X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Yardage Regression Candidates - 2024 NFL Sleepers and Busts

DeAndre Hopkins - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Justin Carter looks at four fantasy football wide receivers who are set to have fewer receiving yards in 2024 than 2023. These candidates are potential fantasy fallers.

The 2023 NFL season featured some impressive performances by wide receivers, but not all of those performances feel sustainable heading into the future. Various factors should lead to various shifts in production.

Today, we'll be looking at some wide receivers who had a lot of receiving yards in 2023 and discussing why their 2024 outlook is worse than last season as far as yardage goes.

Below are four negative yardage regression candidates at wide receiver for the 2024 NFL season.

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

 

Puka Nacua - Los Angeles Rams

Puka Nacua was just so good as a rookie that this projection here is simply about the fact that there's really not much room for Nacua's production to increase, which makes it more likely that he will see a drop in his numbers in 2024.

In 2023, the rookie out of BYU caught 105 passes for 1,486 yards, but that came with the Rams' No. 1 receiver Cooper Kupp missing five games. Even with Nacua's breakout rookie year, Kupp's presence still looms large as an impediment to Nacua equaling last year's yardage numbers.

And even beyond how a healthy Kupp will lead to fewer opportunities, it's just tough to get almost 1,500 yards in a season, and it's tough to do it multiple seasons in a row. Two players topped 1,400 yards in both 2022 and 2023: Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown. Those are the elites of the elite at wide receiver. Is Nacua on that same level? Maybe! But am I confident betting that he's at that level? Nope. The likelier outcome here is that Nacua is a really, really good wide receiver who probably isn't in a position to equal his 2023 production.

 

DJ Moore - Chicago Bears

DJ Moore served as Chicago's No. 1 receiver last season, catching 96 passes for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns. It was a huge year for the former Carolina Panther, and it could have been even better had Justin Fields been healthy all year. Per RotoViz, Moore averaged 88.69 yards in the 13 games that Fields played. That extrapolates out to 1,508 yards.

But that all happened with Moore as the clear top receiver on the 2023 Bears team. That simply isn't the case in 2024, as the team added veteran Keenan Allen and then drafted Rome Odunze in the first round. Add in that the team has a rookie quarterback, and you get a tough situation to predict.

While Moore should be the No. 1 receiver again for the Bears, his targets should go down as long as Allen is healthy and Odunze makes a quick transition to the NFL. That's just the reality of going from the No. 1 option in an offense that lacked weapons to the No. 1 option in an offense that has other weapons. There are other places the ball could go now. It's good news for Moore if he wants to play in the postseason for the first time in his NFL career, but it's not necessarily good news for fantasy managers hoping for a repeat of 2023.

 

Nico Collins - Houston Texans

2023 was a breakout campaign for Nico Collins as he caught 80 passes for 1,297 yards, but the Texans added Stefon Diggs this offseason, which complicates things in Houston. Collins looked like a true No. 1 receiver last season, but Diggs has a track record of being a No. 1 receiver as well.

Then there's the return of Tank Dell. As a rookie, Dell played 11 games and saw his season end early with a fractured fibula. In those 11 games, Dell caught 47 passes for 709 yards and seven touchdowns. Now, the splits from last season are interesting because, per RotoViz, Collins averaged 91.1 receiving yards in games Dell played and 77.2 when Dell didn't, suggesting that Dell's presence helped Collins. But with Diggs coming into the fold, things get really complicated here, so I'm not going to read too much into the five-game sample of Collins' production without Dell on the field.

The main thing here is that, just like with the Bears, this receiving situation gets a lot more crowded. However, Collins is dealing with something that Moore isn't. While Allen and Odunze are talented players, their addition doesn't change the fact that Moore is the team's No. 1 receiver.

In Houston, the addition of Diggs might actually do that. There's talk about how Diggs isn't quite the same receiver he used to be, but this is still a guy who caught 107 passes for 1,183 yards last year. Sure, it was his fewest yards since joining the Bills, but he's still a high-end NFL receiver. Collins will almost certainly see fewer opportunities with Diggs on the opposite side.

 

DeAndre Hopkins - Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans remade their wide receiver room this offseason, adding Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. Last year, in his first season with Tennessee, Hopkins had his first 1,000-yard season since 2020, catching 75 passes for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns.

But Hopkins did that while playing in an offense where the second-most-targeted wide receiver was Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Hopkins was targeted 137 times, while Westbrook-Ikhine had 45 passes go his way.

That's a huge gap, and it's a gap that's set to really slam shut in 2024 with Ridley and Boyd on the team. Those additions leave Hopkins in a weird spot as the 32-year-old receiver tries to figure out his role. He's still a really good player, but is he that much better than Ridley? And will Boyd take over some of the short and intermediate plays?

And what about the quarterback position? Will Levis started nine games as a rookie, throwing for 1,808 yards, an average of 200.9 yards per game. That ranks 22nd among qualifying quarterbacks. Simply put, Levis needs to really vault up that list if he's going to support three receivers in this offense, and there are plenty of questions about whether he's capable of doing that. There's just too many question marks in Tennessee right now.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Back in Action to Begin Second Half
Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF