning from an early-season quad injury.

There wasn't a whole lot of competition for targets, and still, McMillan didn't showcase elite target-earning ability.

Not only that, but once the coaching staff had an extra week to gameplan following the team's bye week, Coker actually outperformed McMillan.

Tetairoa McMillan is obviously good, but so is Jalen Coker!

The former UDFA out of Holy Cross outperformed the 8th overall pick in the final five games of the 2025 season

He’s been hyper efficient, and now he’s locked and loaded as the Panthers’ WR2 heading into the 2026 season https://t.co/DGK9bbd48A pic.twitter.com/PYBNtdeOmy

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) May 9, 2026

The Panthers clearly like Coker, as they handed him a three-year, $35 million extension this offseason.

He's going to play a key role in the offense. But for some reason, his ADP sits at 131.1 (WR55) compared to 38.9 (WR19) for McMillan.

McMillan will probably out-target Coker in 2026, but I don't think we can say that with certainty given how we saw them perform when on the field together in 2025.

On top of that, both of these guys will have to fend off a low-volume passing attack; it's just easier to stomach at Coker's price tag than at McMillan's.

Despite being in the middle of the pack in pass attempts per game the last two seasons under offensive coordinator Brad Idzik, the Panthers have averaged just 185.4 passing yards per game.

That's in large part due to their bottom five pass yards per attempt, courtesy of quarterback Bryce Young.

The jury is still out on Young, who has thrown for just 250+ yards in eight of 46 NFL games.

Between Coker, Young, and a desired run-heavy scheme, McMillan lacks the upside of other wide receivers being drafted around him.

Who to draft instead:

Javonte Williams, Emeka Egbuka

Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers

Underdog ADP: 40.3 (RB18)

Jacobs wasn't bad last season, but he also wasn't very good, either. It was the first time he showed some real signs of aging.

Part of that could have been due to a knee contusion he suffered in Week 11, but he wasn't all that efficient before the injury.

In Jacobs' first season with the Packers, he produced 20+ fantasy points in nine games. Last season, he did so in just four games.

Here's how some of his efficiency metrics stack up year-over-year:

At 28 years old, there's definitely a real possibility Jacobs is declining after seven straight seasons over 260 touches.

Jacobs was never the most efficient back, but he's always been able to overcome those issues with volume.

Those efficiency issues will come under the spotlight even more running behind a bottom-tier offensive line group.

Per Warren Sharp, the Packers' offensive line ranks just 27th heading into the 2026 season.

The other possible thorn in his side for the 2026 season is MarShawn Lloyd. Yup, he's "finally" healthy for once (so we're told).

According to Packers beat writer Bill Huber, Lloyd practiced every day without issue during OTAs.

That's a huge step in the right direction for a guy that's played just one game in two seasons since being drafted.

If Lloyd is truly healthy, as some suggest, Green Bay could very well decide to take a load off Jacobs' shoulders to keep him fresh throughout the season.

MarShawn Lloyd

This is a PERFECT example of an old injury leading to a new injury. In fact several new injuries.

Lloyd was never able to properly correct the compensation patterns after his 2020 ACL tear (likely unknown to him) which then eventually led to over-compensations… https://t.co/KQaoYuXDJC pic.twitter.com/lIc7qgEYmY

— Jesse Morse, M.D. (@DrJesseMorse) June 18, 2026

Now let's take a look at Jacobs' usage in the passing game. He finished with 44 targets in 15 games, but that doesn't paint the entire picture.

Without Christian Watson and Jayden Reed on the field in Weeks 3-7, Jacobs averaged 4.8 targets per game.

Then Watson returned in Week 8, and from Week 8 through Week 13, Jacobs' targets dipped to 3.2 per game.

Then Reed came back in Week 14. With the Packers' receiving corps fully healthy, Jacobs averaged just 2.2 targets per game in his last four games of the season.

Declining efficiency, a healthy (and explosive) complementary back, less receiving work, and offseason off-the-field issues have me staying far, far away from Mr. Jacobs in 2026.

Who to draft instead:

Luther Burden III, Jaylen Waddle, David Montgomery

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