Team Risers and Fallers Ahead of the 2025 NFL Draft

April 10, 2025

John's outlooks on team risers and fallers from trades and free agency ahead of the 2025 NFL Draft. His picks for teams who won and lost free agency.

The biggest portion of NFL free-agency is now over. Most players who will find new landing spots have already done so, and while there remains a variety of big-name free agents left, like Amari Cooper, their signings will be less impactful than those that have already happened.

After the dust cleared from the signing frenzies, quite a few clear winners and losers emerged. Many NFL teams addressed some of their biggest needs with signings, while others haphazardly tried to fill in some positions of need while ignoring others that were extremely important.

Thanks to some teams having excellent management, with general managers and their supporting staff doing a great job evaluating the teams' weaknesses and how to address them, and some management teams seemingly having no idea what they're doing and just grabbing some players that they think are good, we have obvious winners and losers this season, so let's break them all down.

NFL Team Risers Pre-2025 NFL Draft

Washington Commanders 

They massively exceeded their expectations heading into 2024 by making the NFC Championship game. They nailed their pick of quarterback Jayden Daniels, and he was a revelation in his first season. However, the team wasn't without some glaring issues, among the biggest of which, on offense at least, were the offensive line and pass-catcher positions.

Daniels elevated his guys, but the only reliable wideout was Terry McLaurin. Teams have learned by now that you need a very good WR1 and an excellent WR2 to put your offense in the best position to succeed if you don't have an elite tight end to fill in one of those positions.

2024 Eagles: DeVonta, AJ Brown
2023 Chiefs: Travis Kelce, Rashee
2022 Chiefs: Kelce
2021 Rams: Cooper Kupp
2020 Bucs: Mike Evans
2019 Chiefs: Tyreek Hill, Kelce
2018 Patriots: Rob Gronkowski
It's really, really hard to win a Super Bowl these days without elite WR/TE talent

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 19, 2025

Washington made the right move in bolstering their pass-catching group by trading for San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. Though he had a disappointing 2024 season, statistics indicate he had a significant fall-off after his bout with pneumonia, and his early-year production was much better, so that should be more in line with what we should expect. They also didn't have to pay much for him- they have plenty of cap space to absorb his contract and only had to give up a fifth-rounder.

The second-biggest area of concern on offense was the offensive line, and they traded for former Houston Texans left tackle Laremy Tunsil, one of the best pass-protectors in the league, to protect Daniels' blind side. They also absorbed an expensive contract, but they have the leeway to do so since No. 5 is still on his rookie contract.

#Commanders projected starting O-line

LT - Laremy Tunsil (6’5, 315 lbs)
LG - Nick Allegretti (6’4, 320 lbs)
C - Tyler Biadasz (6’4, 318 lbs)
*RG - Andrew Wylie (6’6, 309 lbs)
RT - Brandon Coleman (6’6, 320 lbs)

— brandon (@JayDanielsMVP) March 19, 2025

This also allows them to slide their previous LT, Brandon Coleman, to the right side of the line, which should help, as he'll be an upgrade over Andrew Wylie there, and he can fill in at right guard while Washington's standout guard, Sam Cosmi, recovers from injury.

Defensive end Clelin Ferell, center Nate Herbig, right tackle Trenton Scott, defensive end Jake Martin, guard Michael Deiter, defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, and others comprised a slew of signings to the defensive and offensive lines as well. The Commanders are doing the right thing here. Once you get your franchise quarterback and still have him on his rookie deal, you get a good set of receivers and build the trenches as much as possible. The Commanders will now have more depth at all levels (starter, second, and third-string) of these position groups.

Chicago Bears

The Bears had a great offseason. For real this time. And it was pretty simple. They let go WR Keenan Allen, who's now 32 years old and will soon turn 33. He wasn't a great addition to their roster, though he did have some nice garbage-time stats. They immediately massively bolstered the offensive line. New Chicago head coach Ben Johnson has his priorities in the right place.

New look Bears offensive line heading into 2025 😳 pic.twitter.com/bp80BnBn77

— Marquee Bears (@BearsMarquee) March 10, 2025

Quarterback Caleb Williams should be smiling from ear to ear. He was the most-sacked QB in the league in 2024 and had serious trouble dealing with pressure. Now, there should be a lot less of it. Johnson's blocking schemes and play-calling will all center around keeping Williams as comfortable as possible. The much-improved offensive line will enable him to do that.

