X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

NFL Draft Pick Value Study

Each year after the draft, I write a long draft review in which I predict the careers of players in each team's draft class.  It's a ridiculous exercise, but fun to do and I think entertaining to read.

Over the past 10 years of making these predictions, I've always cautioned readers that I would pick busts and that most other post-draft analysis is unrealistically optimistic.  Simply looking back at any draft over the year will show you that many, many, many players do not live up to their draft selection.

I can't predict every player to be a star.  It's just not realistic.  But how many players should I pick to bust?  Can I pick the entire top 10 to succeed?  In an effort to have some math to back up my predictions, I conducted this study to figure out the value of draft picks based on past drafts.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!

 

Grading the Picks

I’ve gone over every draft from 2007 to 2017 and given every single player a career grade:

5 – All-Pro: Starter who has performed at an elite level at his position.
4 – Above Average: Starter who has been among the best at his position.
3 – Solid: Starter or valuable back-up with significant positive production.
2 – Replacement Level: Below average starter or back-up who made minor contributions.
1 – Bust: Player who didn’t amount to anything positive.

The grades do not take into account what team each player flourished or busted for. For example, Marshawn Lynch was graded a 5 because he became a 5-level player, even though it wasn’t until he switched teams. So we are rating what the player became, not if his initial draft selection was a success for the team that took him. The idea is to understand the landscape of the talent, so team circumstances aren’t represented.

This study is obviously subjective. But a percentage point here and there based on the fact that you view someone as a 3 and I think he’s a 2 isn’t a big deal. The idea is to get in the ballpark. How likely are you to land a 3 or above in the 3rd round? How about the 7th? What’s the rate of complete busts in the top 15? Etc.

I’ve compiled the data and separated the draft into the following areas: Picks 1-5, Picks 6-10, Picks 11-20, Picks 21-32, Picks 33-48, Picks 49-64, 3rd-Round, 4th-Round, 5th-Round, 6th-Round, 7th-Round.

Here are the results:

 

Picks 1-5
All-Pro: 21.8%
Above Average: 20.0%
Solid: 23.6%
Replacement Level: 25.5%
Bust: 9.1%

A top 5 pick is thought of as gold, and you have about a 40% chance to get a terrific player.  But I don't think the average fan realizes that there's a 23.6% chance their top-five player is just solid.  And more than a third of the time, a top 5 pick is a supreme disappointment.

Picks 6-10
All-Pro: 18.2%
Above Average: 12.7%
Solid: 30.9%
Replacement Level: 20.0%
Bust: 18.2%

From picks 6-10 you have about a 30% chance at a 4 or 5 and a 30.9% chance to just get a solid pro.  Meanwhile, 38.2% of these picks turn into a 2 or a 1.

Picks 11-20
All-Pro: 7.3%
Above Average: 16.4%
Solid: 39.1%
Replacement Level: 24.5%
Bust 12.7%

The only major difference between picking 6-10 and 11-20 is that your odds of finding an elite player decrease by more than half.  Finding a 4 or 3 is most likely, while being completely disappointed with a 1 or 2 happens 37.2% of the time.  Picking in the teens is clearly not that much different than picking in the latter half of the top 10.

Picks 21-32
All-Pro: 6.2%
Above Average: 12.3%
Solid: 28.5%
Replacement Level: 23.8%
Bust: 29.2%

The last third of the first round has drop-offs for 5s, 4s, and 3s, and the bust percentage rises significantly.  You won't find many post-draft articles predicting disappointments for a third of all first-round players.  But that's the unfortunate reality.

Picks 33-48
All-Pro: 2.8%
Above Average: 9.1%
Solid: 26.1%
Replacement Level: 27.3%
Bust: 34.7%

The top of the second round sees a drop-off across 5s, 4s, and 3s.  2s and 1s rise, but it's not drastic.  From a talent standpoint, the end of the first isn't much different than the top of the second.

Picks 49-64
All-Pro: 2.8%
Above Average: 5.1%
Solid: 19.9%
Replacement Level: 28.4%
Bust: 43.8%

The major difference between the first half of the second round and the second half of the second round is that busts appear 9.1% more often.

3rd Round
All-Pro: 1.8%
Above Average: 4.3%
Solid: 12.4%
Replacement Level: 28.1%
Bust: 53.4%

I've always considered third-rounders "premium" picks, but this data is startling.  Over 80% of all third-rounders yield a 1 or 2.

4th Round
All-Pro: 0.6%
Above Average: 1.1%
Solid: 7.5%
Replacement Level: 30.3%
Bust: 60.6%

When watching the third day of the draft, take note of who is predicting steals and values.  Only 9.2% of all fourth-rounders will amount to much of anything.

5th Round
All-Pro: 1.0%
Above Average: 1.2%
Solid: 8.4%
Replacement Level: 22.9%
Bust: 66.6%

The fifth round has actually been more fruitful in recent years.  And still more than two-thirds of all fifth-rounders end up busting completely.

6th Round
All-Pro: 0.5%
Above Average: 1.0%
Solid: 3.0%
Replacement Level: 14.7%
Bust: 80.8%

Now we’re entering the part of the draft where Replacement level players represent some value. The truth, however, is that replacement level players can be easily found by signing UDFA, emergency-list guys off the street, or veteran free agents. So this becomes a lottery ticket for a contributor. The only All-Pros drafted in the sixth during 2007-2017 were Antonio Brown and Jason Kelce.

7th Round
All-Pro: 0.0%
Above Average: 0.4%
Solid: 2.7%
Replacement Level: 13.7%
Bust: 83.2%

Finally, the seventh round. Where if you don’t find Harrison Butker or Chris Carson, you’re better off focusing on priority undrafted free agents.

Thanks for reading, and stay tuned for more NFL Draft content.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!




Win More With RotoBaller

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nick Martini7 mins ago

Homers Twice On Opening Day
Trey Lipscomb37 mins ago

To Be Called Up
Nick Senzel45 mins ago

Expected To Miss 3-4 Weeks
Jon Gray49 mins ago

To Start On Sunday
Justin Steele53 mins ago

Likely To Go On Injured List
Anfernee Simons3 hours ago

Out Against The Heat
Max Kepler3 hours ago

X-Rays Come Back Negative On Max Kepler
Keldon Johnson3 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Justin Steele3 hours ago

Has Left-Hamstring Tightness
Matisse Thybulle3 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Davis Bertans3 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Friday
Jusuf Nurkic4 hours ago

Questionable Against Oklahoma City
Frankie Montas4 hours ago

Blanks Nationals In Win
Dario Saric4 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Jose Hernandez4 hours ago

Surprises With Opening Day Save
Noah Clowney4 hours ago

Probable For Nets Friday
Griffin Jax4 hours ago

Closes Out Royals Thursday
Jonathan Kuminga4 hours ago

Questionable For Warriors Friday
Jerami Grant4 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Friday
Clay Holmes4 hours ago

Hangs On For First Save
Dennis Smith4 hours ago

Jr. Probable For Friday
Garrett Crochet4 hours ago

Fans Eight In Tough-Luck Loss
Lauri Markkanen4 hours ago

Questionable Against Houston
Toumani Camara4 hours ago

Will Not Play Friday
Justin Steele4 hours ago

Exits Thursday's Start
Richaun Holmes4 hours ago

Out Versus Pistons
Cameron Johnson4 hours ago

Out Against Chicago On Friday
Luka Doncic4 hours ago

On The Injury Report For Friday
David Bednar4 hours ago

Still Dealing With Lat Injury
Deandre Ayton4 hours ago

Is Questionable For Friday
Rudy Gobert4 hours ago

Might Miss Friday's Game
Tyus Jones5 hours ago

Unavailable For Friday
Zeke Nnaji5 hours ago

Ruled Out Against Minnesota
Jaden Ivey5 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Rhys McKee5 hours ago

Searching For First UFC Win
Anthony Edwards5 hours ago

Uncertain For Friday Night
Chidi Njokuani5 hours ago

Drops Back Down To Welterweight At UFC Atlantic City
Kyle Nelson5 hours ago

An Underdog Again At UFC Atlantic City
Bill Algeo5 hours ago

Eyes Sixth UFC Win
Joaquin Buckley5 hours ago

Gets Ranked Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Vicente Luque5 hours ago

Gets Short-Notice Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Randal Grichuk6 hours ago

Begins Season On Injured List
Eduardo Rodriguez6 hours ago

Could Throw Off Mound In 5-7 Days
Max Kepler6 hours ago

Leaves On Opening Day With Injury
Nick Senzel6 hours ago

Suffers Broken Thumb
Jason Foley6 hours ago

Earns The Save For Tigers
Tarik Skubal7 hours ago

Tosses Six Scoreless Innings On Opening Day
Corbin Burnes7 hours ago

Pitches A Gem On Opening Day
Aaron Ekblad14 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov14 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto14 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin15 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard15 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins15 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist15 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear15 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Mark Hubbard1 day ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson1 day ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen1 day ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers1 day ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers1 day ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers1 day ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers1 day ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
Jayden Daniels1 day ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
Tank Bigsby1 day ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Josh Reynolds1 day ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Doug Ghim2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA2 days ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry2 days ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox2 days ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak2 days ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan2 days ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg2 days ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn2 days ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby2 days ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin2 days ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord2 days ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala2 days ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler2 days ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder2 days ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad3 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson3 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron4 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley4 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala5 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen5 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron5 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA