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Bruce Matson highlights four rookie running backs to watch in 2020 fantasy football leagues. These RB could be draft sleepers and breakouts.
We just experienced one of the deepest running back classes in the history of the NFL Draft. The draft was loaded with talent from top to bottom. Since there was more talent leaking to the later rounds of the draft, we are surely going to see some unexpected players break out.
The running back position has one of the highest injury fragility rates in the NFL. With the likelihood that we see some of the top running backs get hurt, there’s a good chance we will need to lean on some of these young running back prospects to get us through the season.
By knowing which prospects are in the most promising situations for success will allow us to narrow down our options and select the right running back for your team.
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Darrynton Evans, Tennessee Titans
During his last two seasons at Appalachian State, Evans rushed for 2,667 yards and 25 touchdowns. He finished his junior season owning a 27.74 percent market share of his team’s offensive production. We also saw his receiving production increase to 21 receptions for 198 yards and five touchdowns which provides the notion that he’s at least a functional receiver out of the backfield.
Evans is already pegged as the RB2 on the Titans roster. Without even playing a preseason snap, the odds are highly in his favor that he will Derrick Henry’s backup. If something were to happen to Henry whether it be an injury, illness, or anything else, we will see a massive increase in Evans’ workload.
The Titans finished the 2019 season ranked third in the league, averaging 33.3 rushing attempts per game during their last three games of the regular season. This team wants to run the football and even if they scale back the volume for Evans, the overall workload could be enough to elevate him to backend RB1 territory.
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He has more potential than what most people realize. Evans is a highly athletic running back prospect. At the combine, he posted an 86th percentile size-adjusted speed-score and an 82nd percentile burst score. This means he has the long speed and acceleration to get through the second level of the defense and potentially blow past the linebackers and defensive backs for a long gain or touchdown.
Evans profiles more as a change-of-pace back, but if Henry misses time, then Evans would be thrust into a bell-cow situation. This isn’t outside the realm of possibility considering the amount of carries Henry saw last year at 303.
According to his 190.82 ADP, he’s falling to around the 15th round in fantasy drafts. In some leagues, he’s going undrafted and others he’s being scooped up as a late-round flier. Nonetheless, he’s technically free in drafts right now. Evans could be the free square that turns a team around down the stretch. He’s also a great zero-RB target.
Anthony McFarland Jr., Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers drafted McFarland in the fourth round of this year’s draft. He provides some much-needed depth to the running back depth chart. During his two seasons at Maryland, he rushed for 1,648 yards and 12 touchdowns while averaging 6.7 yards per carry.
The team’s incumbent starter, James Conner, is expected to be the alpha out of the backfield. However, he has yet to play a full 16-game season during his three-year NFL career. Multiple injuries slowed him down in 2019. If the injury bug rears its ugly head, then there will be a lot of ambiguity in the offense. The Steelers would likely run a committee between Jaylen Samuels, Benny Snell, and McFarland.
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McFarland’s long speed sets him apart from the rest of the running backs on the roster. His ability to score from anywhere on the football field will add value to the offensive game plan. It could also be the deal breaker that allows him to see the majority of the touches out of the backfield if Conner were to miss time this season. Although his path to glory isn’t clear-cut, McFarland could be a major riser if he maximizes his opportunities.
With a 184.01 ADP, McFarland is projected to be a late-round selection in most fantasy leagues. There’s also a good chance he’s left on the waiver wire in drafts. More than likely he will be a trendy waiver wire add if he were to see a sizeable workload. He’s a name to remember because he’s just a freak injury away from being the team’s lead running back.
Joshua Kelley, Los Angeles Chargers
Joshua Kelley seems to be the forgotten man from this year’s running back class, but he has a very realistic path to being productive as a rookie. Melvin Gordon is no longer apart of the franchise and Austin Ekeler is expected to be the lead back. If something happens to him the team is going to lean on Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley to carry the load. Jackson’s career has been very anticlimactic at best, rushing for 406 yards in his last two seasons.
What sets Kelley apart from the rest of the running backs on the roster is his size. He is listed at 5-foot-11 and 212 pounds which is at least ten pounds more than both Ekeler and Jackson’s listed weights. On top of that, he has a 78th percentile speed score. He proved he can handle the load in 2018 when he rushed for 1,243 yards and 12 touchdowns. That year he was a 9.2 percent share of the team’s passing targets, proving that he's also a receiving threat out of the backfield.
Although he might not be the most gifted back in the league. He does have enough athleticism to hold down the fort for a few weeks if given the opportunity. His added size will make him a more optimal choice for short-yardage and goal-line carries. Kelley executes a good approach to the line of scrimmage which is followed with excellent field vision and patience before hitting the hole. He has the skill set to pay big dividends if given a large workload during the season.
Eno Benjamin, Arizona Cardinals
Going into the 2019 season, Benjamin was considered one of the top running backs in college football. In many cases, he was a first-round pick in devy drafts. He rushed for 1,642 yards and 16 touchdowns while catching 35 passes for 263 and two touchdowns during his sophomore season in 2018. That year he owned a 35.17 percent market share of the offensive production which was the fourth highest in all of college football behind Nico Evans, Wesley Fields, and Jonathan Taylor.
Kenyan Drake is slated as the team’s starting running back. He finished strong last year, scoring in the top-25 at his position in six of his last eight games with back to back top RB5 finishes in weeks 15 and 16. However, he doesn’t have much experience of playing a full workload through an entire season. This goes for both the NFL and the collegiate level where he was used sparingly at Alabama. If he can’t hold up during the season, then we will see Chase Edmonds and Benjamin take the touches.
The Cardinals have one of the most explosive offenses in the league. They ranked fourth in the league with 28.35 seconds between plays in a neutral game script. The offense wants to be fast-paced and run a lot of play which equates to more touches and fantasy points for everyone in the offense. Whoever is lining up at running back will benefit from playing in this offense.
Benjamin is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. His skill set matches up well with the team’s offensive philosophy. He can also run the ball between the tackles. Arizona allocated 19.7 percent of their passing targets to the running backs last year. Benjamin would benefit from the added volume in Arizona’s passing game. He can eat chunks of yards in the open field due to his nimble footwork and his tenacious mindset when running the football.
Obviously, his 5-foot-9 and 207-pound frame don’t lend the notion that he can handle a full workload for a long period of time, but he’s good enough to take over as the team’s lead back for a short stint if something happens to Drake. Benjamin has the potential to be the true diamond in the rough of the 2020 season and all fantasy owners will need to have their fingers on the trigger just in case he gets the chance to be the lead dog in Arizona’s backfield.
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