Fantasy Football Outlooks For QBs On New Teams: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, more

April 3, 2025

John Johnson breaks down the fantasy football outlooks of the free-agent quarterbacks who changed teams in the early days of 2025 NFL free agency. Who landed in a good/bad situation?

The NFL quarterback carousel gets to spin every offseason, and plenty of QBs have already found new homes ahead of the 2025 NFL season. For fantasy football, a player's surrounding team is extremely important, so it's worth looking into each of their outlooks with their new squads.

There are still a few unsigned QBs, but the majority have already found new homes. These teams have also made other moves that will have an impact on their signal-callers' production, and their offensive coaching staffs' philosophies should be taken into account sometimes, too.

That's a lot to digest, though sometimes, evaluating certain players is a bit easier, and some of the factors are either negligible or not much different than they were on their previous teams. So, let's dive into this year's quarterback carousel with fantasy football outlooks for all the biggest QBs who have landed on new teams ahead of the 2025 NFL season.

Signed Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson, QB, New York Giants

There's plenty of buzz around Wilson going to the Giants and linking up with star wide receiver Malik Nabers. But I'm not sure this move is great for either of them.

While Wilson had a decent stretch of games with the Pittsburgh Steelers last season, he's 36 years old and will be 37 in November. His mobility has faded markedly, and his upside isn't what it used to be. There are concerns that he'll hold Nabers, and thus himself, back pretty substantially.

If Russell Wilson ends up being the NY Giants starter (which seems likely at this point), it could be bad news for Malik Nabers.

Wilson has a real tendency to avoid throwing over the intermediate and deep middle of the field, limiting his pass attempts targeting posts, slants,… https://t.co/nhLPtuNcPz

— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) March 26, 2025

Wilson, for the past few years and most of his career, has not been willing to throw to certain areas of the field, and those are the places Nabers often ends up on the routes he runs in which he excels the most.

Fantasy managers will likely be infuriated watching a repeat of last season of sorts, with Wilson seeing him streaking open in the middle of the field and just refusing to throw it because he would rather usually just chuck it deep, check the ball down, or run it out of bounds to preserve his statistical prowess.

When Jameis Winston started last year, the Browns led the NFL in catchable air yards/game.

They ranked 3rd-worst by the same metric in all other games.

Any action Winston gets in New York is going to supercharge the production of all of their pass-catchers. pic.twitter.com/tnH1YgvAiz

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) March 25, 2025

Jameis Winston, for the few games he started, made Cleveland Browns wide receiver Jerry Jeudy look like a genuine league winner for a stretch, engineering his 40.5 PPR point explosion in Week 13, and also helped WR Cedric Tillman score 28.9 PPR points in Week 8 and aided WR Elijah Moore to his only two games with 17 or more points. And Jeudy is nowhere near the talent of Nabers.

The impact on Wilson of Winston's signing with his new team is less relevant, but it might honestly be a downgrade. Since Wilson might struggle to link with Nabers, though through his incompetence, we could see his worst season as a pro. I'm not particularly interested in having Wilson on any of my fantasy rosters in 2025.

Jameis Winston, QB, New York Giants

While he probably won't be the starter, in the same vein that Wilson is bad for Nabers, Winston will be ridiculously good for him. If you're a Nabers manager in either dynasty or redraft leagues, you want Winston to play as many games as possible. Basically, for the inverse of the reasoning above, and because Winston was just absurdly valuable in fantasy for his wide receivers.

#Throwback to @jerryjeudy’s career night on MNF:

👐9 catches
💨26.1 YPC, 235 receiving yards
🙌1 TD
🏈4th highest single game rec. yards in Browns’ history (per @statmuse)
🏟️36 0.5-PPR fantasy points (per @SleeperHQ)
😈 Revenge in Denver#DawgPound

pic.twitter.com/pbWeuRWjV6

— SleeperBrowns (@SleeperBrowns) March 24, 2025

A full season with Winston as the starter would likely lead to a historic fantasy year from Nabers. Winston would sling the ball his way constantly, not be afraid to throw it downfield to him (even if he risked throwing picks), and wouldn't be worried about throwing it over the middle of the field where Wilson is scared to throw it because Mr. Stat Padder wants to make sure his passer rating and completion percentage stay high.

He's a good spot starter if Wilson gets hurt, though. With Nabers, he could have some nice games.

Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks

This is objectively a bad landing spot for Darnold. He and Seahawks general manager John Schneider might be the worst quarterback/GM pairing in the league because Schneider refuses to put together a good offensive line, whether through the NFL Draft or free agency, and Darnold simply cannot play well behind a poor offensive line. Seattle will dearly miss Geno Smith, its quarterback last year, in 2025.

John Schneider shared how a fan recently lightly accosted him in public for not addressing the offensive line, and it is very very funny: pic.twitter.com/IS1f3xcvbj

— Evan Hill (@EvanHillHB) March 27, 2025

It's hilarious for him, but it won't be for fantasy managers of any Seattle offensive players. It's important, of course, that wide receiver DK Metcalf was traded away.

Behind a poor offensive line, which the draft can't come close to fully addressing, Schneider's genius telling him not to shell out any cash for the solid options that were available as FAs, and with just WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba as his only good receiving option, things should be rough for Darnold.

Sam Darnold sacked himself on third down #DENvsNYJ pic.twitter.com/ijIPSPhiDR

— Someone's An Idiot (@SomeonesAnIdiot) October 2, 2020

Darnold has a history of creating his sacks, and he won't have the luxury of playing behind one of the league's best offensive lines in 2025 as he did in 2024. Offensive line play often drives narratives around quarterbacks.

Darnold was "all the way back," and everyone was so wrong about him until the final two games of the 2024 season, when the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams made him look like he was in his early playing days.

Geno Smith, QB, Las Vegas Raiders 

Smith is probably in a better situation than he was before. The Raiders are not a sexy team for quarterbacks, and Smith isn't a sexy pick in fantasy football.

He's 34 years old and will turn 35 in October, so that's reasonable, though his mobility was impressive last season. It helped him succeed despite the terrible offensive line he played behind and the injury to Metcalf, who missed a few games and just wasn't the same when he returned.

the Steelers posted 3 minutes of DK Metcalf highlights…

but I see 3 minutes of perfectly placed Geno Smith dimes

watch it from that perspective 👀pic.twitter.com/hu9mWrZbal

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 26, 2025

The Raiders don't exactly have an elite receiving group, though. While they do have tight end Brock Bowers, the best pass-catching tight end in the league in 2024, their WR1 is Jakobi Meyers, who might be better suited as a WR2, and they have very little depth behind him.

Vegas needs to invest in the WR position in the 2025 NFL Draft. If it doesn't, this could be somewhat of a side-grade for Smith, fantasy football-wise.

Last season with the Seahawks, Smith's stats were a bit artificially inflated by the offense he operated in. OC Ryan Grubb called far more pass plays than he should have, and the extra attempts helped Smith get more passing yards and touchdowns. The Raiders seem poised to take a premier running back from the 2025 draft class, so Smith will likely average fewer pass attempts per game.

However, they do have a better offensive line, and most of his highlights from the past two seasons show him evading pressure and still making big plays. Perhaps he won't need a better receiving corps than he has to be fantasy-relevant, though I don't see him becoming a top-12 QB in fantasy point scoring in 2025.

In 1QB leagues, he's a fine backup and could have stretches of QB1 production, but he's unlikely to be a good starter.

Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets

Fields will be the starting quarterback for the Jets in 2025 since he signed a two-year, $40 million contract with the team. He'll once again become one of the most polarizing QBs to own in the league, though I'm not sure he'll be able to replicate his 2022 season, where he finished as QB7 overall. Fields has major rushing upside, and he's just 26 years old and still in his prime.

How bad has Caleb Williams been?

In terms of accuracy and sack avoidance, it's the worst QB season in recent memory. Worse than any season from Zach Wilson, Bryce Young, or Justin Fields, as impossible as that may seem

cc: @FantasyPtsData / @fball_insights pic.twitter.com/ulS1DDvn6z

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 15, 2024

There are a few major issues with Fields' game. One is that he struggles to avoid sacks. In the chart above, you can see Fields' 2022 season near the bottom left, indicating that his catchable throw rate and pressure-to-sack ratio were dismal. Another issue is his inability to read defenses, often missing wide-open receivers and choosing to try to scramble out of pressure, which often leads to more sacks.

Fields is not a very good NFL passer, despite the insistence of social media posters with one or a few clips of him completing deep passes, sometimes on the run. He has the arm talent, but what's between the ears is much more important for QB play.

I wouldn't say Fields will be benched because there's no one behind him, but he might be extremely inconsistent. The Jets have a new offensive coaching staff, and it's hard to know if they'll succeed.

Justin Fields is the top QB riser in our latest Dynasty rankings update after getting "starter" money from the Jets.

Will Fields become a star in NY? pic.twitter.com/CSAIOoej5P

— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) March 24, 2025

But ... the rushing upside he has is so tantalizing that he's worth taking a shot on in fantasy drafts, even in 1QB leagues. If Jets running back Breece Hall returns to form and the new offensive staff opts for a run-heavy game plan, we could see some more monster fantasy games from Fields. He rushed for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns in 2022.

I'm not sure how this iteration of the Jets offensive line and wide receiver Garrett Wilson would be strictly better than the Bears OL he played behind, which was much maligned and through little fault of its own, for Fields' propensity to create sacks, and WR DJ Moore.

So, the situation doesn't feel that much different to me than before. He'll have a top-10 upside season-long and likely be inconsistent but be a must-start in 2QB leagues and an intriguing, high-upside pick in best ball formats.

QB Cooper Rush, Baltimore Ravens 

I'm not sure how much different things will be for Rush, who's only relevant in deep Superflex/2QB leagues anyway. Rush will be behind a great offensive line with some nice receiving weapons -- provided tight end Mark Andrews can still catch the ball -- and will have the support of a great run game with RB Derrick Henry.

BREAKING 🚨:

Baltimore Ravens sign QB Cooper Rush to a 2-Year deal worth $ 12.2 Million 🏉#nba #basketball #cooperrush #baltimoreravens #ravens pic.twitter.com/FJwJlYh6bh

— TrendingSportsPodcast (@TrendingSportsP) March 18, 2025

Rush has looked somewhat serviceable in recent seasons as a backup. In deeper leagues, he should be an immediate starter with a slightly higher upside than he had last year with the Cowboys if quarterback Lamar Jackson, the starter, got hurt. But Jackson has stayed healthy for most of his last two seasons and doesn't have a history of recurring injuries, so he should be fine.

Rush will be a decent handcuff for Jackson in those deep leagues.

QB Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

Jones will be playing behind a much, much better offensive line in Indy than he had with the New York Giants last season, especially after the injury to left tackle Andrew Thomas.

And Jones has a solid chance of taking over for quarterback Anthony Richardson as well. Richardson hasn't panned out as an NFL QB. An injury greatly shortened his 2023 debut, but more playing time in 2024 exposed his weaknesses.

#Colts HC Shane Steichen is getting bad flak for not calling shorter routes for Anthony Richardson.

This is just not true. Richardson chooses to bypass them.

Here, AR ignores a RB screen with multiple blockers in front, to take the deeper shot downfield to a TE who is well… pic.twitter.com/RxBTcuQVJA

— Lawrence Owen (@Colts_Law) October 31, 2024

There are two major problems with Richardson, and one or both of them stem from his inexperience. The first is that he makes poor decisions very often. This is the more likely of his issues to come from inexperience. The second is that he's terrible on horizontally breaking routes, and is one of the most inaccurate quarterbacks in the NFL on such throws.

Anthony Richardson today vs GB:

• 17-34, 204 Yards
• 1 TD
• 3 INT
• 41.8 Passer Rating

AR SHOOTING BLANKS 🔥💥🤯 pic.twitter.com/P19qivV1GK

— NFL Hater Watch (@NFLhaterwatch) September 15, 2024

Jones has the upside because he could be thrust into the starting position, and he could end up playing better than he did in New York.

This is more relevant for deeper and 2QB/Superflex leagues, but this could be the year that we see Richardson benched for good and turned into a developmental player or just a backup. In both dynasty and redraft leagues, Jones should be rostered at 100 percent.

Indy doesn't have an astounding receiving corps, but Jones still has nice value.

Unsigned Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers, Unrestricted Free Agent  

Joe Flacco, Unrestricted Free Agent

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