RADIO
Welcome to Week 2 of what will be my weekly article series for RotoBaller, The Fantasy Matchmaker. In this series, I will be looking at fantasy football matchups as each week of the 2023 NFL season approaches and giving you some players whose matchups we love, to the point it probably bumps them up higher for us than where that week’s positional ranking has them.
The common method for analyzing fantasy football matchups and the strength of the opponent is by fantasy points allowed. How many fantasy points has that opponent been allowing to that position on average? This is something I track weekly but I take it a bit further as only looking at raw fantasy points allowed per game does not tell the whole story. It can leave out the context that is important in forecasting future matchup strength for the fantasy skill positions.
For example, the Panthers look like world-beaters versus fantasy WRs based on points allowed to the position in Week 1. But they played the Falcons, for which WRs saw only five targets (five!!?) on the day.
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The Fantasy Matchmaker: Week 2 Matchups We Love
Once a new season is a few weeks in, we can start using that season’s fantasy points allowed data to predict future matchup strength. But in the first few weeks of the season, that data is not yet available in a large enough sample size. So I developed a preseason fantasy strength of schedule (SOS) scoring system based on the previous season’s data and multiple new-season projection inputs. This allows data-driven forecasting of strength of schedule that can be utilized during the offseason and preseason. You can go back and read my debut article for Rotoballer for a description of that process, available here.
RotoBaller generates an overall Top 375 player rankings (all positions) for Points Per Reception (PPR), half PPR, and Standard (no PPR) each week. As I show matchups for each position, I will break that Top 375 list down further into rankings within each position (e.g., QB1, QB2, QB3, RB1, RB2, RB3, etc.). The idea is to show each relevant skill position player’s matchup and positional rank for that week. Each table will be filtered based on the positional rankings.
I encourage you to check out the RotoBaller Week 2 ranks, available here.
Remember, matchup strength alone should not significantly sway start/sit decisions. You are not starting Ryan Tannehill over Tua Tagovailoa in Week 2 because Tannehill’s matchup is friendlier. But, showing matchup strength and positional rank together can assist with those closer, more “toss-up” decisions, where I would be willing to bump a player up or down a few spots in rank based on matchup.
Week 1 QBs: Postmortem
I am fine with being wrong about things, especially when it comes to fantasy football, where most of us are wrong more often than we are right. So, each new week, I will include a post-mortem of the previous week’s likes and dislikes.
QBs I Loved
Patrick Mahomes: Not a big swing, but I may have misjudged the impact of Travis Kelce’s absence in the Chiefs offense. This is not a start/sit series. Everyone was starting Mahomes. But I especially liked him in a potential shootout at home versus a QB-friendly matchup with the Lions. Mahomes finished with 19.5 fantasy points and was the QB7 on the week. Verdict: I was wrong.
Trevor Lawrence: I loved Lawrence’s matchup with the Colts and his fully healthy (and not suspended) set of offensive weapons. Calvin Ridley picked up where he left off during his WR1 season in 2020, and Travis Etienne looks like an RB1. The Colts kept this game closer than expected, and Lawerence ended up with 17.7 fantasy points and was the QB8 on the week. Verdict: Push.
Lamar Jackson: When last week’s article was published, Mark Andrews had not yet been ruled out. With Lamar’s matchup, a then-health J.K. Dobbins, and rookie WR Zay Flowers who I love, I thought Jackson had the best shot of any QB to finish as the overall QB1. Jackson had an abysmal day, finishing with 6.6 fantasy points, and was the QB27 on the week. Verdict: Whatever is more wrong than being wrong.
Anthony Richardson: I was in the camp all offseason thinking Richardson would be successful (in fantasy football) right out of the gate. With a soft landing facing a beatable Jaguars team, I started him on every team where I have him rostered, even a few teams where I drafted a safer option later. Richardson scored 20.9 fantasy points and was the QB4 on the week. Verdict: Nailed it!
Geno Smith: QB22 (9.1 fantasy points): I was wrong.
Derek Carr: QB15 (14.6 fantasy points): I was wrong.
Russell Wilson: QB12 (15.2 fantasy points): I’ll take it.
Sam Howell: QB12 (15.2 fantasy points): For a QB ranked near the bottom in Week 1? Nailed it.
“Not Great, Bob” QBs
Mac Jones: Ranked as the QB31 with a matchup against my top-ranked QB matchup, I felt confident in advising Jones to be nowhere near your starting lineup. Then, just like we all thought would happen, Jones paced the entire NFL with 54 pass attempts and three TDs in a five-point loss to the Eagles. Mac Jones scored 24.1 fantasy points and was the QB2 on the week. Verdict: Even more wrong than I was with Lamar Jackson.
Kenny Pickett: QB21 (9.7 fantasy points): Correct.
Jimmy Garoppolo: QB14 (15.1 fantasy points): I was wrong.
C.J. Stroud: QB20 (10.7 fantasy points): Correct.
Joshua Dobbs: QB32 (1.0 fantasy points): I am not taking any credit here. This fruit was so low-hanging that it was on the ground.
Week 2: Fantasy Matchups – QBs
The following shows the projected matchup strength for the QB position in Week 2. The table includes the QB, the QB Week 2 positional rank (according to RotoBaller), the opponent, and the opponent’s projected rank versus fantasy QBs. The table is filtered in the same order as the Rotoballer positional rankings.
The additional data points I am including for QBs are the projected point total in the game, the spread, and the implied total points for the QB’s team (all taken from FanDuel.com). Las Vegas has an uncanny knack for being accurate with “Over/Under” point totals and game spreads, which is useful context when projecting offensive production. For instance, a bottom-ranked QB could have a very favorable matchup but that does not mean he will be involved in a high-scoring game. The key things to look for with non-auto-start QBs are favorable matchups with higher implied team point totals.
Week 2: QB Matchups We Love
Moving forward in this series, I plan to showcase players who are not necessarily auto-starts (when possible). For instance, Jalen Hurts is the number one-ranked QB this week also facing a favorable matchup (Vikings). Yes, I think Hurts goes ham this week and helps a lot of teams win the week. But he is not the type of player where my analysis is actionable.
Mac Jones (QB21): I have no shame in pivoting directly to a QB who I faded only a week ago. I have been lower than most on Jones since he was in college but I would be fully willing to eat crow if he turns it around this year. New Offensive Coordinator Bill O’Brien seems to be severing whatever was left of the leash Jones has been on, letting the QB sling it all over the field against the Eagles. Jones is a great streamer or QB2 this week against my 28th-ranked QB matchup in the Dolphins. I think Jones exceeds his QB21 rank and will finish as a Top 15 option in Week 2.
Brock Purdy (QB14): Purdy gets a matchup with the seemingly better-than-expected Rams defense, although I think there were a variety of reasons why the Rams dominated the Seahawks. One game is enough for me to move the Rams near the middle of the pack matchup-wise, but not enough to be afraid of the matchup. Especially with the 49ers being an eight-point road favorite with the third-highest implied team total (30.5 points) of Week 2. I think QB14 is about right so I am not projecting a massive exceedance in that respect. But he, like Jones, is a solid streaming or QB2 option in Superflex leagues.
Jared Goff (QB12): I also don’t think the Seahawks defense is quite as bad as what we saw in Week 1, but it’s also a “not scary” defense for Goff at home. I am wary of my “versus RB” rank for the Seahawks (27th) as the Rams' RB scoring was very TD-dependent. The Seahawks held Cam Akers to under two yards per carry and it could be tough sledding for David Montgomery. Why am I talking about that here? Because one of the Seahawks’ biggest defensive weaknesses is their LBs in coverage. Amon-Ra St. Brown is 100% matchup-proof and will get his no matter what. But this LB coverage weakness could mean a field day for Jahmyr Gibbs out of the backfield or, if Gibbs is still being eased into the NFL, a big day for Sam LaPorta (or maybe both). Regardless, it sets up as a potential shoot-out in the Super Dome, with the Lions as home favorites with the fifth-highest implied total (29.0 points). And I think a lot of that scoring will occur through the air.
Not Great, Bob – QBs to Avoid
The following are some potential QB streamers or QB2s who I am avoiding in Week 2.
Russell Wilson (QB18): I am fading Wilson this week largely due to the matchup with the fifth-toughest QB opponent in the Commanders. That and the fact that the Broncos are a home underdog with an implied total of only 22.8 points, I am leaving Wilson on my bench this week.
Matthew Stafford (QB24): I am not sure how many managers are considering Stafford this week, as his success in Week 1 was largely “real NFL” success and not “fantasy” success. Stafford looked healthy and he looked better than anyone outside of Rams fans expected. But he still does not have Cooper Kupp and the Rams get the third-toughest 49ers in Week 2. The Rams are massive home underdogs (+8 point spread) and have the fourth-lowest implied team total (14.5 points) of the week.
Kenny Pickett (QB27): This is low-hanging fruit, but just in case anyone is thinking of getting cute, the Steelers play my top-ranked QB matchup in the Browns, who just made Joe Burrow look like Zach Wilson.
Week 1 WRs Postmortem
WRs I Loved
Chris Olave: WR10 (19.2 PPR points): Correct. Olave is Him.
Jahan Dotson: WR46 (9.0 PPR points): I was wrong.
Seahawks “Big Three:” No need for statistics. Metcalf got in the end zone, but other than that it was a disastrous week for the Seahawks’ offense. I was wrong.
Zay Flowers: WR18 (16.5 PPR points): Nailed it!
Marvin Mims Jr.: WR91 (2.9 PPR points): I jumped the gun, but I still like Mims Jr. this year.
Skyy Moore: Not Applicable (0.0 PPR points): Yikes.
“Not Great, Bob” WRs
Marquise Brown: WR48 (8.7 PPR points): Nailed it!
Nico Collins: WR24 (14.0 PPR points): I was wrong. Collins had a solid day against a tough opponent.
Van Jefferson: WR63 (6.4 PPR points): Technically this was a good call, but not for the reasons I thought. It turns out the Seahawks look like a great matchup for WRs. Jefferson ended up playing third fiddle to the explosion by rookie Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell, who combined for 238 receiving yards on 23 targets.
Week 2: Fantasy Matchups – WRs
The following WR table shows who I consider to be the fantasy-relevant WRs, team-by-team, with Week 1 positional rank (according to RotoBaller), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy WRs.
Week 2: WR Matchups We Love
Elijah Moore (WR43): Moore did not have a big fantasy breakout in Week 1, but his peripheral statistics are promising. Moore is still the proud owner of a stellar college profile and I think he is already the clear WR2 in Cleveland. Moore earned seven targets and a 24.1% target share with his new team, the same numbers as teammate Amari Cooper. He also turned two carries into 19 rushing yards. The Browns look to be intent on Moore being heavily involved in the offense. Meanwhile, a veteran of the “sleeper WR” streets for a few years now, Donovan Peoples-Jones saw only two targets (6.9% target share). Moore gets the 25th-ranked Steelers in Week 2, and I see him easily exceeding his WR43 rank.
Nico Collins (WR41): Once again I am cherry-picking off of the WRs I was wrong about last week, but adjusting our outlook based on new information is the name of the game. Collins was tied for fourth in Week 1 with 11 targets (26.2% target share) which he turned into 80 receiving yards. I am not ready to call Collins CJ Stroud’s favorite target yet, as veteran Robert Woods checked in with ten targets on the day. But I cannot ignore six catches for 80 yards on 11 targets, from a rookie QB in his first game against a tough Ravens team. In Week 2 the Texans face the Colts at home, the second-easiest WR matchup according to my SOS.
Not Great, Bob – WRs to Avoid
Courtland Sutton (WR31): Sutton’s Week 1 was salvaged with a TD, but he only saw five targets and had a sub-20% target share. It was RB Javonte Williams who led the way for the Broncos with six targets from Russell Wilson (18.5% target share). Sutton’s day outside of the TD was pedestrian at best; four catches for 32 yards. Even if Jerry Jeudy misses another game, I am leaving Sutton on my bench if at all possible as the Broncos face the sixth-ranked Commanders in Week 2.
George Pickens (WR30): With the news of Diontae Johnson set to miss some time with a hamstring injury, I know there will be much temptation to fire up George Pickens as the potential de facto WR1 in Pittsburgh. Pickens’ seven targets in Week 1 playing alongside Johnson for most of the game gives me hope for him this season, but not in Week 2 against the top-ranked Browns. My significant fading of Pickett infects my outlook for the entire Steelers offense.
Week 1 Postmortem
RBs I Loved
Antonio Gibson: RB77 (0.9 PPR points): So very wrong. Gibson is turning into the football that Charlie Brown never gets to kick.
Javonte Williams: RB29 (9.7 PPR points): Push.
J.K. Dobbins: I cannot express how bad I feel for Dobbins. Get well soon J.K.
Kenneth Walker III: RB26 (10.7 PPR points): Push. Walker had a disappointing fantasy day but saw the vast majority of the RB opportunities. This offense will see much better days and Walker looks to be the Seahawks’ workhorse (for now).
Zach Charbonnet: RB75 (1.1 PPR points): I was wrong.
I had a brutal week with RBs I loved. I promise I’ll do better.
"Not Great, Bob” RBs
Najee Harris: RB45 (5.3 PPR points): Nailed it!
D’Andre Swift: RB73 (1.3 PPR points): Nailed it!
Week 2: Fantasy Matchups – RBs
The following RB table shows who I consider to be the fantasy-relevant RBs, team-by-team, with Week 1 positional rank (according to RotoBaller), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy RBs.
Week 2: RB Matchups We Love
Dameon Pierce (RB23): I see a “get-right” game for Pierce in Week 2. The Texans face the Colts at home, the easiest RB matchup in the league right now. This take is not bold as no one is sitting Pierce based on a down game to start the season. But I have been a vocal critic of Pierce all offseason so I want to give him his flowers in the form of a prediction that he will flirt with the Top 12 RBs in Week 2.
Zack Moss (RB34): I’ll admit, this one feels gross. But we all saw the state of the Colts’ running game without Jonathan Taylor. “Starting” RB Deon Jackson rushed for 14 yards on 13 carries (yes, you read that correctly), and rookie Evan Hull is now on Injured Reserve (IR). If Moss plays he should see the lion’s share of the RB workload against the Texans, the fourth-easiest RB matchup.
Rachaad White (RB20): This is another RB who you would think is not going to be benched by fantasy managers, but White seems to be disproportionately paying for sub-par efficiency in 2022. White had one of the better RB-receiving profiles coming out of college in recent memory. Yes, his two targets and 6.3% target share in Week 1 do not support that claim, but I have no question that he is a good receiving back. I also like rookie Sean Tucker, who may work his way into a bigger cut of the Buccaneers’ RB touches, but White saw close to a 70% opportunity share against the Vikings and gets the third-easiest RB matchup (Bears) this week. I predict a bounce-back game for White in a game that should be close.
Not Great Bob, RBs to Avoid
Alexander Mattison (RB16): This is one of the RotoBaller ranks I disagree with the most. Mattison’s fantasy day in Week 1 was propped up by a late receiving TD. We cannot just remove TDs from a player’s fantasy outing to make our point, but receiving TDs are not a high-probability regular outcome for Mattison. Outside of that TD, he looked like the “meh” career backup RB that he is, rushing for 34 yards on 11 carries. This is not a situation (yet) where I am worried about Ty Chandler taking over in Minnesota. I am more worried that Mattison keeps the role, and gives you disappointment more often than not. And a road matchup with the seventh-toughest Eagles has me surprised at the RB16 rank.
Dalvin Cook (RB31): Cook was the lead back for the Jets in Week 1. Breece Hall wowed everyone with two long runs out of the gate, but Cook had more carries and a higher snap share, target share, and opportunity share. I love seeing Hall racing down an NFL field again, but the notion that Hall will dominate RB touches in these first few weeks is wishful thinking. The issue is Cook turned 13 carries into only 33 yards (2.5 yards per carry). Managers drafted Dalvin Cook to start him during this first part of the season while Hall gets back up to speed. There was no other reason to take him where he was going in drafts. Now, no one could have predicted the season-ending injury to Aaron Rodgers when deciding to select Cook. Without Rodgers, Cook’s ADP would have been lower. But you are going to want to leave him on your bench in this Week 2 road matchup with the top-ranked RB matchup in the Cowboys.
Week 1 Postmortem
TEs I Loved
Juwan Johnson: TE19 (6.6 PPR points): I was wrong.
Tyler Higbee: TE14 (7.9 PPR points). Based on how atrocious the TE position was in Week 1, I’m calling this a push.
Jake Ferguson: TE38 (3.1 PPR points): I was wrong, but Ferguson’s seven targets are promising.
“Not Great, Bob” TEs
Dalton Schultz: TE42 (2.4 PPR points): Nailed it!
David Njoku: TE28 (4.4 PPR points): Nailed it!
Chigoziem Okonkwo: Not Applicable (0.0 PPR points on only three targets): Nailed it!
Week 2: Fantasy Matchups – TEs
The following TE table shows who I consider to be the fantasy-relevant TEs, team-by-team, with Week 2 positional rank (according to RotoBaller), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy TEs.
Week 2: TE Matchups We Love
Luke Musgrave (TE16): Musgrave and his fellow “Big Three” TEs (Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta) all saw snap shares above 70% in Week 1. I will be looking into whether anything close to that has happened before. None of the three had huge fantasy days, but that type of involvement and the targets they earned while on the field confirm that each is the clear TE1 for their respective team. Even if Christian Watson is back in Week 2, I am starting Musgrave wherever I have him as he faces the easiest TE matchup in Atlanta this week.
Hunter Henry (TE10): Henry is ranked as a starter, and he should be. The TE landscape in Week 1 was TD or bust, as most of the TEs who did not score didn’t do much damage with yards or receptions. Henry caught five of six targets for 56 yards and a TD, which did not equate to a high target share, but that was partly due to Mac Jones throwing 54 passes. Six targets and TD upside is something you will take in the 2023 TE landscape, especially with Henry facing the second-easiest TE matchup (Dolphins) in Week 2.
Not Great Bob, TEs to Avoid
Kyle Pitts (TE9): As much as this pains me, if at all possible I am sitting Pitts until I see something change in Atlanta. Arthur Smith seems proud of the fact that he can win games without using two of the Falcons’ most expensive offensive weapons of the last decade. And good for him. Why change anything when your ceiling as a team is maybe winning one of the weakest divisions in the NFL (sarcasm)? And Pitts faces the Packers in Week 2, a Top 10 toughest TE matchup. I would start Hunter Henry over Pitts this week.
Hayden Hurst (TE22): Hurst is not ranked as a starting fantasy TE, but he was one of the only TEs to score a TD in Week 1. That can be enough for people to chase points at the TE position. I love Hurst and his outspoken support for mental health awareness, but facing the second-toughest TE matchup (Saints) will keep him on my bench where I have him.
Week 2: Fantasy Matchups – DSTs
The following DST table shows each DST and their opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy DSTs. I have included Week 3 with the DST data as the DST streaming game needs to look ahead.
If the Browns DST is somehow still available they are a great option for the next two weeks against the 28th-ranked Steelers and 27th-ranked Titans. The Broncos are a good one-week streaming option at home against the 25th-ranked Commanders. The Giants win the “who is playing the Cardinals” sweepstakes for Week 2, and if you are stuck, the Texans' pass defense is better than you think and could get some turnovers at home against the 30th-ranked Colts.
For more insight into Week 2 DST streaming, check out the Week 2 DST Streamers article by LaQuan Jones (@RealDealFantasy on Twitter).
Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on Twitter (@MunderDifflinFF).
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