Chicago is in much better shape now than they were last season.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are retaining their quarterback, Matthew Stafford, and their head coach, Sean McVay. The Super Bowl-winning duo have been the engines behind one of the best offenses in the NFL (when their players are healthy), and they just shed one of their aging veteran receivers for a much better, more durable, and more impactful wideout in Davante Adams.

Davante Adams is tied for the 11th-best Open Score and yards per route run for a wide receiver over the past 3 seasons, via ESPN Analytics. His Open Score has been top 15 in the NFL each year:

Link for the complete dataset + context for stats: https://t.co/XcNijaEkdE pic.twitter.com/lbMy5MExi5

— Wyatt Miller (@wymill07) March 13, 2025

Wide receiver Puka Nacua, one of the best in the league, will combine forces with Adams for the best pass-catching group Stafford has ever had in 2025. That could have propelled them past the Philadelphia Eagles in the divisional round and potentially earned them a Super Bowl berth.

Los Angeles has one of the best scouting departments in the league. They landed Nacua in 2023. Then, they selected linebacker Jared Verse and defensive end Braden Fiske in 2024. So, they didn't need to make a lot of moves to be clear winners here, and the draft should provide them with even more great playmakers. They're feeling just fine.

NFL Team Fallers Pre-2025 NFL Draft

Seattle Seahawks

It should be no surprise to anyone who knows Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider that his team was a loser of free agency and trades ahead of the draft. Considering his recent history, he'll also make his team a loser in the 2025 NFL Draft. That's for another day, though. For now, the Seahawks lost two key pieces and replaced them with clear downgrades.

So essentially the Seahawks:

Lost:
- Geno Smith (40-45m AAV?)
- DK Metcalf (33m AAV)
- Tyler Lockett (TBD)
- 6th rounder (185)

Gained:
- Sam Darnold (33.5 AAV)
- Cooper Kupp (15m AAV)
- MVS (5.5m)
- 2nd rounder (53)
- 3rd rounder (92)
- 7th rounder (223) pic.twitter.com/XrPZbUCasw

— JD McDarnold (I’m lovin it) (@SeahawksBurner) March 14, 2025

Don't worry, guys. Wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling will make up for the loss of wide receiver DK Metcalf. Or maybe it will be their second-round pick. Or maybe Cooper Kupp, who's 32 years old and has shown three straight years of serious decline and is barely being paid WR3 money, will fix it. Things will be fine, right?

Also, quarterback Sam Darnold is totally better than Geno Smith, right? Let's ignore that the Seahawks' offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL and also the lowest-paid in the league because Schneider never wants to pay one of the most important position groups in the NFL. He is the sole reason that group has been among the worst in the league ever since... well, ever since he joined them.

I was just looking on sportrac and the Seahawks have the cheapest offensive line in the league by a wide margin. At least John Schneider is getting what he paid for pic.twitter.com/aBPmcWKfH8

— Parker (@ParkerLewes) December 16, 2024

Darnold folded like a wet paper bag against serious pressure in the final week of the regular season and in the team's only playoff game, a blowout loss to the Los Angeles Rams. He'll go from having one of the league's better offensive lines with the Vikings to one of the worst with the Seahawks.

Pass protection composite ratings.

Congrats to Bo Nix. Better luck next time Drake Maye. pic.twitter.com/xydOOHGFXI

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) January 7, 2025

The team also replaced one of the best WRs in the league, Metcalf, with one of its worst, Kupp. There won't be a massive target to take attention away from the team's WR1, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Darnold probably won't have time in the pocket to be comfortable.

Terrible.

Houston Texans

Losing Tunsil was egregiously terrible. It's understandable because they drafted many good players and must make room for their upcoming contracts. Defensive end Will Anderson Jr. will get a market resetting contract, as will quarterback C.J. Stroud at some point, though he's probably a bit less deserving of one. The team doesn't have much of a choice there.

Patrick Mahomes' pressure rate in the Super Bowl: 38.1%

CJ Stroud's AVERAGE pressure rate this season: 39.4%

Mahomes faced what was essentially a routine day for Stroud this season and looked like one of the worst QBs in NFL history. pic.twitter.com/1T1p3ZeauT

— WOLF Sports (@WOLF_Sportz) March 2, 2025

Stroud was pressured way, way too often in 2024. The team just got rid of their star left tackle and guard, Kenyon Green, a former first-round pick. It's not clear what their plan is, but rebuilding their OL will take some serious heroics in the draft, and Houston's offensive coordinator has his work cut out for him trying to build an offense around this glaring weakness.

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