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Joel Smyth breaks down five dynasty football players to trade for in fantasy football leagues after struggling in 2023. Which players deserve a second chance in 2024?
When a player busts, confidence begins to drain. However, separating facts from feelings is easier when they are not on your team to begin with.
Some preseason-hyped players were total busts in 2023. Many fantasy football managers will avoid these players in 2024 drafts, but should they?
Taking advantage while their perception is down, or certainty is in question, results in a better value. Below are five players who failed to meet expectations in 2023 and are in a prime spot to buy in dynasty fantasy football leagues.
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Bijan Robinson, RB - Atlanta Falcons
After being selected near the top of draft boards, Bijan Robinson finished as RB17 in fantasy PPG as a rookie. For a player so talented, everything seemed to be against him. His efficiency wasn’t the problem, with only four running backs ranked higher in missed tackles forced per touch.
When the cards aren’t dealt in your favor at first, the pendulum will eventually swing. There are five external factors I look for to manage risk (something perceived as high for a player like Robinson).
First is coaching. Arthur Smith is gone, praise the Lord. In replacement, Zac Robinson will call plays following a five-year stint in Los Angeles under Sean McVay. How he has spoken so far about Bijan comes into the second factor.
Volume. Coach Robinson wants to use Bijan similar to Christian McCaffrey. Yeah, yeah, yeah, everyone says that, but remember where his coaching history comes from. It comes from the one offense in the league that gave their running back, Kyren Williams, more opportunities per game than San Fransisco gave McCaffrey.
Next is the offense, specifically the line and signal caller. While the offensive line was great in 2023, Bijan suffered under the quarterback play of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke. The following graphic should ease the worry, as Kirk Cousins will lead this offense to new pastures, specifically the end zone.
Catchable vs Turnover-worthy throw rates when clean, QBs since 2021.
You invest three straight first round picks into skill positions but have a non-existent floor at QB, might be time for a reboot. Kirk Cousins to ATL. pic.twitter.com/8b0cgil3q4
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) March 12, 2024
Lastly, how does the running back stand in terms of injury and age concern, as well as are they proven? At 22 years old, 215 pounds, and a 98th percentile athleticism score, it’s the best you could ask for. Although in terms of fantasy production he is not necessarily proven, his efficiency and play on the field are. After putting together the graph below, it is easy to identify the difference between the running busts of 2023 and Bijan Robinson.
Jaylen Waddle, WR - Miami Dolphins
From a WR ADP of 11th to a finish of 34th, Jaylen Waddle’s 2023 didn’t go as planned. Not only did Waddle miss four games, but had multiple more affected by low snap counts due to injury. It’s difficult to not allow perception to be altered, but this is where an advantage can be snatched.
After signing a three-year contract to stay in Miami, the 25-year-old is tied to Mike McDaniel’s offense, the perfect style to maximize his talents and keep his efficiency high. Although Tyreek Hill is the clear number-one receiver in Miami, he comes into the season halfway to 31 years old in an offense that can (and has proven to) support two fantasy WR1s.
If he was scoring on the same level as his efficiency last season, Waddle would score 18 PPR points per game. This coupled with his play style raises both his season-long floor and ceiling. After finishing as a WR1 in 2022, the Dolphins' second star receiver shouldn’t drop too far down draft boards after one injury-affected season. Now is the time to buy before his price rises in the second half of 2024.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR - Seattle Seahawks
He was no Quentin Johnston, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba did not perform up to expectation in year one. Smith-Njigba is currently going as WR42 a year after finishing as WR48 in 2023. The effort to get the ball in the rookie’s hands needed to be designed inorganically, with a 28% designed target share to lead the entire NFL. Now with a new offensive coordinator in town, the rise of the Seahawks young slot receiver should continue in a way more suitable to his natural strengths.
Smith-Njigba was best in 11 personnel or three receiver sets. Seattle brought in University of Washington’s Ryan Grubb to call the offense, who is both pass-heavy and a fan of 11 personnel. When the Seahawks were in 11 personnel in 2023, Jaxon saw a 23% target share compared to his usual 7%. He is more diverse than people give him credit for, reaching 2.43 yards per route run outside of the slot, away from his strength of lining up the inside. With a more spaced offense, the sophomore receiver should benefit from playing all over the field as his role grows.
The former Buckeye was not just your average prospect. His efficiency in college put him side by side with names such as Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, Marvin Harrison Jr., CeeDee Lamb, and DeVonta Smith.
YPRR vs EPA Per Snap from this year’s WR class and first round draft picks since 2019 (college totals)
Troy Franklin on Day 2 👍 pic.twitter.com/6hDbBHpzYc
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) March 22, 2024
Bryce Young, QB - Carolina Panthers
Of the last nine number-one overall selected quarterbacks, six have averaged over 17 fantasy points per game. Bryce Young was sadly one of the three to miss that mark. There is hope, as his situation definitely played a factor. The fact that the other two quarterbacks who failed to reach 17 points per game were Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff. They turned out fine.
Plenty has changed in favor of Young this offseason, no bigger than new head coach Dave Canales. This is Canales’ third team in three seasons. The first year he brought career journeyman Geno Smith to the top five in quarterback fantasy scoring. In year two, Baker Mayfield, on his fourth team in less than two years, became the fantasy QB10. Canales’ quarterback-friendly offense will help Young get a fresh start with new weapons to work with.
In 2023, nobody in Carolina liked to get open, forcing Bryce Young into sticky situations behind a porous offensive line. In comes Diontae Johnson, a route running specialist joined with two early draft pick weapons at receiver and running back.
The belief in Bryce Young is at an all-time low, but even less believed in Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield just a few years ago.
New @Panthers HC Dave Canales helped Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield have career years.
What will Bryce Young's stats look like in their first year together? 👀 pic.twitter.com/sqJDIxATM7
— NFL (@NFL) June 4, 2024
Javonte Williams, RB - Denver Broncos
Not all ACL tears are the same. Breece Hall finished as the RB2 last season after a clean ACL tear the year prior. Javonte Williams' tear was not “clean,” as he also tore his LCL and PCL making his knee injury much more severe. Expecting Williams to be back to his normal self in less than a year is asking too much.
A more comparable injury was J.K. Dobbins' ACL tear in 2020. Although Dobbins injured his Achilles last year, his second year after his ACL-LCL injury looked great, rushing for 5.7 yards per carry and nearly 400 yards in his final four games of 2022.
Not only is Javonte the rare workhorse prototype at running back, but in an offense that values backfield targets more than anyone. Denver gave nearly 30% of targets to running backs in 2023, five percent more than any other team. That has no signs of changing with Bo Nix who specialized, and excelled, in the short passing game at Oregon.
The question for Williams is volume. If his efficiency can return to what it was, he should be able to fend off players like Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin to get workhorse volume.
#Broncos HC Sean Payton on Javonte Williams yesterday: “He’s been looking good. I think historically speaking, when you talk to the experts, they say that the complete heal finishes at two years. Obviously you begin playing before then, but he’s been doing well. He’s in shape. I… pic.twitter.com/L0HfmzQXwr
— Cody Roark (@CodyRoarkNFL) May 31, 2024
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