RADIO
What's up, RotoBallers? It's John Brubaker aka "LucidMediaDFS" filling in for Steve Janik for this week's NFL picks. I've personally had a solid season thus far, though I had a rough week last week, going 1-3 on my straight bets. I did cash Tampa Bay -158, but I'll look to turn it around and have a big week this week.
Like Steve, I have to put the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional.** I do this for fun, use my free time to research my favorite plays, and give a little of my insight into why I'm doing a particular play. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me.
- 2022 Record: 11-11, -0.68 units
- Spread: 5-3, +1.5 units
- Total/Team Total: 4-7, -3.66 units
- Moneyline: 1-1, +0.18 units
- Props: 0-0
- Parlays/Teasers: 1-0, +1.3 units
Be sure to follow me on the Twitter machine @LucidMediaDFS. It's not only a goal to have a better season, but I'm looking for more engagement on Twitter this season, so feel free to hit me up! Now down to the nitty-gritty – please remember this is all for entertainment. With that, I hope you enjoy it, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Week 9 NFL Betting Picks - Money Line
Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
Sunday 11/13, 9:30pm AM EST | O/U: 44.5
I'll start things off out in Munich, Germany as the Seahawks and Buccaneers head to Europe for this week's iteration of the NFL international series. If you would've told me before the season that come Week 10, the Seahawks would only be two-and-a-half point underdogs against the Buccaneers, and that I would be taking their money line, I would've called you crazy.
Nevertheless, here we are. Geno Smith has been awesome this season, and the Seahawks come into this Week 10 matchup with DVOA edges everywhere. They project to a 21.7% passing DVOA (to Tampa's 12.7%), as well as a rushing DVOA of -0.5% to Tampa Bay's -28.1%. The Buccaneers have struggled to move the ball, and are one Tom Brady game-winning drive (or lack thereof) from being 3-6 midway through the season.
The Seahawks' defense seems to finally be coming into its own, and if you're looking at results over perception, Geno Smith has played better than Tom Brady this season (seriously, what world are we living in?!). My model gives the Seahawks a 52.43%, good for "true" odds of -110, which is a slight edge compared to FanDuel's line of +118.
Pick: Seattle ML (+118, Fanduel) Bet 1 Unit
Week 9 NFL Betting Picks - Spread
Houston Texans at New York Giants (-5.5)
Sunday 11/13, 1:00 PM EST | O/U: 41.5
Another surprising team on the season would be the New York Giants. A well-coached team that's capable of running the ball and playing quality defense, the Giants have shocked the world, starting 6-2. Head coach Brian Daboll is certainly in the conversation for Coach of the Year and will look to put another stamp on the resume this Sunday against the lowly Texans.
Although Houston had their "mini-bye" after their Thursday Night Football loss to Philadelphia last Thursday, the Giants had themselves a "regular" bye, and have had two weeks to prepare for this game. The Giants have a strong DVOA advantage in all places here as well, coming in with a projected 21.5% passing DVOA and 21.8% rushing DVOA, compared to Houston's projections of -8.1% and -6.8%, respectively.
I figured at worst this game would be relatively close to even before the season started, but once again, here we are. The Giants are the clearly better-coached team here, and I'll look for Saquon Barkley to run all over Houston's run defense that ranks dead last in nearly every category. My model gives the Giants a 61.47% chance of covering the 5.5 spread, winning by a final score of 25.58-16.48.
Pick: Giants -5.5 (-105, Fanduel) Bet 1 Unit
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Week 9 NFL Betting Picks - Money Line
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Sunday 11/13 | 1:00 PM EST | O/U: 38.5
I'll finish things off out in Tennessee, as the up-and-down Broncos behind Russell Wilson will head out and (seemingly) take on Ryan Tannehill and the Titans. My opinions on this game with marginally change should it be Malik Willis under center for the Titans on Sunday, but all signs are pointing to it being Tannehill, who practiced in full on Thursday.
Similar to both teams I have mentioned previously, the DVOA signs are pointing toward the Titans in this matchup. While the Broncos do have the passing DVOA advantage, with a projected -11.2% passing DVOA while the Titans have a -25.5% passing DVOA, the Titans are heavily favored where it matters: the run game. They bring in a projected 9.64% rushing DVOA, while the Broncos' projected rushing DVOA sits at a horrid -35.3%.
Derrick Henry will the "x-factor" here, as he typically is, and I'm expecting him to take over the game in this one. It's a good defense against a good defense in this one, and despite the Broncos having had an extra week to prepare, the Titans are clearly the better-coached team here. My model gives the Titans a 64.35% chance of winning this one, good for "true" odds of -181, which is quite an edge relative to FanDuel's line of -148. My model has a final score of 22.52-17.34 in favor of Tennessee.
Pick: Tennessee ML (-148, FanDuel) Bet to win 1 Unit
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