Treylon Burks - 2023 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate

September 3, 2023

Kevin Campbell's fantasy football analysis for wide receiver Treylon Burks. Is this NFL second-year wideout a 2023 fantasy football breakout candidate?

In the ever-evolving landscape of fantasy football, identifying breakout candidates is a thrill that fuels the excitement of every manager. As the 2023 season approaches, one name that's resonating with fantasy enthusiasts is Treylon Burks. With a unique blend of skills, a promising NFL trajectory, and a track record of standout performances, Burks is poised to make his mark as a breakout player in the fantasy realm.

At the heart of Burks' potential lies a skill set that seamlessly translates to fantasy success. His college career was marked by versatility, explosiveness, and an innate ability to make game-changing plays. Whether it's his capacity to create separation, excel in contested catch situations, or generate yards after the catch, Burks' advanced metrics paint a picture of a receiver who can impact various facets of the game -- a quality that bodes well for fantasy production.

Moreover, Burks' promising transition to the NFL augments his breakout candidacy. As he dons the Tennessee Titans' jersey, his expanding role within the offense positions him to command a significant target share. Even with the addition of star wideout DeAndre Hopkins, the stage is set for Burks to emerge as a primary weapon in the passing game. As quarterbacks look for reliable, dynamic targets, Burks' ability to excel in red zone scenarios and create big plays positions him as a player poised to exceed expectations and make a resounding impact on fantasy rosters across the board.

Exploring the Advanced Stats of 2022: A Peek into Potential

A few weeks ago, Burks did have a bit of an injury scare. But as we can see below, he is now healthy and working on improving his already amazing hands.

Before we delve into why Burks is poised for a breakout, let's scrutinize some of his stats from the 2022 season. These metrics provide a window into his potential impact:

Targets: 54

Target Share: 17.6%

Target Rate: 23.8%

Snap Share: 59%

Routes Run: 227

Route Participation: 70.2%

Air Yards: 658

aDOT: 12.2

Receptions: 33

Receiving Yards: 444

TDs: 2

Yards Per Route Run: 1.96

Looking at the stats, his rookie season was….okay, but not great. Due to injury, Burks played in only 11 games and was hit or miss in the games he did play. His 54 targets were also below our generally acceptable rookie wide receiver threshold (we like to see at least 60).

Despite this, his 17.6% target share and 23.8% target rate were both quite good, with the higher target rate a potential indicator of success. Additionally, his 70% route participation rate shows he was on the field a lot during his rookie year, and his 1.96 YPRR ranked #32 in the league. These indicators potentially set him up for future success.

While Burks was good in 2022, the Titans made some player changes this past offseason. One of their biggest signings was wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins comes over from the Arizona Cardinals and has historically been the main alpha receiver in the offenses he's been a part of.

As a result, many think this signing is the beginning of the end for Burks as a fantasy-relevant player. Another case against Burks involves the Titans historically being able to handle only one fantasy-relevant receiver in their passing game. Essentially, the argument for Burks' demise centers around Tennessee being a low-volume, run-happy offense.

Reasons To Buy On Treylon Burks

In spite of this, Burks is actually one of my favorite players to target.

The signing of Hopkins doesn’t necessarily signal the end of fantasy relevancy. Even though the Titans' offense is more low volume than most, Hopkins should command most of the opposition's elite corners, opening Burks up on the other side of the field. This should allow him to use his natural ability to take over. 

Second, Burks had a higher aDOT last year than receivers Jerry Jeudy, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, & D.K. Metcalf, all of whom had excellent seasons. Much of his work was done in the mid to deep portions of the field. Since he won’t be lining up against those elite corners, his reception and yardage totals should only increase.

Third, he had only two touchdowns last year on four red zone targets. Burks' prowess in contested catches is particularly intriguing in these scenarios. With the Titans seeking dependability near the end zone, his skills could make him one of Ryan Tannehill's favorite red zone targets. If so, this would boost his fantasy stock significantly.

Fourth, Burks now has another year of acclimation to the speed of the NFL under his belt. Moving forward, that additional experience should only increase his ever-developing skill set.

Fifth, despite the addition of Hopkins, Burks' project point totals are expected to increase. In fact, most fantasy analysts think his stats will double from last year. Should this occur, it will only improve his total value in fantasy leagues, not subtract from them.

Finally, even though the Titans signed Hopkins, his contract is only for two years. This could indicate they believe in his ability over the long term. It could be a future-oriented move by the Titans to see what they have in Burks and if he can eventually become their next A.J. Brown.

He's still young (23) enough to be the receiver Tennessee hoped it was getting after trading Brown to the Eagles. Additionally, Burks' draft capital implies that the Titans haven't yet given up on him, so it would be unwise for fantasy managers to do the same. Feel free to check out some of his incredible catches from last year in the highlights below:

The Bottom Line: Investing in the Breakout

In fantasy football, the thrill of identifying and investing in breakout candidates is unparalleled. Treylon Burks checks all the boxes for a player on the upswing.

Armed with advanced stats that underscore his playmaking ability, versatility, and potential for red zone impact, he's a player who could provide significant value in the upcoming season. Draft him now as a WR3 for your fantasy team and reap the rewards before your league mates know what hit them.

As previously mentioned, most analysts are projecting an improvement in his stats. Here at RotoBaller, you can find out more by signing up for our premium services. Simply click here to sign up, save 10% by using the affiliate code “KEVO”, and get award-winning assistance to help you dominate your league! 

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