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For the past 10 years I've written a long NFL draft review with career predictions for hundreds of prospects. Over the past five, I changed my article to giving each player a career prediction grade, outlined in this pick value study.
(5) – All-Pro: Starter who will perform at an elite level at his position.
(4) – Above Average: Starter who will be among the best at his position.
(3) – Solid: Starter or valuable back-up who will have significant positive production.
(2) – Replacement Level: Below average starter or back-up who will make minor contributions.
(1) – Bust: Player who won't amount to anything positive.
It was a ridiculous exercise 10 years ago, and it continued to be something that was hit or miss depending on the reader (and how I predicted their favorite team's draft class). Some years it was well-received, and in other year's there was some negative feedback. And while I've hit on some bold predictions, I've also whiffed at times.
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NFL Draft Review Process
As I've learned more and tweaked my process of evaluating draft prospects, my takes have generally evolved closer to consensus than in the past. I did and do enjoy arguing the contrarian opinion, but only when my evaluations allow me to. One of the reasons for me becoming more "chalky" as an evaluator is that I've learned to think more probabilistically rather than stubbornly asserting there's only one true outcome. I think it's helped me become a better draft analyst, fantasy player, and even real coach.
The truth is that there is a wide range of outcomes for each of these players, and their work ethic, injury luck, and situation will decide their ultimate fate. There's no way of knowing with certainty, and we have way less insight into these players as people than the teams that interviewed them and those around them. George Pickens is incredibly talented, but it's reasonable to question his accountability and durability. He could absolutely develop into a star, and just as easily flame out completely for various reasons. I still like to give a career prediction, but I don't view getting one wrong as some indictment of my evaluation process.
I've decided to update my annual draft review so that I'm not giving any lukewarm takes when I think a guy's career is represented fairly by the market (either draft grade or fantasy value). Instead, I'm going to focus on the players that I do believe have a chance to hit outside two standard deviations of performance. For example, I will predict a player to achieve his 90th percentile outcome based on his talent and draft capital (think Justin Jefferson so far). Or I'll pick a player to bust, achieving just his 10th percentile career outcome (think Jalen Reagor thus far).
Keep in mind that on average 19% of first-round picks bust, and that number goes up in each subsequent round. Draft grades are unrealistically optimistic. I like picking busts because it's realistic and no one else does it.
The Quarterbacks
Before the draft, I profiled all five of the top QBs with an in-depth prospect profile with film clips. You can read them all here. I thought the general public was actually underrating this class, and I thought comparisons to the 2013 class were ridiculous.
Well it looks like NFL teams were more in line with the general public than my pre-draft evaluations.
I recognize that predicting QB success is extremely difficult and that most QBs do disappoint. Like all positions, the further they fall in the draft, the less likely they are to pan out.
Malik Willis was my QB1, and his falling to the third round made me question everything I watched on film. I still love his talent, but I have serious questions about his ability to play QB at the next level given how many times teams decided to pass on such a ridiculously talented player. I wasn't there for the interviews. I didn't get to coach him at the Senior Bowl. His fall is concerning.
However, Willis didn't drop to the third day or anything, and the Titans did trade up to take him. He also now has an opportunity to sit for a year or two and learn the pro game as he jumps all the way up from Liberty. I would be a coward to not pick him to succeed. Malik Willis (4) will grow with Treylon Burks, propelling the Titans to Mike Vrabel's successful second act post-Derrick Henry in three years. You can read my reasons for liking Willis a lot in his prospect profile with film clips.
Since we're on the Titans, I'll add in my predictions for Roger McCreary and Burks. McCreary (3) will develop into a tough matchup as a stud slot corner, which is a position that has struggled in Tennessee for the past few years. He is feisty, tough, and technique-sound, and would've been a first round pick if not for short arms. His game translates well to the inside.
As for Burks, I understand the hesitation based on concerns about not separating consistently as an outside receiver. I also think there are parts of his game that he needs to develop (route-running nuances and press releases) in order to hit his ceiling. I'll pick him to do just that, and I think his loud detractors were overthinking it. He was incredibly productive in the SEC against great defenses, his play speed is much better than his timed speed, and he has the size, physicality, and hands to do everything well, including beast it after the catch. If Willis hits, Burks will too. I think Burks (4) shines as a rookie with Tannehill first. You can read Burks' in-depth prospect profile with film clips here.
