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Joel Smyth breaks down the one key stat to find the perfect fantasy football defense for the 2024 season as well as which round to draft one for your team.
Defenses in fantasy football are an important piece that is often glanced over. This is partially because fantasy D/STs are highly variable and frequently overlooked as a guessing game.
Although they are less predictable than offensive skill players, fantasy managers can still make informed decisions to find an edge at the position.
The question is: what should you look for and when do you draft them?
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Defensive Variability
From 2022 to 2023, the correlation between defenses' fantasy points per game was 0.05, a near-zero result. A quarterback like Jalen Hurts should be relatively the same this season with a few minor changes. For defenses in fantasy, though, there are 11 variables to account for, not to mention the compounding variabilities when it comes to regression and injury.
The most important stat to predict defensive fantasy success is pressure rate. Pressure causes all things good in fantasy scoring. Sacks, fumbles, interceptions, and touchdowns. In comparison to previous seasons' points per game, pressure rate had a 0.4 correlation to fantasy points in 2023.
2023 NFL QB pressure leaders:
1. MParsons 103 (14 sacks)
2. AHutchinson 101 (11.5)
3. NBosa 95 (10.5)
4. MCrosby 92 (14.5)
5. JAllen 90 (17.5)
6. KMack 88 (17)
7. MGarrett 86 (14)
7. TWatt 86 (19)
9. ADonald 84 (8)
10. THendrickson 79 (17.5)— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) January 8, 2024
Importance of Pressure Rate
The No. 1 fantasy defense was the Dallas Cowboys, who led the NFL in pressure rate at nearly 43%. The NFL's median pressure rate was 35% in 2023. Of the top-12 D/STs, 11 were above this median mark. The 12th was the Las Vegas Raiders with a respectable 33% pressure rate and an unsustainable five defensive touchdowns (second most in the NFL).
To find the best fantasy defenses for 2024, focusing on projected pressure rates will be much more successful than solely on past results.
I will give you two examples. The Green Bay Packers were sixth in pressure rate in 2023 and have a growing young defensive line, including first-round pick Lukas Van Ness to aid a now-healthy Rashan Gary. Although they are projected to have an elite level of pressure, they are being drafted as the 17th defense off the board.
On the opposite end, Philadelphia is being drafted inside the top 10 after finishing 27th in 2023. Its pressure rate was below the median and it has now lost its top edge-rusher, Haason Reddick. As a team built more for run-stopping with a dominant interior, it will be a better NFL defense than a fantasy defense.
When Should I Draft a D/ST in Fantasy Football?
Defenses are predictable, but value is still on the lower end when it comes to fantasy. The difference between the No. 1 fantasy defense and the 10th is just two points per game. Considering this and the ability to draft a high-pressure defense at value, wait until the final two rounds to pull the trigger on a defense with upside as a result of elite pressure.
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