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If you don't appreciate a good bold prediction, you don't like fun. Bold predictions are inherently fun and elicit strong reactions from lots of people. Now, bold predictions, while bold of course, should have sound justification for why they could come to fruition. While I really like Nyheim Hines this season, stating he'll be a top-10 running back just isn't feasible without a Jonathan Taylor injury (which nobody wants).
Bold predictions should be things you have strong conviction in for one reason or another. Maybe a guy got paid a lot of money to be the focal point of an offense, or maybe you see an offense ascending into a different stratosphere because of a coaching change. For whatever the reason may be, have conviction and "show your work" as they used to say in math class. You can get partial credit by having a good, well-thought-out process!
Without further ado, below are my five bold predictions for the 2022 fantasy football season.
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Christian Kirk Finishes as a Top-20 WR
Kirk was prioritized in a big way by the Jacksonville Jaguars this offseason. He received a four-year, $72 million contract with $37 million guaranteed. He's the 18th-highest paid wide receiver on a per-year basis. He'll finish inside the top-20 wide receivers this season because he's paid as a top-20 wide receiver this season...only kidding, but seriously, he's got a shot to be great this season with the Jaguars.
It wasn't too long that Kirk was the leading receiver for the Cardinals. In 2019, he led all Cardinal receivers with a 24.5% target share and 26.7% target rate (per PlayerProfiler). That was good for 8.3 targets per game over the course of 13 games. Second was then 36-year-old Larry Fitzgerald, who had a 20.6% target share and 23.4% target rate (good for 6.8 targets per game).
Then the Cardinals traded for DeAndre Hopkins ahead of the 2020 season and Kirk's target share has since dipped. But now he's THE GUY once again in Jacksonville, playing alongside Marvin Jones, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram. Kirk should have no problem leading the way in targets. In fact, he was an absolute target hog in his first preseason game with Trevor Lawrence.
In 2019, Kirk was the WR31 in PPR on a points per game (PPG) basis despite scoring just three touchdowns on the season. The Cardinals threw 34.6 times per game that season, and I'd expect the Jaguars to throw even more in 2022 with Doug Pederson at the helm. In Pederson's last three seasons in Philadelphia, the Eagles threw at least 37 times per game. Expect Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars to air it out early and often this season, with Kirk being the primary beneficiary.
One last point. Kirk's best comparable on PlayerProfiler is Stefon Diggs. Remember what happened when Diggs went to Buffalo and became the alpha dog for the Bills in 2020? He went from being a top-20 wide receiver in Minnesota to being a top-five wide receiver in Buffalo. Kirk won't be a top-five guy, but he'll experience a similar boost with his move to Jacksonville.
Travis Kelce Finishes Outside the Top-2 TEs for the First Time Since 2015
"Adam, come on, there's just NO WAY Travis Kelce won't be the overall TE1 like he's been the past SIX seasons." I'm sure that's what you're thinking. And for each of the last five years, we've valued Kelce as such. He's been a staple in the middle to late part of the first round for fantasy managers looking for a positional advantage at the tight end position. That all changes this season, you heard it here first.
Now, in no way, shape, or form am I suggesting Kelce still won't be awesome. He will be, he's just not worthy of a first-round pick, or possibly even a second-round pick. It won't happen, but Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts should be drafted ahead of Kelce this season. In 2023, I'm predicting that'll be the consensus (Pitts - 1, Andrews - 2, Kelce - 3). But why?
Well, for starters, Pitts is 21-years-old, Andrews is 26-years-old, and Kelce is 32-years-old. But that doesn't necessarily mean anything. What does mean something is Kelce's opportunity share falling off in 2021. His 22.1% target share and 24.9% target rate were his lowest since the 2016 season. That was despite leading all tight ends in routes run with 543, or 33.9 per game.
Kelce also saw a decrease in slot snaps in 2021 (251 vs. 283 in 2020, 280 in 2019, and 325 in 2018). When it comes to being peppered with targets, we typically want as many slot snaps as possible. The decrease is of concern, especially when you consider the Chiefs replaced Tyreek Hill with JuJu Smith-Schuster, one of the league's premier slot receivers in the last five years. Not only did they add JuJu, but they signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling and drafted Skyy Moore in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft.
There's no doubt Kelce will still operate as Patrick Mahomes' safety blanket again in 2022, but to what extent will he return value like he has the past six seasons? Andrews finished with more fantasy points per game in 2021 and from everything we're hearing and seeing in Atlanta, Pitts is comin' in HOT!
So for the first time since 2015, Kelce will finish OUTSIDE the top-two TEs in fantasy football.
Jalen Hurts Finishes as THE Overall QB1 in Fantasy Football
Spicy, right!? Hardly. In Hurts' first full season as the Eagles starting quarterback, he finished as the QB6 with 21.4 fantasy points per game. And that was also Nick Sirianni's first season as head coach in Philadelphia. But let's break down why Hurts could ascend all the way up to the number one overall QB in 2022.
For starters, he's one of the league's premier dual-threat quarterbacks. Last season, he rushed 139 times for 784 yards and 10 touchdowns. His 10 touchdowns matched Ezekiel Elliott, who had 97 more rush attempts than Hurts. Believe it or not, Hurts had nearly double the number of rush attempts inside the five-yard line as Josh Allen did in 2021 (13 vs. 7). So for starters, Hurts' floor is incredibly high. In fact, one could argue it's nearly impossible for him to finish outside the top-five quarterbacks in 2022 because of it.
It was essentially a tale of two seasons for the Eagles in 2021. Between Weeks 1 and 7, Hurts attempted 34.6 passes per game and subsequently averaged 25 fantasy points per game. Between Weeks 8 and 17, Hurts averaged just 23.8 pass attempts per game. Over that stretch, he produced just 18.3 fantasy points per game. So what happened?
Well, for the first six games of the season, the Eagles had three very solid pass catchers in DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Zach Ertz. Then Ertz got traded and the game plan changed from being pass heavy to going full-on ground and pound.
So what'd the Eagles do in the offseason? They went out and replaced Ertz with one of the most elite pass-catchers in the National Football League in A.J. Brown. You don't trade for Brown without the idea you're going to throw the ball more. The Eagles' best players are Hurts, Brown, Smith, and Goedert, all of whom make up the passing attack. It would make sense for them to throw 35+ times per game with those weapons.
So, given Hurts was the overall QB2 between Weeks 1 and 7 (over Josh Allen) in 2021, there's a real possibility he finishes at the very top in 2022 with a trio of elite pass-catchers at his disposal. Do not sleep on Jalen Hurts and his immense upside this season.
Keenan Allen Doesn't Crack the Top-20 WRs
When we think of Keenan Allen, we think of a consistent top-10 receiver. It's been that way the past five seasons. He's been even better in PPR formats, catching an average of 102 balls on 150 targets per year. It doesn't get much more consistent than that.
Much like Travis Kelce, Allen saw his lowest target share (25.1%) and target rate (26.7%) last season since 2016. But what's even more concerning for Allen is the two other pass-catchers he will be playing alongside. For starters, if you remove the game Williams played just a third of the snaps last season, he nearly had as many fantasy points per game (13 vs. 13.1).
Williams also has the incredible ceiling that Allen probably no longer possesses. You'll recall through Week 5 that he was tied with Cooper Kupp as the WR1 overall with 20.1 fantasy points per game. If you want the high ceiling, it's Big Mike. The floor (in a full PPR league) might be Allen, but maybe not so fast. The other variable is looming in 2022.
That other variable is Joshua Palmer, who ascended late last season into a very viable WR3 option for the Los Angeles Chargers. He's going to earn targets at a much higher rate than former Chargers WR3 Jalen Guyton, that's for sure. Take a look at Keenan Allen's splits down the stretch last season and you'll notice the dip in opportunity alongside Palmer:
Allen's snap share also dropped from 90.7% from Weeks 1 to 13 to 81.8% from Week 15 on (when Palmer overtook Guyton for WR3 duties). I promise you Joshua Palmer will be a thing for the Chargers this season, and it'll unfortunately come at the expense of Keenan Allen:
Leonard Fournette Finishes as a Top-5 RB in PPR
There's no good explanation for why Fournette is going outside the top-12 running backs right now. He got off to a slow start last season, but that was out of his control. He didn't truly take the reigns of the backfield until Week 4 when he got an 82% snap share. Between Weeks 1 and 3, Fournette only played on an average of 50% of the snaps and averaged just 12.7 opportunities per game.
Things changed after Fournette was handed the backfield in Week 4. From that game against the Patriots through Week 14, he averaged 21 opportunities (14.7 rush attempts and 6.3 targets) on a 70% snap share. Fournette was the RB5 during that stretch, averaging 21.3 PPR fantasy points per game.
And there's room for improvement. Fournette didn't score a touchdown in almost half of those 10 games between Weeks 4 and 14. On the season, he scored 10 touchdowns on 264 opportunities. That's just a touchdown every 26.4 opportunities. In comparison, Austin Ekeler scored a touchdown every 15 opportunities last season. Both guys are on high-powered offenses that were top-five in plays per game in 2021. While Ekeler is certainly in for some negative regression, Fournette, on the other hand, should see his touchdown rate positively regress in 2022.
And for those worried about Rachaad White, don't be. The Buccaneers gave Fournette a three-year extension worth $21 million, with $12 million guaranteed. As long as Tom Brady is the quarterback of this team, Fournette will continue to play a heavy majority of the snaps. And even if White takes some snaps, it's not likely to be anything more than 30% as long as Lenny is healthy.
Buy low on Fournette and reap the benefits all season long!
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