X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Matt Donnelly's Super Bowl LVIII Prop Bets

George Kittle - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, Draft Targets

Our own Matt Donnelly gives you top NFL betting picks and best bets for Super Bowl LVIII. His favorite NFL betting picks for NFL player props bets for the Super Bowl.

We’ve been talking about the Super Bowl for two weeks and the big game is now a few days away, which sadly means the conclusion of the NFL season. Let's not dwell on the end, but rather, let’s think of it more as a time to begin talking about those Super Bowl Prop bets.

Here I preview Super Bowl LVIII between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs this week while breaking down some of my favorite prop bets.

The odds on these bets vary from book to book and constantly change. I would advise you to shop around and find the best odds and numbers for these props that you can. I used DraftKings Sportsbook for convenience but check out other books to find the best value!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

How Did We Get Here

Well, the Kansas City Chiefs have been there and done that now in four of the last six seasons with Patrick Mahomes under center while hoisting the Lombardi Trophy last season as well as back in Super Bowl 54 when they defeated this 49ers team in Hard Rock Stadium 31-20. It's crazy to think that we were possibly an elbow injury away from seeing the Chiefs vs the 49ers in three of the last five Super Bowls.

Statistically speaking this has been Patrick Mahomes' worst season to date. He threw a career-high 14 interceptions this season while throwing just 27 touchdown passes and averaging just 261 passing yards per contest. Make no mistake, regardless of the numbers the Chiefs have been winning. Mahomes has played the part, dare I say it, a game manager throwing just a single touchdown in 5 of the final 6 Chiefs contests during the regular season and continuing that trend with just 4 touchdown passes in 3 playoff games.

Yet, here he is once again leading the Chiefs into Vegas for another shot at the Lombardi trophy. Betting against Mahomes doesn't usually pay as he is now 10-1-1 in his career as a dog, and guess what, the 49ers are favorites to win this one.

Mahomes has played mistake-free football this postseason, with no turnovers, in fact of his 103 pass attempts he has not thrown a single turnover-worthy pass. Mahomes has also added 84 rushing yards and has avoided being sacked as he has only been brought down behind the line of scrimmage on a pair of occasions.

Brock Purdy, on the other hand, has thrown a pick while having a couple of interceptions dropped along the way. Purdy’s mistakes have gotten the 49ers in trouble this post-season as they have found themselves trailing in the second half and needing to come back to get to where they are. If you are looking at another bet, conventional wisdom suggests, the Chiefs should be leading after the first quarter (-102 DK)

 

Super Bowl LVIII Props

Patrick Mahomes OVER 25.5 rushing yards (-125 DK)

Expect to see Mahomes use his legs once again this week, as Nick Bosa will be looking to get after it and help a 49ers pass rush that has generated pressure just 21.7% in the last 2 contests. It will be interesting to see how the Chiefs tackle Donovan Smith who apparently would rather be a Jets and Jawan Taylor who is the most penalized tackle this season hold up against the all-pro. Right now Mahomes rushing prop is set at 25.5 and with everything I just said I am taking the OVER here. I am also old enough to remember the last Super Bowl meeting between these 2 teams in which Mahomes rushing line was set at 29 and he had 44 yards until he took a knee on 3 consecutive plays and lost 15 yards and went UNDER that prop.

Brock Purdy OVER 0.5 interceptions (-140 DK)

I mention Brock Purdy and his turnover-worthy plays and I fully expect him to hit the OVER when it comes to that 1 interception, he has thrown at least 1 pick in 7 of the last 13 games a trend that has continued into the post-season. Kansas City’s defense has been frustrating their opponents including NFL MVP Lamar Jackson throughout this season allowing just 196.7 passing yards per game along with the second-fewest yards per attempt (5.89).

Brock Purdy OVER 12.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)

Expect Kansas City to play plenty of man coverage which they did at the 10th-highest clip while their safeties remain high. This is important to note for two reasons; Brock Purdy has a rushing yards prop of 12.5 yards and with the middle of the field open and the corners playing man he should easily hit the OVER on that prop having already run for 62 yards this postseason. Kansas City has allowed the 10th most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season allowing just over 20 yards per game.

Deebo Samuel OVER 58.5 yards receiving (-130) and OVER 4.5 receptions (-135)

The middle of the field should be heavily targeted. Sure, that will lead to turnover-worthy passes but looking at what Purdy’s distribution of targets looks like when given the middle of the field you can look at some of these other props for his playmakers. This season, Deebo Samuel has 44 targets, Christian McCaffery has 43, Brandon Aiyuk 32, and Goerge Kittle just 29. With what I expect the Chiefs to be offering Purdy I am expecting Deebo Samuel to hit the OVER on both his receptions prop (4.5) and his yardage prop (58.5).

That Two-high safety look, which the Chiefs used 70% of the time is perfect for Samuel who already averages 3.2 yards per route run when facing it not to mention a 23.7% target share. Trent McDuffie will be asked to cover Samuel but he simply moves around too much whereas the expectation is L’Jarius Snead will be on Brandon Aiyuk much of the game in a matchup I’m looking to fade as we talk props, especially with Aiyuks’ reception total sitting at 4.5.

Rashee Rice OVER 6.5 receptions (-115 DK)

When was the last time a dude named Rice didn’t hit the over on a prop bet like that in the Super Bowl? In Rice’s last 10 contests, he has 65 receptions for 783 yards while being targeted 86 times over those 10 contests, including at least 9 targets in 7 of his last 10 games. 

Mahomes gave up on his other receivers pretty much just targeting Kelce and Rice this postseason as Rice has assumed a 23.4% first-read target share. I know Rice has failed to produce more than 50 yards in back-to-back contests but there is too much volume not to take a shot on the yardage prop and you are hitting the over on the 6.5 receptions.

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Super Bowl LVIII Props

Travis Kelce OVER 6.5 receptions (-166) and OVER 70.5 receiving yards (-130)

We know Travis Kelce is almost a lock to hit his 6.5 receptions and 70.5-yard prop bets. Kelce had a down year, by his standards in the regular season, but his down year is still at a Pro Bowl level. If this were the regular season I may take a hard pause on these bets as Kelce only had 71 yards in 8 of his 18 this season, however, a mark he has reached in all 3 playoff contests.

We all witnessed what Sam LaPorta did to this 49ers defense in the NFC Championship game hauling in 9 passes for 97 yards, and he is coming off an 11-catch, 116-yard performance himself in the AFC Championship contest. The same story plays out for his receptions in which he only caught 7 or more targets in seven of his previous 18 contests, but has done so in 2 of the 3 post-season games.

George Kittle OVER 3.5 (-170) receptions and UNDER 47.5 receiving yards (-115)

 George Kittle has a much lower prop bet set at 3.5 receptions here. Against that two-high safety look, Kittle is averaging 1.30 yards per route run while being targeted 14.2% of the time which is the lowest of the 4 major weapons at Purdy’s disposal.

If the Chiefs ran more single high then Kittle and Aiyuk both see significant upgrades, but right now I may be tempted to take the over on the 3.5 receptions but the UNDER when it comes to the 47.5 receiving yards. I’m still kinda hurt by the fact that Kittle had just 2 receptions for 27 yards in what was a great matchup against the Lions in the NFC Championship, and hell have no fury like a scorned fantasy football manager.

Isiah Pacheco OVER 66.5 rushing yards (-130) and OVER 2.5 receptions (-175)

We just saw David Montgomery and Jaymyr Gibbs gash the 49ers defense for like 180 yards and 3 touchdowns in that NFC Championship game, which worked out to something like 6.3 yards per carry. In the previous playoff contest, it was Aaron Jones who averaged 6 yards per carry on the ground on his way to 108 rushing yards. Pacheco has produced 65 or more yards in 4 straight games and if the last couple of games are any indication then we should expect some big plays from this Chiefs running game. 

San Francisco yielded an explosive play on 8.9% of the run plays in each of their playoff contests this post-season, run plays that went for at least 15 yards. That said you could take a shot at the longest run OVER 15.5 yards considering how the 49ers have been allowing these explosive plays at an alarming rate throughout this playoff run.

Sure Jerrick McKinnon may return, he was activated ahead of the game, but I don’t see him cutting into Pacheco’s workload. With Jerrick McKinnon still recovering from that hernia, Pacheco at 2.5 receptions is another solid play.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Uchenna Nwosu

Seahawks Place Uchenna Nwosu on PUP List
Taylor Decker

Alim McNeill, Taylor Decker Placed on PUP List
Tyrion Davis-Price

Titans Waive Tyrion Davis-Price
Tre Harris

Chargers Relying on Tre Harris to Be Starting X Receiver
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Micah Parsons

Will Become Highest-Paid Non-QB
MarShawn Lloyd

Vying for RB2 Role
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith Finds End Zone in First Training Camp Practice
Tyler Shough

Pushing for Fully Guaranteed Rookie Deal
Ar'Darius Washington

Goes on PUP List
Lamar Jackson

to be Even Better in 2025?
Tre Harris

Agrees to Terms on Rookie Deal
Justin Herbert

Off to Good Start at Training Camp
Jameson Williams

Earning Rave Reviews from Lions Coaches
Christian Mahogany

Expected to Start for Lions
Zach Allen

an Extension Candidate in Denver?
Zaire Franklin

May Miss Start of Training Camp
Portland Trail Blazers

Damian Lillard Returning to Portland
Mason Taylor

to Play "Crucial" Role in Jets' Offense
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
T.J. Watt

Once Again Becomes Highest-Paid Non-QB
RJ Harvey

Reaches Agreement on Four-Year Rookie Contract
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Believe Rashee Rice Will Receive Two- to Four-Game Suspension
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF