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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for October 5 and 6, 2023 Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets with the results from Week 5.
It was another fun week in the last great college football season. Utah finally fell without Cameron Rising. Michigan made a statement in Lincoln. The Irish pulled out another close one. It may only be the beginning of October, but MACtion is in full effect already.
We have four more games before the weekend this week. Yesterday's picks were in the DFS article. I thought about doing the same today, but I need to go back over last week. I have a bad feeling about it, but I did nail my only max bet (James Madison -2.5).
I won't pick FBS vs. FCS schools. Those lines usually aren't offered up until Friday at the earliest. Judging by what most FBS teams did to their inferior foes out of conference, they won't be very lucrative for you either. Besides, I don't want to pick more 40+ point spreads than I have to. There aren't many of these left with most teams entering conference play, but we still have three or four stragglers hanging around again this week.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 6 (10/5-6/23)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Sam Houston at Liberty (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Sam Houston finally scored some touchdowns last week, but they were playing fellow FBS newcomer Jacksonville State. Liberty is a whole different animal. Give me the Flames.
Western Kentucky (-5.5) at Louisiana Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This spread tells me that Vegas thinks Hank Bachmeier is playing. Can he cover Malachi Corley? Didn't think so. WKU by double digits.
Kansas State (-11.5) at Oklahoma State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is all over the place. If you want 10.5, you had better hurry. Most places have it at 11. I've seen it as high as 12.5. 11.5 seems to be the mean, so that's what I pick. Honestly, one point doesn't make that much of a difference. Not when one team plays three quarterbacks and three running backs. Those paddles won't save the Pokes even if they could use them on opposing players. Give me K-State.
Nebraska at Illinois (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Call me crazy, but this feels high. Illinois got dump-trucked by a Purdue team that hadn't beaten an FBS team yet. Fresno, Syracuse, and Wisconsin are solid teams, but Illinois should have at least put up a fight. I watched the Toledo game again last week just to see if I missed anything, and I still have no idea how Illinois won. Give me Nebraska.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from this season so far. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Middle Tennessee State at Western Kentucky (-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Hilltoppers should be best friends with the boys in Vegas. They score a ton of points. That defense is much better than the last two years though. Will it lead to a CUSA title?
Temple at Tulsa (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Temple is like the Blue Cyclone. I need to leave them alone.
Jacksonville State (-6.5) at Sam Houston: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It took overtime, but the Gamecocks finally got the cover. When the college football elitists fracture FBS, I'm sure going to miss games like this. This embodied everything that is great about college football.
Louisville (-3.5) at North Carolina State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The half saved me. The Pack didn't win outright, but they certainly made Louisville sweat yet another one. One of these games, they're not going to survive. Maybe this week...
(10) Utah at (19) Oregon State (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This became a three-point bet once Rising was ruled out. I canceled my Utah outright bets and laid that $20 on the Beavers instead. Yes, Utah was missing their top two running backs, Brant Kuithe, and Cameron Rising. The defense still played a good game and D.J. Uiagalelei still led the Beavers to a victory. When is that Silas Bolden statue going up in Corvallis?
Silas Bolden ????
Touchdown Oregon State pic.twitter.com/L19rEODuym
— T.J. Mathewson (@tjmathewson) September 30, 2023
Louisiana Tech at UTEP (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There's nothing wrong with Jack Turner. He doesn't have a prolific arm, but the Bulldogs love to run anyway. If I had a running back like Tyre Shelton, I would too...
Cincinnati (-1.5) at BYU: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Two words: Chase freaking Roberts!
Career day for BYU WR Chase Roberts as the Cougars go 4-1 with their first Big 12 conference win:
? 6 receptions.
? 131 yards
? 1 touchdownCincinnati 27 BYU 35. #CollegeFootball | #BYUFootball
— Oliver Hodgkinson (@ojhodgkinson) September 30, 2023
(6) Penn State (-26.5) at Northwestern: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Penn State took control of this game late, but I was cursing Northwestern for the first 90 minutes or so.
(8) USC (-21.5) at Colorado: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
USC was running off with this game until the altitude got to them in the second half. We didn't know at the time that the Trojans would need all six Caleb Williams touchdowns to escape Boulder with a win.
Combined stats for TCU’s Chandler Morris, Oregon’s Bo Nix and USC’s Caleb Williams:
vs. Colorado: 4 INT in 115 attempts
vs. Other teams: 1 INT in 372 attempts#cubuffs— Brian Howell (@BrianHowell33) October 4, 2023
(22) Florida at Kentucky (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I am 100% convinced that the only people that think Florida is a good team work at ESPN. This was the biggest win in the series by Kentucky since 1979. Most of you weren't alive then. Hell, most RotoBaller writers weren't alive then.
Texas A&M (-5.5) vs. Arkansas at Jerry World: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
You can't say that Arkansas didn't have their chances to take control of this game. The Aggies defense smothered K.J. Jefferson and Raheim Sanders.
Louisiana at Minnesota (-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This makes up for the halves that burned me last week. Louisiana looked good early in this game, but too many good backs for Minnesota wore them down.
Utah State (-5.5) at Connecticut: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Aggies came away with a win, but not by enough. McCae Hillstead getting hurt was a blessing in disguise for the Aggies. They were doing nothing on offense, then Cooper Legas comes in and completes 11 of 13 passes with three touchdowns. Legas even led the Aggies in rushing!
Clemson (-6.5) at Syracuse: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There is absolutely nothing wrong with the Clemson defense. The offense caught up, for one week at least.
UAB at Tulane (-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This wasn't a knock on Tulane. UAB is a solid team. Georgia just has a habit of making opposing teams look a lot worse than they actually are.
South Alabama at James Madison (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Dukes held a 17-point lead at the half, but Carter Bradley brought the Jags back enough in the second half to make me sweat this.
Buffalo at Akron (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This game destroyed the under despite going into overtime. Akron didn't score in the second half or overtime. This was just ugly, ugly football.
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I give up. I have lost 43 points on the Eagles in the last 2.3 years. None of what they do makes sense. The Eagles got blanked by Jacksonville State, then almost beat a Chippewas team that won in Mobile last week. Go figure...
Virginia at Boston College (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Virginia controlled the first half of this game, but the defense lost control in the second half. It was Boston College's defense that came up big when it mattered.
Miami (OH) (-14.5) at Kent State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Redhawks defense could win them another MAC title.
Arizona State at California (-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Do you want to know why I'm calling Arizona State the Fun Devils this year? Cam Skattebo says it all. Oh, and that's his quarterback going up and making that fourth-down catch. Fun indeed!
Wow what a catch from QB Bourguet!
Also I have loved this Skattebo kid since the spring. pic.twitter.com/Zt5jNsS6hE
— Brad Powers (@BradPowers7) October 4, 2023
(1) Georgia (-14.5) at Auburn: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Auburn fought the good fight despite still spotty quarterback play. Brock Bowers is the only reason Georgia is still number one (in these polls, anyway).
Brock Bowers has to be the TOUGHEST player to take down in the nation ?
Bowers currently leads all TE’s in receptions (30) through five games.
Leads all TE’s in receiving yards (413) through five games.
And leads all TE’s across the nation in missed tackles forced (13).
The… pic.twitter.com/gBdiHlFPg6
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) October 5, 2023
(2) Michigan (-17.5) at Nebraska: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Jim Harbaugh had zero intentions of letting up in this game.
(24) Kansas at (3) Texas (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It took Texas a while to take control of this game, even with Jalon Daniels out. That gives me just a little sliver of hope for this week...
Indiana at Maryland (-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have went higher on this. That Indiana offense is a wreck, but don't blame Trayvon Jackson. That line is getting wrecked by everyone.
Illinois at Purdue (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It seems like every week I underestimate just how bad that Illinois defense really is.
Bowling Green at Georgia Tech (-22.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I finally back the Wreck and they get wrecked by the Falcons. World, meet Terion Stewart. He'll be winning you some money in mid-week MACtion DFS tournaments this fall.
Houston at Texas Tech (-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Donovan Smith shined in his return to Lubbock, but special teams defined this game for the Red Raiders. Drae McCray returned a kickoff for a touchdown. Tech also blocked a punt for a touchdown. Houston being gouged on the ground didn't help either.
Baylor at Central Florida (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was patting myself on the back for this one until Central Florida blew a 28-point lead in the last 20 minutes of the game. I almost flipped when I found out Blake Shapen was playing. I should have. He makes a big difference in this Baylor offense. He can actually get the ball to Monaray Baldwin. This was one of the better games that I've watched this year.
Arkansas State at Massachusetts (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew this line was bogus. I should have had more confidence in it. Jaylen Raynor threw six touchdowns on that awful UMass defense.
South Florida at Navy (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Navy forced Byrum Brown to beat them through the air. He was glad to oblige.
88 yard TD pass from BB17 to Sean Atkins pic.twitter.com/x9PeJfQFKT
— ?Sidelines-USF? (@SSN_USF) October 1, 2023
Old Dominion at Marshall (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It pains me to say it, but Rasheen Ali wasn't the best back in this game. Kadarius Calloway was.
Old Dominion RB Kadarius calloway had 236 yards rushing and 3 TD against Marshall and 214 of those yards came on three carries pic.twitter.com/LLLKw9VbzW
— Colton Denning (@Dubsco) October 1, 2023
Ball State at Western Michigan (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The home team was the right play. The under was not.
Northern Illinois at Toledo (-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Dequan Finn played and the Rockets still almost lost this. That defense is kind of a mess right now.
(23) Missouri (-13.5) at Vanderbilt: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Brady Cook still didn't throw an interception. Someone who takes care of the ball like that makes Missouri a dangerous team.
Boise State at Memphis (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Boise jumped out to a 17-0 lead, but couldn't hang on.
Hawaii at UNLV (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Jayden Maiava has UNLV playing well. A solid quarterback can do wonders for a team. Hawaii has that, but their defense is one of the worst.
New Mexico at Wyoming (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Harrison Waylee had a huge game for the Cowboys, but the defense had a fourth quarter letdown.
(13) LSU (-2.5) at (20) Mississippi: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
My new dream matchup for a bowl game is LSU and USC. There isn't a scoreboard alive that can tally the points these offenses would put up on these terrible defenses.
(9) Oregon (-27.5) at Stanford: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Ducks didn't even score in the first quarter and still piled on 42 points.
Iowa State at (14) Oklahoma (-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was a little concerned when Iowa State hung 20 points in the first half, but the defense came up big after the break. Dillon Gabriel looks like the quarterback we thought we were getting last year.
Dillon Gabriel has made serious improvements early in the 2023 season in his down-by down throwing accuracy:
2022 (12 games)
1st Down: 64.1%
2nd Down: 70.6%
3rd Down: 53.4%2023 (5 games)
1st Down: 76.9%
2nd Down: 74.4%
3rd Down: 70.6% pic.twitter.com/0ItBL3w1g7— Sooner Script (@SoonerScript) October 3, 2023
East Carolina at Rice (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The East Carolina looked serviceable in this one, but it still wasn't enough.
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It was the normally accurate Grayson McCall throwing a pick-fest in this one. The Eagles picked him off four times and still only won by 10.
Troy at Georgia State (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I didn't see Troy walking into Atlanta and thrashing the Panthers. This was a beatdown even if the Trojans only won by 21.
Texas State (-5.5) at Southern Mississippi: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Texas State might be the third-best team in Texas. You know, there are 13 FBS teams in Texas. I think they should just have a round-robin for the season playing each other.
(11) Notre Dame (-5.5) at (17) Duke: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Not only did the Irish hand Duke their first loss, but they likely handed them a few more by injuring Riley Leonard. That said, The Duke defense was excellent for the first 57 minutes of the game. Two lapses on the final drive doomed them.
South Carolina at (21) Tennessee (-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
South Carolina's offensive line might be the worst of any Power Five school. I wish I were joking, because Spencer Rattler is having an impressive season. The Tennessee defense did absolutely nothing against Florida, but came out of this one looking like the Seahawks.
Michigan State at Iowa (-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Iowa offense still sucks. That's my totem so I know I'm awake.
Charlotte at SMU (-23.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm glad that Jaylan Knighton transferred. We get to see more plays like then when he's not sharing a backfield.
.@Jaylan_Knighton's 95-yd TD run is tied for the second-longest run in program history.@SMUStatsInfo | #PonyUpDallas pic.twitter.com/hV2Pce73MV
— SMU Football (@SMUFB) October 1, 2023
Pittsburgh (-2.5) at Virginia Tech: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Phil Jurkovec's case of the yips may be over, but the Panthers stil aren't running the ball well and the defense has been gouged at times.
West Virginia at TCU (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That West Virginia defense is as good as any in the conference with the exception of Texas. The front seven of the Longhorns is on another level right now.
Appalachian State (-13.5) at Louisiana-Monroe: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wow...App State needed a 54-yard field goal to walk this off. What a performance by the Warhawks.
San Diego State at Air Force (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Not only did Air Force grind the Aztecs into the turf, but Zach Larrier also threw for 189 yards. It's almost not fair...
(12) Alabama (-14.5) at Mississippi State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
All that talk about Jalen Milroe losing the job? It's called a red herring. Alabama just let the backups get some reps against USF because they knew they wouldn't lose.
(7) Washington (-18.5) at Arizona: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Arizona hung around without Jayden de Laura and Michael Wiley. Michael Penix didn't throw a touchdown. The world is upside down. All conspiracy theories are true. This is the kind of game that makes you question what you think is true.
Nevada at Fresno State (-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Fresno's win streak continues, even if it isn't always pretty.
College Football Betting Season Results
I had a strong overall week at 31-25 to put me at 140-132 on the season. That's a 51.8% success rate, so I'll take it! I know I didn't win as many points this week since my four-point bets tanked. How bad was it?
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 4-1 (14-20) = -6
2. 13-10 (56-51) = 10
3. 11-7 (46-38) = 24
4. 2-7 (13-19) = -24
5. 1-0 (11-4) = 35
I still won six points. Anything that isn't a loss is a good week. I now have 39 points on the season and am chipping away at the deficit. I am now down 72 points in six-plus years of the points system. I'm on the way to paying back a disastrous 2021 season. I intend to get that out of the red this year. Stay tuned!
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