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Matt Donnelly's Super Bowl LVIII Prop Bets

George Kittle - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, Draft Targets

We’ve been talking about the Super Bowl for two weeks and the big game is now a few days away, which sadly means the conclusion of the NFL season. Let's not dwell on the end, but rather, let’s think of it more as a time to begin talking about those Super Bowl Prop bets.

Here I preview Super Bowl LVIII between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs this week while breaking down some of my favorite prop bets.

The odds on these bets vary from book to book and constantly change. I would advise you to shop around and find the best odds and numbers for these props that you can. I used DraftKings Sportsbook for convenience but check out other books to find the best value!

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How Did We Get Here

Well, the Kansas City Chiefs have been there and done that now in four of the last six seasons with Patrick Mahomes under center while hoisting the Lombardi Trophy last season as well as back in Super Bowl 54 when they defeated this 49ers team in Hard Rock Stadium 31-20. It's crazy to think that we were possibly an elbow injury away from seeing the Chiefs vs the 49ers in three of the last five Super Bowls.

Statistically speaking this has been Patrick Mahomes' worst season to date. He threw a career-high 14 interceptions this season while throwing just 27 touchdown passes and averaging just 261 passing yards per contest. Make no mistake, regardless of the numbers the Chiefs have been winning. Mahomes has played the part, dare I say it, a game manager throwing just a single touchdown in 5 of the final 6 Chiefs contests during the regular season and continuing that trend with just 4 touchdown passes in 3 playoff games.

Yet, here he is once again leading the Chiefs into Vegas for another shot at the Lombardi trophy. Betting against Mahomes doesn't usually pay as he is now 10-1-1 in his career as a dog, and guess what, the 49ers are favorites to win this one.

Mahomes has played mistake-free football this postseason, with no turnovers, in fact of his 103 pass attempts he has not thrown a single turnover-worthy pass. Mahomes has also added 84 rushing yards and has avoided being sacked as he has only been brought down behind the line of scrimmage on a pair of occasions.

Brock Purdy, on the other hand, has thrown a pick while having a couple of interceptions dropped along the way. Purdy’s mistakes have gotten the 49ers in trouble this post-season as they have found themselves trailing in the second half and needing to come back to get to where they are. If you are looking at another bet, conventional wisdom suggests, the Chiefs should be leading after the first quarter (-102 DK)

 

Super Bowl LVIII Props

Patrick Mahomes OVER 25.5 rushing yards (-125 DK)

Expect to see Mahomes use his legs once again this week, as Nick Bosa will be looking to get after it and help a 49ers pass rush that has generated pressure just 21.7% in the last 2 contests. It will be interesting to see how the Chiefs tackle Donovan Smith who apparently would rather be a Jets and Jawan Taylor who is the most penalized tackle this season hold up against the all-pro. Right now Mahomes rushing prop is set at 25.5 and with everything I just said I am taking the OVER here. I am also old enough to remember the last Super Bowl meeting between these 2 teams in which Mahomes rushing line was set at 29 and he had 44 yards until he took a knee on 3 consecutive plays and lost 15 yards and went UNDER that prop.

Brock Purdy OVER 0.5 interceptions (-140 DK)

I mention Brock Purdy and his turnover-worthy plays and I fully expect him to hit the OVER when it comes to that 1 interception, he has thrown at least 1 pick in 7 of the last 13 games a trend that has continued into the post-season. Kansas City’s defense has been frustrating their opponents including NFL MVP Lamar Jackson throughout this season allowing just 196.7 passing yards per game along with the second-fewest yards per attempt (5.89).

Brock Purdy OVER 12.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)

Expect Kansas City to play plenty of man coverage which they did at the 10th-highest clip while their safeties remain high. This is important to note for two reasons; Brock Purdy has a rushing yards prop of 12.5 yards and with the middle of the field open and the corners playing man he should easily hit the OVER on that prop having already run for 62 yards this postseason. Kansas City has allowed the 10th most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season allowing just over 20 yards per game.

Deebo Samuel OVER 58.5 yards receiving (-130) and OVER 4.5 receptions (-135)

The middle of the field should be heavily targeted. Sure, that will lead to turnover-worthy passes but looking at what Purdy’s distribution of targets looks like when given the middle of the field you can look at some of these other props for his playmakers. This season, Deebo Samuel has 44 targets, Christian McCaffery has 43, Brandon Aiyuk 32, and Goerge Kittle just 29. With what I expect the Chiefs to be offering Purdy I am expecting Deebo Samuel to hit the OVER on both his receptions prop (4.5) and his yardage prop (58.5).

That Two-high safety look, which the Chiefs used 70% of the time is perfect for Samuel who already averages 3.2 yards per route run when facing it not to mention a 23.7% target share. Trent McDuffie will be asked to cover Samuel but he simply moves around too much whereas the expectation is L’Jarius Snead will be on Brandon Aiyuk much of the game in a matchup I’m looking to fade as we talk props, especially with Aiyuks’ reception total sitting at 4.5.

Rashee Rice OVER 6.5 receptions (-115 DK)

When was the last time a dude named Rice didn’t hit the over on a prop bet like that in the Super Bowl? In Rice’s last 10 contests, he has 65 receptions for 783 yards while being targeted 86 times over those 10 contests, including at least 9 targets in 7 of his last 10 games. 

Mahomes gave up on his other receivers pretty much just targeting Kelce and Rice this postseason as Rice has assumed a 23.4% first-read target share. I know Rice has failed to produce more than 50 yards in back-to-back contests but there is too much volume not to take a shot on the yardage prop and you are hitting the over on the 6.5 receptions.

 

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Super Bowl LVIII Props

Travis Kelce OVER 6.5 receptions (-166) and OVER 70.5 receiving yards (-130)

We know Travis Kelce is almost a lock to hit his 6.5 receptions and 70.5-yard prop bets. Kelce had a down year, by his standards in the regular season, but his down year is still at a Pro Bowl level. If this were the regular season I may take a hard pause on these bets as Kelce only had 71 yards in 8 of his 18 this season, however, a mark he has reached in all 3 playoff contests.

We all witnessed what Sam LaPorta did to this 49ers defense in the NFC Championship game hauling in 9 passes for 97 yards, and he is coming off an 11-catch, 116-yard performance himself in the AFC Championship contest. The same story plays out for his receptions in which he only caught 7 or more targets in seven of his previous 18 contests, but has done so in 2 of the 3 post-season games.

George Kittle OVER 3.5 (-170) receptions and UNDER 47.5 receiving yards (-115)

 George Kittle has a much lower prop bet set at 3.5 receptions here. Against that two-high safety look, Kittle is averaging 1.30 yards per route run while being targeted 14.2% of the time which is the lowest of the 4 major weapons at Purdy’s disposal.

If the Chiefs ran more single high then Kittle and Aiyuk both see significant upgrades, but right now I may be tempted to take the over on the 3.5 receptions but the UNDER when it comes to the 47.5 receiving yards. I’m still kinda hurt by the fact that Kittle had just 2 receptions for 27 yards in what was a great matchup against the Lions in the NFC Championship, and hell have no fury like a scorned fantasy football manager.

Isiah Pacheco OVER 66.5 rushing yards (-130) and OVER 2.5 receptions (-175)

We just saw David Montgomery and Jaymyr Gibbs gash the 49ers defense for like 180 yards and 3 touchdowns in that NFC Championship game, which worked out to something like 6.3 yards per carry. In the previous playoff contest, it was Aaron Jones who averaged 6 yards per carry on the ground on his way to 108 rushing yards. Pacheco has produced 65 or more yards in 4 straight games and if the last couple of games are any indication then we should expect some big plays from this Chiefs running game. 

San Francisco yielded an explosive play on 8.9% of the run plays in each of their playoff contests this post-season, run plays that went for at least 15 yards. That said you could take a shot at the longest run OVER 15.5 yards considering how the 49ers have been allowing these explosive plays at an alarming rate throughout this playoff run.

Sure Jerrick McKinnon may return, he was activated ahead of the game, but I don’t see him cutting into Pacheco’s workload. With Jerrick McKinnon still recovering from that hernia, Pacheco at 2.5 receptions is another solid play.



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