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Baseball is an interesting sport. It can be kind to players one year and cruel the next. That would be the case for these five outfielders who had diminished offensive production in 2023. Therefore, in 2024, they are looking to bounce back in a big way for their respective clubs.
For some, injuries may have plagued them in 2023, limiting their plate appearances and ability to produce. For others, it was their first year with a new team. That sense of unfamiliarity can sometimes throw a hitter off their game, so with another year under their belt and an offseason to adjust, it may help them return to form.
Let's take a look at some outfielder candidates who are primed for a bounce-back campaign in 2024.
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Giancarlo Stanton, RF, New York Yankees
In case you forgot, Juan Soto is now a New York Yankee, alleviating some pressure on Giancarlo Stanton to perform at the same level as Aaron Judge. Stanton is entering his age-34 season after struggling mightily in 2023. He wasn't all to blame for New York's disappointing season, though, as the entire offense was weak, ranking second to last in team batting average (.227), 27th in on-base percentage (.304), and 22nd in slugging percentage (.397).
Since joining the Yankees in 2018, Stanton posted his worst offensive season yet in pinstripes, with 24 home runs, 60 RBI, and a .695 OPS in 101 games last year. His 24 homers were the lowest total he's posted in a single season (minimum 50 games) since 2013. He was worth -0.8 WAR as a result. It's no secret that the slugger has been plagued by several injuries, particularly since joining the Yanks, with general manager Brian Cashman calling it a "part of his game."
Despite being named an All-Star in 2022, Stanton has slashed .202/.286/.442 with 261 strikeouts to just 91 walks in 867 plate appearances across two seasons. Fans on social media also brought Stanton's sluggish movements on the basepaths to attention. Perhaps in response, it's been reported that the 6-foot-6, 245-pound designated hitter was working to trim down this offseason. He still possesses tremendous power, ranking in the 94th and 96th percentile, respectively, in Barrel % and average exit velocity.
Giancarlo Stanton hits his 400th home run to give the Yankees the lead! pic.twitter.com/QdLu0Nbrxb
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) September 6, 2023
With the additions of Soto and Alex Verdugo to the outfield, Stanton will serve (barring health) as New York's primary designated hitter in 2024, which is great news for the Yankees and fantasy owners. With an ADP of 269.7, he's a low-risk, high-reward option in the middle-to-late rounds of fantasy drafts. ATC projects him to hit 26 home runs in 2024 and 67 RBI.
Christian Yelich, LF, Milwaukee Brewers
I know, I know. We've all been predicting Christian Yelich's bounce-back season for about three years. But the two-time All-Star showed much improvement in 2023, which could foreshadow what's coming in 2024. He probably won't return to that MVP form we saw in 2018 and 2019, winning him two batting titles. He nearly achieved a 20-20 campaign (19 HRs, 28 stolen bases) last year, and he raised his batting average by 26 ticks. Yelich added 34 doubles and 78 walks in 632 plate appearances, even slightly bringing down his K% from the previous year.
A Christian Yelich 3-run home run gives the @Brewers a 4-1 lead!
📺 MLB Network + Corona Premier / @CoronaUSA pic.twitter.com/EV75shpCWe
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 6, 2023
Like Stanton, Yelich has dealt with nagging injuries for a couple of years, which have led to a hefty decline in offensive production. But the 32-year-old made some fairly significant adjustments at the plate in 2023 that could lead one to conclude that he's on the comeback trail. Brewer Fanatic's Jake McKibbin took a deep dive into Yelich's approach and how his first pitch swing rate correlates to his slugging numbers. McKibbin points out that Yelich elected to be more patient and work the count, and the results were positive.
The three-time Silver Slugger continues to make hard contact, but instead of lifting the ball over the fences like he used to, he's driving the ball and finding luck in it dropping for hits, as exemplified by his .342 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). A hitter's offensive profile can change, but it would benefit the Brewers greatly if he could find his power stroke again. Yelich is a safe pick in the early-to-middle rounds with an ADP of 71 in March.
Michael Conforto, OF, San Francisco Giants
After missing the entire 2022 campaign due to an injury, Michael Conforto signed with the Giants in January 2023 and appeared in 125 games for the club last year. The former first-round pick connected on 15 HRs in 470 plate appearances, added 58 RBI, 53 walks, and struck out 106 times, culminating in a .718 OPS. Of course, only so much was to be expected of him after missing an entire season and joining a new team after being in the Mets organization since 2014. He also was still not fully healthy.
That's all about to change, though. Conforto said he's healthy heading into the 2024 season and claimed it will be a "game-changer" for him. The one-time All-Star admitted that he didn't feel like himself until mid-May last season when he batted .289 and hit seven HRs across 26 games. He wasn't quite ready for the grind of 162 games outside of that productive stretch.
He turned in his best season back in 2019 when he set career highs in doubles (29), HRs (33) and RBI (92). He was 26 then, but now, entering his age-31 season, Conforto hopes to translate his success in May last year into a full year's worth. To be frank, the advanced stats aren't in his favor. While he can still take pitches, work counts, and draw walks, his power has largely disappeared.
Even though it is doubtful that Conforto suddenly hit 30 home runs again, being fully healthy and having a renewed mindset can work wonders for a ballplayer. The Giants signed free agent outfielder Jorge Soler in the offseason to be the team's primary designated hitter. However, Conforto is expected to be San Fran's primary left fielder along with offseason acquisition Jung Hoo Lee in center field, and Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Slater splitting time in right. His ADP of 569 in March makes him a perfect late-round flier in upcoming fantasy drafts.
Michael Harris II, CF, Atlanta Braves
The Braves had two players named finalists for NL Rookie of the Year in 2022 in Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider, but Harris II wound up taking home the award. In 114 games, the then-21-year-old hit 19 HRs, drove in 64 runs, and stole 20 bases, all while playing solid defense in center field.
However, instead of capitalizing on those numbers in his second year in the bigs, Harris experienced somewhat of a sophomore slump. He played in 24 more games but hit fewer HRs and stole the same number of bases. Through May 31, he slashed a putrid .174/.260/.266 and struck out 29 times across 123 PA. Luckily, the Braves lineup is so deep that he typically batted in the nine-hole, and his teammates picked up the slack for him.
Michael Harris II to the concourse! pic.twitter.com/hno71Kdotb
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) August 26, 2023
By the time the second half rolled around, though, Harris looked more like the All-Star-caliber player he resembled in his rookie year. He batted .325, belted nine HRs, and had 31 RBI to close the year. He also decreased his ground-ball rate and strikeout rate from the previous season. And if this isn't enough to give you optimism, then his advanced metrics will. He placed in the top 10 percent in the league in max exit velocity at 113.9, the 86th percentile in hard-hit percentage, and 98th in xBA.
He's an ideal candidate to break out in 2024 and has a solid upside that could see an uptick in HRs and perhaps his first All-Star Game appearance. An ADP of 40 makes him the most valuable on this list and ATC projects him to hit 22 homers.
Taylor Ward, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Struggling to find consistent playing time from 2018-21, Taylor Ward finally broke through in 2022 for the Angels. He hit a career-high 23 HRs and slashed a respectable .281/.360/.473 across 564 PA. He was hopeful to add to that offensive output in 2023 but suffered a couple of injuries that limited him to just 97 games. He had a .756 OPS with 14 HRs and 47 RBI in those appearances. Ward has put up three consecutive seasons in which he achieved at least a 100 wRC+.
With Shohei Ohtani gone, Anthony Rendon's penchant for missing games, and Mike Trout's recent injury history, Ward would ideally step up as one of Los Angeles' more productive bats. Luckily, the 30-year-old is expected to be ready for spring training after being hit in the face by a pitch in July that subsequently ended his season. Should Ward remain healthy through spring training and beyond, he'll slot in as the Angels' everyday left fielder.
The side angle of Taylor Ward’s go-ahead home run is a thing of beauty pic.twitter.com/CCQZEjRKsY
— Brent Maguire (@bmags94) May 5, 2022
Regular playing time and expanding his role will hopefully allow Ward to build upon his solid 2022 season. He can contribute through both runs and RBI and, as mentioned, he is good for a long ball here and there as well. Ward doesn't strike out too often, but he doesn't walk too much, either. He's an intriguing player with a cheap price in fantasy drafts, with an ADP of 220 in March. ATC projects him to hit 20 HRs, have 68 RBI, and score 74 runs.
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