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Zach Thompson's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/26/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
This Saturday is stuffed with baseball games. Not only are all 30 teams in action, but a pair of doubleheaders give us a massive total of 17 games on the schedule. In this post, we will focus on four hitters in favorable environments for home runs. Whether that be stadium, weather, matchup, or all of the above, we have narrowed down our pool to provide our most likely players to home run, with odds included.
Below, I will provide my top four favorite home run bets on Saturday. One great way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which increases your chances of winning even without each one going yard. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need two of our four-hitters to go yard.
Please keep reading to see my favorite home run prop bets from MLB games on Saturday, April 26, 2025. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop at other sportsbooks to find the best value on your wagers.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Saturday, April 26:
- Jordan Beck, Colorado Rockies
- Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
- Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
- Tommy Edman, Los Angeles Dodgers
Jordan Beck OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Beck has had a huge power surge over the last few games while filling in for Brenton Doyle (personal), and the 24-year-old has likely earned himself some extra playing time in the future for the struggling Rockies lineup.
Beck had 25 homers in the minor leagues in 2023 and 11 last year while splitting time between Triple-A and the majors. He had a home run in his first eight games at Triple-A this season before being called up last Saturday.
He had a huge doubleheader against the Royals on Thursday with one home run in the first game and two home runs in the second game. He kept right on crushing as the Rockies returned to Coors Field, hitting two more home runs in the first game of the team's series against the Reds.
Jordan Beck's second homer of the night is a 437-foot blast that brings the @Rockies within a run 😮
(MLB x @JagermeisterUSA) pic.twitter.com/jb4YjT37n8
— MLB (@MLB) April 26, 2025
Beck should be in a good environment to continue his hot streak as he faces Hunter Greene at Coors Field. The wind is forecast to be blowing out to left, with the temperature a very comfortable 68 degrees. It isn't quite as warm as when balls really carry at Coors later in the summer, but it should still be much more favorable conditions than Friday night in the rain.
Greene has been solid overall this season with a 2.35 ERA, 3.22 FIP, and 0.78 WHIP. However, he has still given up good contact. Opposing hitters have a 46.7% hard-hit rate and a 12.0% barrel rate against Greene, both of which would be career-highs for the 25-year-old righty. In his five starts, he has served up four home runs, with two coming to righties and two to lefties. He has faced more left-handed hitters, though, so his HR/9 splits favor Beck's side of the plate. His splits also favor Beck on the road, since he has a 2.31 HR/9 on the road this season.
None of Beck's five home runs have been cheap shots, each traveling at least 390 feet. All five have been pulled to left field, where the wind should give them an extra nudge this Saturday afternoon.
In a very short-term sample size, Beck has been the hottest home run hitter in baseball, and he'll look to keep rolling this Saturday afternoon, where the environment should give him a good chance to park another long ball over the left field wall.
Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+170 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Judge and the Yankees are at home against the Blue Jays, taking on Kevin Gausman. Judge has seven home runs on the season, but he has not homered in eight straight games. He seems due for a blast coming into Saturday afternoon, and he has a great history against Kevin Gausman.
Judge is hitting .408 on the year with a .517 wOBA and .306 ISO. He has a 24.7% barrel rate and ranks second in the MLB in barrels per plate appearance and ninth in hard-hit rate. Judge has a 54.2% hard-hit rate and four barrels over his last eight games, even though none of those hits have been home runs.
He's back at home after playing the first seven of those homeless games on the road, and Yankee Stadium should help him get back in the homer column on Saturday. Six of his seven homers have come at home this season, and he has a .457 home batting average, .500 home ISO, and 42.9% home run to fly ball ratio.
Judge has gone 13-for-39 (.333) in his career against Gausman with six home runs and a 1.326 OPS. In very favorable conditions on Saturday afternoon, Judge has a good shot to hit his first homer in a while.
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Fernando Tatis Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+250 DraftKings Sportsbooks)
Tatis is within one home run of the MLB lead after crushing eight homers in his first 25 games. He had a pair of singles in the series opener against the Rays on Friday but hasn't hit a home run since last Sunday night in Houston. Like Judge, he continues to make great contact, though, and is in a good spot to get back on track with a home run on Saturday.
Tatis to dead central! 💪 pic.twitter.com/PES7X0t3iH
— MLB (@MLB) April 21, 2025
On the season, Tatis ranks sixth in the MLB in barrels per plate appearance and is also in the top 25 in hard-hit rate. He has an impressive .443 wOBA, but his xwOBA of .464 shows that his quality of contact has been even better than that number reflects.
Throughout his career, Tatis has thrived at home at Petco Park, and five of his eight homers have come at home this year as well. He's hitting .382 with a .309 ISO and .479 wOBA in his 14 games at home this season.
Tatis also has a favorable matchup against Ryan Pepiot, who has allowed eight home runs in his 28 innings this season and an 11.8% barrel rate. Pepiot has a 1.5 HR/9 in his career against righties and a 2.57 HR/9 so far this season. He has allowed multiple home runs in each of his last three starts
Pepiot facing the Padres at Petco Park puts Tatis in a good spot to hit a home run on Saturday night, and I'm happy to get him at this number in such a friendly spot.
Tommy Edman OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+750 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I usually like to finish my prop picks with a long shot play, and getting Edman at this number makes him fall into that category as the Dodgers host the Pirates on Saturday night. Edman already has more home runs this season than last year and is on pace to smash his previous career high by the All-Star break. He has matched Tatis with eight home runs on the year and has a career-best .283 ISO through his first 26 games of the season.
His most recent home run came Tuesday in Chicago.
Tommy Edman hits a TANK for his 8th homer of the season! pic.twitter.com/qMeUk5KEj7
— MLB (@MLB) April 22, 2025
Edman and the Dodgers were held in check on Friday by a masterful Paul Skenes performance, but they'll look to bounce back on Saturday against Mitch Keller. Keller has a 4.18 ERA, 3.92 FIP, and 0.6 HR/9 on the season, but his underlying metrics aren't quite as impressive. He has a 5.77 ERA since he has allowed a 42.9% hard-hit rate and 7.7% barrel rate. Although he has only given up two home runs this season, both came against lefties in his last two starts. Left-handed hitters have hit .306 against Keller this season with a .431 slugging percentage and plenty of good contact.
The switch-hitting Edman has four homers from each side of the plate this season, but he has made better contact overall and has had a better fly-ball percentage when facing right-handed pitchers as a left-handed batter. He has also split his home runs evenly between home and road splits, but he has made better contact overall at Dodger Stadium.
The weather looks good in Los Angeles with a slight breeze blowing out. The Dodgers will be looking to bounce back after being shut out on Friday, and Edman has been enough of a home run threat to back him as a long shot in this matchup since he's getting such a great number on sportsbooks this Saturday.
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