RADIO
We're in the final week (for most) of the fantasy football season! With championship weeks ahead in most leagues, it's all about setting the best one-week lineup possible. No stashes. No upside flyers. Just winning one week for all the glory.
Last week we saw just how crazy the fantasy football playoffs can be. We got just four of the top ten defenses right; although we did have Houston just outside the top ten, which felt good. There was simply no way to expect the Denver defense to flop so hard against the Rams or San Francisco to finish as the 17th-ranked defense against the Commanders. Nor was there any way to know the Dolphins would let Tua Tagovailoa play with another concussion, which led to three second-half interceptions.
All of this is to say that craziness is bound to happen. When you're deciding which defense to play this week, it's imperative that you analyze your specific matchup and decide whether you need safety or upside. If you think you have the advantage at a number of positions, choose a DST that may not be sexy but is unlike to implode. If you think you're the underdog, you may want to roll the dice on a riskier DST that could do horribly but could also net you double digits. It's all about the specific context of your matchup, so keep that in mind as you read below.
As a reminder, every week I do a YouTube DST video called Pick 3(DST) where I give you three defenses I like during the week and one that I'm fading. We have some fun with it, but I think it gives a lot of the same reasoning I present here, so check it out for some video fun. And my BOD Leaderboard is available on Public Tableau, where you can see my updated BOD rankings, plus a leaderboard for the individual defensive stats I use for the BOD formula, and some of the offensive stats that I think can help us determine which DST to play or not. Also, make sure to always check back with this article over the weekend because I will my updated rankings as the week goes on when we get injury news or troubling weather information, etc.
What is the BOD Ranking Formula?
Last year I introduced my Best Overall Defense (BOD) rankings formula, and I'll be using it again this year. I'll give a quick overview of the formula below, followed by my general strategy for streaming defenses, and then my Week 17 fantasy football defense (DST) rankings. Good luck in Week 17 everyone!
The BOD (Best Overall Defense) formula takes into account my favorite stats for picking the right defenses (both positive and negative) and weighs them in a formula. You can view the RANKINGS AND COMPLETE LEADERBOARD of all the stats I use here. I tweaked the formula as the season went on last year, and I feel like it gives us a pretty good indicator of who has the best defenses for fantasy purposes. If you don't want to click that link, the formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
It's important to clarify that the BOD rankings ARE NOT to be treated as weekly rankings. BOD is meant to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Picking The Right Defenses To Pickup and Start
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below. However, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. In 2021, NFL offenses gained 343.6 yards per game and scored 23.0 points per game. While that's down from the 24.8 scored in 2020 (most likely because of the deep safety defenses), it's still the third-most in the Super Bowl era.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Season Record
81-80 correctly predicting top-10 defenses
I want to track how correctly I pick the top 10 this year, so I'll keep track using FantasyPros total points. If anybody has other suggestions, let me know.
Week 17 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. This is the best way to see just how much I like one team over another. Not all one or two-spot differences are the same.
A zero means "do not start," and then the confidence rises from there. Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
Tier 1 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 17
Tier One this week is reserved for my top two defenses on the year, who both have tremendous matchups and a lot to play for. The Cowboys and Eagles are competing for the top seed in the NFC, so you know they will both be looking to make a statement this weekend.
The Cowboys are the 3rd-ranked defense over the last six weeks, averaging 9.5 points per game, which gives them a leg up over the Eagles this week. That and facing a Titans team that gives up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses on the season, averaging 9.8 points per game, and will start Malik Willis at quarterback again. Also, this game is meaningless for the Titans. If Tennessee beats Jacksonville in Week 18, they win the AFC South, regardless of what happens this week. As a result, it wouldn't surprise me if the Titans rest some starters here on a short week.
The Eagles have been my top-ranked defense by BOD for a while, and they are the 8th-ranked defense over the last six weeks, averaging 8.5 points per game. They're 1st in the NFL in sacks, 2nd in turnover rate, 5th in quarterback pressure rate, and 6th in opponents' scoring rate, so they have been elite all season. Now they'll face a Saints team that gives up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses on the season, averaging 9.8 points per game. The Eagles feel like one of the safest options on the board.
Tier 2 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 17
I mean, the Rams finished as the number one fantasy defense last week, so it's hard not to attack a Broncos team that gives up the second-most fantasy points to opposing defenses on the season, averaging 9.8 points per game. The Chiefs are 4th in the NFL in sacks, 7th in QB pressure rate, and 7th in tackles for a loss, so I expect them to bring the heat on Russell Wilson and Brett Rypien, or whoever the Broncos decide to roll out at quarterback. This is a beaten team that just fired their head coach, and I can't see them showing lots of fight this weekend
The 49ers are the 1st-ranked defense over the last six weeks, averaging 11.7 points per game, which means they will always be in play here. The Raiders have also really struggled of late, falling from the 7th-best offense in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses down to 16th in just a month. Meanwhile, the 49ers rank 1st in the NFL in opponents' scoring rate, 5th in turnover rate, 8th in sacks, and are a very fantasy-friendly defense. It's hard to sit them with a title on the line. WEDNESDAY UPDATE: The Raiders are benching Derek Carr and going with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback, so even though Las Vegas still has some talented offensive players, it's hard to bench the SF defense.
The Jaguars just abused Zach Wilson on Thursday night and will now get another plus matchup against a Texans team that gives up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses on the season, averaging 9.8 points per game. Jacksonville has been an inconsistent defense of late, but the Jaguars are 4th in turnover rate, 6th in pressure rate, and have the 8th-ranked rush defense. At the end of the day, this is really all about the matchup. The Jaguars are trying to lock up a playoff spot, so I expect them to come out hungry against Houston.
The Chargers are the 7th-ranked defense over the last six weeks, averaging 8.7 points per game. Meanwhile, the Rams are tied with the Broncos and give up the second-most fantasy points to opposing defenses on the season, averaging 9.8 points per game. Joey Bosa is also set to return to practice this week after being out since Week 3, but with the Chargers already locking up a playoff spot, I would assume they give Bosa another week or two before throwing him back into a game. Regardless, I think the Chargers are a good option this week, even with Baker Mayfield playing well for the Rams.
Tier 3 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 17
The Ravens are the 5th-ranked defense over the last six weeks, averaging 9.0 points per game; however, Pittsburgh has been much better on offense of late. The Steelers turned the ball over once last week, which is their only turnover when Kenny Pickett has been on the field since Week 8 against the Eagles. As a result, I think the ceiling for this Ravens defense is lower than we might have thought a few weeks ago, but they remain a solid play.
The Colts and Giants both look like playable defenses this week. The Colts seem to be the better bet, even though they are out of the playoff hunt, since they are the 6th-ranked defense over the last six weeks, averaging 8.8 points per game, and their defense showed some fight against the Chargers. They're 6th in the NFL in sacks, 5th in tackles for a loss, and 10th in opponent's scoring rate, and they have the run defense to stymie Saquon Barkley.
However, the Nick Foles experiment at quarterback looked just as bad as the Matt Ryan and Sam Ehlinger one. As a result, the now Colts give up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses on the season, averaging 11.7 points per game. That means the Giants are certainly playable in a game they need to win in order to clinch a playoff birth.
The Patriots are the 2nd-ranked defense over the last six weeks, averaging 11.3 points per game, and will now likely get to face a Miami team with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback since Tua suffered his third concussion of the season in last week's loss. This Dolphins offense has the weapons to put up big numbers against this New England defense, but it's hard to see it happening with Bridgewater. The Patriots remain in the playoff hunt, so I think this game is pretty close in what could be a cold showdown in Massachusetts. SATURDAY UPDATE: We have to ding the Patriots a bit since cornerbacks Jack Jones and Marcus Jones are both out for Sunday, while Jalen Mills got in just one limited practice. Even with Bridgewater under center, you don't want to face Miami with too many injured players in the secondary.
That means Miami is likely also playable against a Patriots offense that is pretty mediocre at best. The Dolphins are the 10th-ranked defense over the last six weeks, averaging 8.2 points per game, so I think they can take advantage of poor playcalling and inconsistent play from Mac Jones.
Tier 4 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 17
A lot of defense in here that I like but who have tough matchups. The Commanders, Bucs, Bills, and Jets are all in my top 10 on the season, but it's tough to trust them given their poor schedule or the fact that Tampa Bay has been a brutal fantasy defense over the last month. The Commanders could be in play since Deshaun Watson has just been flat-out bad for Cleveland but they continue to throw the ball more than they did when Jacoby Brissett was at quarterback.
The Lions didn't deliver for us last week against the Panthers, but they remain on the periphery because they take on a Bears team that gives up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses on the season, averaging 9.8 points per game, and was without three starting offensive linemen last week against the Bills. It's a risky play, but if you need a big swing, Detroit could be an intriguing option.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Tyler Huntley is still under center for Baltimore and JK Dobbins is not playing at 100%. I think this Sunday night game is slow and grinding, so I expect both defenses to remain playable.
You also may be inclined to play the Seahawks, but Mike White is back under center for the Jets, and they've been a much better offense with him. The Seahawks are also the worst fantasy defense in the league over the last six weeks, averaging just 2.4 points per game, which makes it even harder to rely on them with championships on the line.
SATURDAY UPDATE: The Falcons are an intriguing defense in DFS and deep leagues with David Bough starting under center for an Arizona team that is out of the playoffs and playing for nothing.
Tier 5 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 17
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