RADIO
There have been times throughout history where great trios were at the top of their fields. The Three Musketeers, Three Stooges and Three Tenors are just a few examples of some of the excellent trios from the past with each member of that trio bringing something a little different to the table. The same can be said for any good wide receiver corps in the NFL.
For instance, the Packers have an underneath receiver to move the chains (Randall Cobb), a deep threat (Davante Adams) and the red zone/intermediate threat (Jordy Nelson). Teams like the Giants (Beckham, Marshall and Shepard) seem to be trying to duplicate the success of the Packers, while others have their “two studs” and the perceived third man. The Bucs have Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, the Colts have T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief and the Saints have Michael Thomas and Willie Snead.
However, one of these situations is not like the others. He may not be considered a fantasy factor after a disappointing stay in Carolina, but Tedd Ginn Jr. is someone that shouldn't be underestimated based on his current situation.
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Never Underestimate the Third Man
Just as the New World Order needed a third man to “get over” and become one of the hottest factions in the history of professional wrestling, the New Orleans Saints’ offense has thrived when they have three dynamic pass catchers. In 2016, with the aforementioned Thomas and Snea, plus New England bound Brandin Cooks, the Saints led the league in passing yards with 5,074 and were tied for second in passing TD with 38 (only behind the Packers 40). While equating the new Saints third man to “Hollywood” Hulk Hogan would be a disservice to one of the greatest professional wrestlers of all time, Ted Ginn should make the Saints’ passing game dynamic once again.
Coming out of Ohio State, Ginn was selected ninth overall by the Miami Dolphins in the 2007 NFL Draft. Seen as the next top end speed receiver coming into the NFL after running a 4.38 40 at the Ohio State pro day, he floundered for the next half-decade with the Dolphins and 49ers, playing sparingly and starting even less (only three of his 40 games in San Francisco) prior to joining the Carolina Panthers in 2013. After a bounce back year in Carolina, where Ginn totaled 556 yards and 5 TDs on 68 targets, Ginn moved onto the Arizona Cardinals for yet another lost season. He finally returned to the Panthers in 2015, where Ginn compiled his strongest fantasy season to date with 739 yards and 10 TD on 44 receptions. Ginn would follow up his 2015 season with another solid season with the Panthers with 752 receiving yards and four TD on 54 receptions. However, heading into the 2017 season there has never been a better time to be a believer in Ginn.
Reasons to Believe
Saints Offense
The New Orleans Saints are known for their dynamic passing game, targeting multiple pass catchers per game and, to be frank, ignoring game script a boatload of fantasy points. The Saints scored the 2nd most points in the NFL in 2016 with 469, something they are quite accustomed to doing. In fact the Saints have scored at least 400 points or 25 points per game over since 2013. Not only do they score so many points, but the Saints find different types of ways to move the ball throughout the 2016 season. The Saints had 30 explosive plays to their wide receivers last season (explosive play meaning the reception by the WR was over 20 yards or longer) which had them tied for 10th in the NFL in such plays. This will mean that Ginn will get chances to use his speed to get open deeper against defenses, which he did quite well last year with 7 such explosive plays.
Even as Ginn starts the season as the third receiver in New Orleans, he will find himself on the field as much as any player for the Saints. The Saints ran the sixth most plays with three wide receivers on the field with 790 last season and there should be no reason for that to change in 2017 considering the way that head coach Sean Payton uses multiple formations. Ginn should also see as good of target share as any number 3 wide receiver in the NFL. Over the past three seasons, the No. 3 wide receiver on the Saints has seen 15.04% of total targets thrown, which would equate to roughly 100 targets (based on the three-year average of Saints passing attempts). Ginn was very effective in 2015 with just 96 targets, finishing as a top-30 wide receiver. He can easily duplicate his successes from 2015 and one of the main reasons why will be the name behind center.
The Drew Brees Effect
All fantasy football fans love to watch Cam “Superman” Newton his way into the end zone after a 15-yard run, but that doesn’t have the best impact on his wide receivers fantasy outputs. Enter Drew Brees, who is certainly not the athlete Newton is at the age of 38, but does have the distinguishing statistic of throwing over 30 touchdowns in nine straight seasons and throwing for over 300 yards per game in each of his last six seasons. Comparing the two further, Newton only has one 30-plus touchdown season in his career and has not thrown for more than 253.2 yards per game in any single season. Looking deeper, Brees was number two in Football Outsiders’ DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) among all quarterbacks in 2016, while Newton finished 27th just below Matt Barkley. If we go back to Newton’s all world, 2015 season, he finished as the number 11th best quarterback in DYAR, while Brees still finished number six. Brees will go down as one of the greatest passers of the football of all time and that will have a large positive impact on Ginn’s outlook in 2017.
Room for More
Every fantasy football owner believes their players will play the full 16 game fantasy season, but in the end that simply is never the case. Thomas and Snead both missed a game in 2016 and Snead missed another game in 2015 as well. If any combination of those players misses time, Ginn can be a massive beneficiary. The following chart shows all of Ginn’s games over 10 targets in his NFL career.
It’s clear, when Ginn has seen any type of volume (10 or more targets) that he can be a viable option for his offense and for fantasy owners alike.
There are certainly a ton of pass catching options in New Orleans, from gifted receivers like Michael Thomas and Willie Snead to Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram out of the backfield and even Coby Fleener, who has proven himself at one time or another in the NFL. Ted Ginn Jr. will be able to make the most of his opportunities with the Saints heading into the 2017 season delivering standalone value as the team’s third wide receiver, but with the opportunity for more, much more in fact, if any of the other receiving options should be sidelined due to injury. Currently going in the 14th round of drafts according to FantasyFootballCalculator, Ginn is a value that could boost any fantasy football team in 2017 and is a bargain in best-ball leagues due to his big play ability.
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