Kenny Pickett was the 23rd-ranked player on my board and went 20th overall, so I was fine with the pick and don't think it matters at all that the other QBs fell. It is entirely possible, and probable, that the league was that much higher on Pickett. There are a lot of analysts who think Pickett was a bad prospect due to just one year of above-average production and being an older 23-year-old prospect. Film study also revealed some bad habits in the pocket and a lack of elite arm strength. However, that same film also showed him shine with pinpoint accuracy and impressive mobility on his way to 42 touchdowns and just seven picks, leading Pitt to win the ACC.
I liked Pickett's game more than most, but I recognize his limitations and flaws. However, my final prediction for his career stems from the opposite of a core philosophy as it relates to QB prospects. If a guy didn't produce in college, don't expect him to in the pros. This has led me to accurately predict busts from some of the worst QB picks in history, including E.J. Manuel, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, and Christian Hackenburg. Pickett is like the complete opposite. He was valued and thought of similarly to all of those busts, but he actually had the production.
Pickett will get a chance to compete with Mitch Trubisky for the starting job, and it was a risky pick for the Steelers in the sense that if Trubisky wins the gig, their 20th overall pick won't open a season as a starter until he's 25 years-old at the earliest. The most telling sign of Pickett having success would be beating out Trubisky for the starting job this offseason. If that does happen, I'll feel really good about his career going forward.
My ultimate prediction for Pickett's career is heavily influenced by situation. The Steelers organization has been amazing in that they rarely change Head Coach or Quarterback. The team had already signed Trubisky, who would've been a fine starter for a year or two, and still had enough conviction to draft Pickett in the first round. I think he gets coached well by a first-class organization in a great culture.
I also don't agree with loud analytics folks who point to his age as a huge negative. I get breakout age as a predictive metric for WRs, but QB is a just such a different position entirely. Sometimes it clicks late, and the pandemic surely wasn't great for his development. And my main point is that it's not like he just had a nice year - he put up huge numbers and had really good film. Regardless of how he started his collegiate career, his latest resume (his film), makes him a really good prospect and someone who has shown the ability to improve. 42/7 with 67% completions is nothing to sneeze at.
Finally, Pickett shows an innate ability to locate the football on time to his target. In the end, that's what QB success boils down to. Can he get the ball to his intended target on time? His placement and accuracy are traits that translate. I'll pick Kenny Pickett (3) to succeed and win some playoff games in Pittsburgh.
As for the other three QBs, I don't love their ceilings. Desmond Ridder (2) looked confused against Alabama and had too many missed reads and poorly placed throws for a guy without much creativity and playmaking. I think his likeliest outcome is a back-up level QB and his ceiling is Ryan Tanehill with Arthur Smith. I obviously love his situation in terms of two extremely talented big young targets.
Matt Corral (2) is coming from an RPO-heavy offense and had way too many placement errors. He's talented, but I just don't like his accuracy. Finally, Sam Howell (1) has the second-biggest arm in the class after Willis, and his mobility and rushing success make him an intriguing developmental prospect. However, he struggled a bit with accuracy at the combine and his fall to the fifth-round is a huge red flag. He also only eats chicken fingers. If a fifth-round QB who only eats chicken fingers proves me wrong and becomes a star, I'll just take that L.
The Fives
Breece Hall (5) was an elite RB prospect. His talent pops off the screen, and I expect him to be a prolific receiving threat in addition to an excellent runner in New York. You can read my full prospect profile of Hall here. He'll win OROY and be an All-Pro in year two.
Evan Neal (5) was my No. 2 overall prospect, but I view him as a safer bet than my No. 1 prospect, Kayvon Thibodeaux, who coincidentally was also drafted by the Giants. Neal will be an All-Pro level RT for the next 10 years. He's large, strong, and moves well. As for Thibodeaux (4), his game is elite, but two EDGEs and four total defensive players going before him does give me pause. I stick to the film – his talent should allow him to consistently be among the league leaders in sacks. However, it would not shock me to see him involved in some controversy.
Devin Lloyd (5) was a curious pick by a usually inept GM (especially after he used a second premium pick on an off-ball LB later), but I just love the player. Lloyd is a ferocious presence, and I think he'll be the heart and soul of Doug Pederson's Jaguars. His ability to displace guards and defeat blocks is uncommon for an off-ball LB in today's game. Heavy-handed with good change-of-direction and burst, Lloyd is incredibly tough to block. Two of his highlights include rag-dolling a Stanford guard and reading the QB's eyes to make a leaping pick-six.
Devonte Wyatt (5) was my 12th-ranked overall player and my top-rated Georgia Bulldog. His quickness is unbelievable and I expect him to dominate on the inside for the Packers starting this season. I would have worried about his character concerns a lot if he had fallen to the third round. At No. 28, the Packers got the next great interior DL.
Wide Receivers
This was a fascinating WR class. I did read some "this WR class is actually overrated" takes, but I don't buy it. We are in the golden age of WR play with how the game is being coached at the High School and College levels. What I've said about this class all along is that all five of the top WRs have a legitimate case to be the WR1. Similarly, all five have a chance to reach All-Pro status based on talent. I won't pick any of them to do that, but it would not shock me one bit to see two of these guys develop into mega-stars. I would hate to sit here and pick all 3s and 4s but I do think 3s and 4s are the likeliest outcome for this group. However, I will start with a curveball.
Jahan Dotson (4) will develop into a star. Not an early declare, late breakout, small size – there are legitimate reasons to hate on this pick. But his film was really good, and his draft capital is obviously encouraging. I did not write a prospect profile on Dotson, but here's the short version. He's highly skilled with amazing hands and legit deep speed. If Washington can figure out the QB position, he'll be a star.
Drake London (3) was an excellent prospect. His highs are really high, but his lows give him bust potential. His college resume is the definition of "targets are earned" and I love his route-running ability for his size. I can't pick a bust even though I wonder how the Falcons will find a QB. You can read my full prospect profile on London here.
Garrett Wilson (4) ended up as my WR1, and the only thing that can hold him back is Zach Wilson not developing. Wilson's game reminds me of Marvin Harrison, and his movement skills are just ridiculous. I also would never bet against a guy with this kind of father, seriously. You can read my full prospect profile of Wilson here.
Chris Olave (3) goes to a very stat-friendly situation in year one. And I don't care about his Senior status because he had already broken out as a Junior and Sophomore. He's smooth and fast and while his upside is the next great dome WR, I'll just pick a solid pro. The one weakness that could be an issue is his lack of physicality. You can read my full prospect profile of Olave here.
There will be busts. That's just how the draft works. Other post-draft articles don't predict them, because people want to read exclusively positive things about their teams' new players. This article has picked busts ever since Greg Robinson, which worked out exactly as predicted. I do believe that Jameson Williams (1) had the best film of any WR prospect in this class. However, I will pick him to bust, in part due to landing spot. Williams was unable to earn targets at Ohio State, has durability concerns, weighs less than 180 pounds with a slender frame, and plays a twitchy style that may be more susceptible to further injuries down the line. I also don't love his fit with Jared Goff and the Lions. You can read my full prospect profile of Williams here.
Christian Watson (1) will also bust. He had pedestrian production at the FCS level and although his traits do pop, he's just so unpolished that its hard to see him as anything more than a role player for Aaron Rodgers early in his career. He takes a while to get in and out of breaks and didn't get that much separation against future pros at the Senior Bowl. Yes, he made contested catches there, but he's going to have to learn how to run routes and beat press. I'll pick him to struggle.
George Pickens (2) went to an organization that knows how to deal with high-maintenance WRs, but I don't think his film is so impressive that we should ignore his glaring red flags. Pickens is talented, but availability is a pre-cursor to NFL success.
Skyy Moore (4) has a potential Cooper Kupp-like career arch within his range of outcomes. Patrick Mahomes will find a new No. 1 WR eventually, and right now the best candidate on the roster is Moore, as JuJu Smith-Schuster struggled as the No. 1 option in Pittsburgh. Moore is small, but has huge hands, which allowed him to Moss WRs and make tough catches at Western Michigan. He has the physical traits to be a do-it-all WR who can play all over the formation for Andy Reid. I think the hype is justified. Moore's movement skills popped differently than his peers at the combine and his film is fantastic.
Khalil Shakir (3) was my favorite late-round WR pick. He goes to a perfect situation to eventually take Jamison Crowder's job as the primary slot WR in Buffalo. He runs excellent routes and flashed in a big way during one-on-ones at the Senior Bowl. His quickness and ability to make tough catches shine on film.
Lastly, I'll finish with a hot take that John Metchie III (4) will be the No. 1 target on the Texans for years to come. Metchie is a pure football player and has terrific quickness despite lacking elite long speed. He can block, catch in traffic, and run routes at a high level. He knows how to get open and his football IQ is outstanding. He's tough, competitive, plays with passion, and literally has an enlarged heart.
85th percentile Threes and Fours
Out of George Karlaftis, Arnold Ebiketie, Boye Mafe, Josh Paschal and David Ojabo, at least one will be a star. They're just too talented. I'll go with Ebiketie (4), who was underrated throughout the entire process. He converts speed to power as well as anyone in this class and gave the Auburn LT fits. Simply put, he doesn't stay blocked long. The Falcons finally found their Pro Bowl EDGE. Hopefully it won't be for a bizarre one-year boom year then fizzle out like Vic Beasley.
