Overvalued Fantasy Football WRs To Underperform Their ADPs - Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, more

August 26, 2024

Which fantasy football wide receivers will fall short of their ADP in 2024? Quincy Milton looks at three WRs who won't live up to their preseason ADP this season.

Fantasy football was once a running back-driven game. While running backs are still a hot commodity in fantasy, the number of elite wide receivers in today's NFL has made the position that much more important for fantasy managers.

The wide receiver position is becoming almost as important as quarterback in the NFL. With so many talented wide receivers in the league these days, the position is about as deep as it has ever been for fantasy football players.

Given the depth at the position, there is no need to reach for players who might not provide you with the value you are looking for. Let's take a look at the wide receivers who are poised to fall short of their ADP in 2024.

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

ADP: WR8

Garrett Wilson is a scary pick in 2024. In two NFL seasons, Wilson has finished as the WR21 and WR26 respectively. He has done so with poor quarterback play from whoever the Jets decided to roll out in a given week. Wilson's talent is undeniable. You can watch him and just tell that he is an alpha on the field. However, you are going to be relying on Wilson to produce numbers that we have not seen him produce with a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers at quarterback coming off a torn Achilles.

Watching Aaron Rodgers throw the football is so relaxing. It’s so effortless.

I know Garrett Wilson was suprised how accurate that throw was based on passes he’s seen from Zach Wilson and others.pic.twitter.com/nRU83sg1JP

— PatsSZN (@NewEraPatriots_) July 25, 2024

The last time we saw Aaron Rodgers play a full season it was not pretty. In 2022 he threw for 3,695 yards and 26 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. His QBR of 41.3 was good for 26th in the league. Rodgers has never been insane in the yardage department, but his efficiency in throwing touchdowns and a low touchdown to interception ratio have made him the quarterback that he is. If he repeats those 2022 numbers then this is not going to be a season to remember from Wilson.

If Rodgers comes back strong in 2024, then Wilson's positional value may actually be solid. However, if you want Wilson on your team, then you are going to have to spend a fringe first-round pick on him. That means passing on other elite players such as running backs Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, and Jahmyr Gibbs. Drafting projected breakouts is part of the game in fantasy. Doing so with your first couple of picks is an incredibly risky game.

Wilson was drafted around this same position last season as fantasy players were hopeful of the season Rodgers might have. Everyone was severely disappointed. With so much other talent around Wilson's draft position, it may be best to not take the risk of history repeating itself.

Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders

ADP: WR11

The old fantasy stalwart Davante Adams showed nothing on tape in 2023 that indicated he was done. However, the Raiders' mess on offense and lack of a quality starting quarterback are cause for concern for Adams.

The last time Adams was not a top-10 fantasy wide receiver was in 2019 when he only played in 12 games. The guy is a certified stud, but his performance in 2023 was anything but. Adams finished 2023 with 1,144 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. That is a breakout for most players. However, Adams recorded fewer than 1,367 receiving yards or 11 touchdowns for the first time since 2019.

While Adams finished as the WR10 in 2023, he only finished as a top-10 wide receiver in four games. Adams finished as WR45 or worse on five occasions. The rest of his season fell somewhere in the middle, but that is not the consistency, nor is it the floor that you want from your presumptive WR1 on your fantasy team.

Adams caught passes from a combination of Jimmy Garoppolo and rookie Aidan O'Connell in 2023. In 2024 it will either be O'Connell or Gardner Minshew II. Minshew may be able to hyper-target Adams to an okay season, but O'Connell remains a mystery.

The Raiders began the year 3-5 under former head coach Josh McDaniels. They finished the year 5-4 behind the play of excellent defense and hard-nosed running under interim head coach Antonio Pierce. Pierce has since been promoted to full-time head coach and it would stand to reason that the Raiders will run their strategy back. If the Raiders' defense is as good as it was down the stretch of 2023, then they may not need to be a pass-heavy offense to keep up in games.

This is all to say that Adams should still be a fantasy contributor in 2024. However, I would be very uncomfortable drafting him to be my WR1. The inconsistency that plagued Adams in 2023 likely will not go away. His weekly floor will also likely be far lower than fantasy managers would like.

“It was a lot harder than what I even imagined. ... Anytime you go from having the best QB ever throwing you the ball to any type of change, it's going to be an adjustment. It wasn't easy, but we're still managing.” - Davante Adams pic.twitter.com/UCjPZHPgM6

— Club Shay Shay (@ClubShayShay) July 29, 2024

DJ Moore, Chicago Bears

ADP: WR15

DJ Moore has been subjected to poor quarterback play for most of his career. The Bears drafted quarterback Caleb Williams in 2024 and have surrounded him with a myriad of weapons so that he can succeed as quickly as possible. No QB in recent memory has stepped into a better situation in their first year. However, Williams is still a rookie and will likely need time to adjust to the NFL.

In 2023, Moore found himself in a breakout situation with former quarterback Justin Fields slinging the rock. Moore finished as the WR6, but he only finished as a top-10 wide receiver in six games.

A WR10-15 finish may actually be in the cards for Moore, but the ride will probably not be a fun one. Williams would need to have a historic rookie season in order to support consistent high-end WR2 production, let alone WR1 production from Moore.

It is very difficult to project rookie quarterback success in the NFL. The recent success of C.J. Stroud and Justin Herbert has increased the expectations for Williams. However, rookies throwing for more than 4,000 yards and more than 20 touchdowns is generally unheard of. Then again, rookies usually do not have this good of a cast around them.

The last factor working against Moore is the presence of wide receiver Keenan Allen. Allen operates in the short and middle portions of the field while Moore is more of a deep threat. Allen may garner more targets than Moore while Williams adjusts to the NFL. Williams may start to cut it loose as the year goes on, but Allen may be a better bet for fantasy in 2024.

Moore is a highly talented player, and he should have boom games in 2024 just as he did in 2023. His athleticism and explosiveness mean that he will win you a week here and there. However, the consistency could be similar to 2023 and his weekly floor projects to be relatively low with the plethora of other weapons available to a rookie quarterback. WR15 is not the biggest risk, but with players such as Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf, and DeVonta Smith going much later, it may be better to take your shot on them as your WR2.

DJ Moore was not only a great trade for what he does on the field, but how he treats his teammates.

Great leader 😎 pic.twitter.com/9Hn7cyel7d

— Just Another Year Chicago: Bears (@OfficialJAYCHI) July 29, 2024

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