NFL Betting Picks for Week 11 - Best Bets, Expert Odds and Predictions

November 18, 2022

Steve Janik's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 11 of the 2022 NFL season. His free picks target the first half spread.

We're back after a week off as I was in Vegas for a bachelor party. Big thanks to John Brubaker for covering the article for me in Week 10 and also delivering a 2-1 article! I didn't place one sports bet in Vegas, and I'm not going to lie, it felt good having a week off of the grind and just enjoying the sport for what it brings: entertainment. Now I try to build off of back-to-back 2-1 weeks where I slightly entered positive unit territory and try to stay there as we're now in the second half of the NFL season.

I have always and will always put the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional.** I do this for fun, use my free time to research my favorite plays, and give a little of my insight into why I'm doing a particular play. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me.

• 2022 Record: 13-12, +0.28 units
• Spread: 5-3, +1.5 units
• Total/Team Total: 5-8, -3.76 units
• Moneyline: 2-1, +1.24 units
• Props: 0-0
• Parlays/Teasers: 1-0, +1.3 units

Be sure to follow me on the Twitter machine @stevejanik6 and on Action Network, where I'll have all of my bets this season. It's not only a goal to have a better season, but I'm looking for more engagement on Twitter this season, so feel free to hit me up! Now down to the nitty-gritty – please remember this is all for entertainment. With that, I hope you enjoy it, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!

Week 11 NFL Betting Picks - First-Half Spread

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday 11/20, 1:00pm PM EST | O/U: 45

The Eagles suffered their first loss on Monday night, in a stunner against the Washington Commanders. It was an uncharacteristic game for the Eagles, turning the ball over four times. This offense still averages over 5.8 yards per play, 23 first downs a game, with 27 points per game. Defensively, they boast one of the best pass defenses, but arguably the worst run defense, in terms of DVOA. They'll have a tough run game to stop in this one, their ideal gameplan is to get ahead and stay ahead, thus leaving Indy's run game out of it.

Indianapolis had an odd shift in situation when they hired an interim head coach with no coaching experience. It all worked out to the tune of a 25-20 road win in Vegas. With Matt Ryan back under center, they established the run to the tune of a season-high 207 yards. Jeff Saturday let Matt Ryan be a game manager and it worked against a horrendous defense. Their own defense has actually performed well, allowing just 4.9 ypp and 20.3 ppg. Although, they'll have their hands full this week.

Indianapolis is riding so high off of a win against a terribly coached team with underperforming players. In situations like this, I don't love the full-game number, especially when the favorite is the visitor. Weird stuff happens late in games. I'm rolling with Philly to come out pissed off and shove it down the Colts' throat in the first half.

Pick: Philadelphia First Half -3.5 (-115, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit

Week 11 NFL Betting Picks - Total

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3)

Sunday 11/20, 1:00 PM EST | O/U: 38.5

The Jets are the surprise in the AFC East at 6-3 and fresh off a bye week following an upset 20-17 win over Buffalo. This offense has raised some eyebrows with plenty of young offensive talent. They average 5.3 ypp but just 18 first downs per game. Garrett Wilson has been dynamite for Zach Wilson and Michael Carter is finally coming into his own on the ground. Defensively, the Jets have also surprised, boasting a top-10 defense by DVOA and allowing just 4.8 ypp, the fourth lowest in the NFL.

The Pats hit their bye week at the perfect time, following back-to-back wins against the Jets and Colts. Somehow in those contests, they didn't eclipse 300 yards of offense. Mac Jones is healthy, but it hasn't mattered much. When the offense is rolling, they tend to favor Rhamondre Stevenson, who averages 4.8 ypc and 6.5 yards per reception, but Jakobi Meyers has also been steady in the passing game. Defensively, the Pats sit at 3rd in DVOA with a No. 2 passing defense.

While I love both of these defenses, I'm pivoting from the line movement. The game opened at 39.5 and now sits at 38/38.5 depending on your book. Both teams are fresh off a bye and looking to make a point that they're in the running for an AFC East crown. I think Zach Wilson can somehow limit mistakes against this NE defense, but the key will be the Patriots' offense continuing to run the ball strong to set up the pass for Mac Jones.

Pick: Over 38.5 (-105, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit

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Week 11 NFL Betting Picks - Total

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5)

Sunday 11/20 | 4:05 PM EST | O/U: 41

The Raiders are a disaster right now — losers of three straight which includes a scoreless effort in Week 8. Derek Carr and company have shown frustration but it hasn't amounted to much on the field. Carr and his friend Davante Adams can't seem to work with any consistency. Josh Jacobs has had some boom games but also many bust games. The talent is here, but it just doesn't come together.

Yet another disasterpiece is the Denver Broncos. They haven't scored more than 23 points once all season and have 20 or more just twice. Russell Wilson is washed, their only running back is out for the year, and their receiving corps is solid but with Wilson struggling it's tough for them to shine. There's just not much to be excited about here as the team is poorly coached.

Carr isn't someone to trust so I don't take this lightly but I'm rolling with the Raiders' moneyline. The veteran has some of his best splits against Denver, with a 10-6 record and 17/7  TD/Int. I look for Vegas to put together a solid offensive outing, hoping their defense can stop Denver's poor offense.

Pick: Raiders ML (+126, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit

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