Andrew Booth Jr. (4) was the No. 16 overall player on my board. When I first began studying the top CBs, I initially had him ranked as my CB1. The more I watched, the more I saw how elite Stingley and Sauce were, so Booth slipped behind them. He's a fantastic player in his own right and I love how aggressive he plays the run. He has everything you want in a starting CB in terms of competitiveness, length, and movement skills, and I expect him to be the CB1 in Minnesota for a long time.
Luke Goedeke (4) was a better prospect than Bernhard Raimann all along, and I'm glad draft capital confirmed that for me. He'll be a solid guard for the Bucs for a long time. His hand placement is terrific and he can move people in the run game and anchor against pass rushers.
Staying in Tampa, Rachaad White (3) was my favorite of the second-tier RBs and he went to the absolute best landing spot. He has a three-down skillset with terrific receiving skills. If he can improve his functional strength, he can be a huge producer as the 1A for the Bucs. His gliding speed, jump cuts, and spin moves are special.
Dylan Parham (3) was one of my favorite guards in the draft. He moves people and his physicality and competitiveness shine on film. The Raiders will plug him in to start from day one.
Marcus Jones (3) has the talent to be an impact return man for the Patriots. I even predict he'll be a solid nickel corner. Jones had nine career return TDs for Houston and his play speed and spatial awareness pop on film. Here's a bold prediction - Belichick plays him at WR also as the new Troy Brown.
Cameron Thomas (3) was an excellent pick in the third round by Arizona. Thomas' film when he played DT on the interior was fantastic as his play strength was as impressive as anyone in this class. He moves well for his size and had dominant reps on film. He shed blocks better than some of the more highly touted EDGE players.
Travis Jones (3) was a ridiculous steal in the third for the Ravens, who I agree had an unbelievable draft. Jones was unblockable at the Senior Bowl and his play strength projects to be impactful. He'll be an outstanding two-down run stuffer for Baltimore starting next year.
15th percentile Ones and Twos
(I'm sorry but there will be busts)
Yes, Cole Strange (1) was an awful pick. He was absolutely dominated by multiple players at the Senior Bowl and simply lacks the play strength to come anywhere near paying off his first-round draft price. Hear me out. Bill Belichick. But with a GM.
Drake Jackson (1) was severely overrated, topped off by a pre-draft tweet from Adam Schefter, insinuating that he could be a surprise first rounder. Shockingly, his agent is Drew Rosenhaus. He made hustle plays and sacks against TEs and the Arizona State RT had dominating reps against him. He has a thin lower body with limited ankle flexion. I think he tops out as a JAG and never starts.
Nik Bonitto (2) was another overrated pass rusher who struggled against double teams and TEs. He has legit quickness but I think he'll struggle with length and strength in a big way. He made easy things look hard, showed poor hand usage, and is unrefined as a pass rusher. There were better ways for Denver to spend the 64th pick.
I also wasn't huge on Logan Hall (2). He pops up high out of his stance but is all over the place technique-wise. I like his strength but I don't think he's a very good football player right now.
Velus Jones Jr. (2) is an easy target as an older, unpolished WR with a limited production profile. His film wasn't impressive and his analytic profile is underwhelming to say the least.
The Nakobe Dean (2) fall was very interesting, and with reports that he's fully expected to be ready to play right away, perhaps he wasn't the perfect LB prospect some presented him as? I thought Lloyd was clearly better. In fact, I thought Dean was very overrated as a smaller LB who will have to be kept clean to be able to use his best assets – his speed and instincts. I saw him get pancaked by a puller, struggle with the size of the Florida OL, and get jolted back by running backs. I was not impressed with his functional strength. He also had some lowlights in coverage including getting toasted on an angle route and falling down in zone. I think Quay Walker's traits and game translate to the NFL much better. I predict Dean flames out.
While bold, I can't end this article on a bust prediction.
My final prediction this year will pick the next great late-round RB. This player was a late-fifth round pick and had a nightmarish pre-draft process. However, his film is good and athletic testing is just a part of the evaluation process. I also loved his landing spot. Kyren Williams (3) will develop into the starting RB for Sean McVay's Rams and have years of PPR greatness. He will start his career as a pass-catching specialist and eventual take over in an injury-riddled backfield. Draft Williams in dynasty, and keep him on your radar in re-draft.
Follow me on twitter @draft32teams for more NFL, NFL Draft, and fantasy football insight. Thanks for reading.
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