Third Base and Shortstop - Early 2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis

December 18, 2023

Eric Cross looks ahead to the 2024 fantasy baseball season and breaks down early ADP data for the third base and shortstop position.

It might only be the second week of December, but 2024 draft season is already beginning to heat up. Sites like NFBC and Fantrax make it easy to scratch that early draft itch and I've already completed one draft for 2024, a 50-round draft champions draft on NFBC.

I've been working through my early 2024 positional rankings and player projections over on my Patreon, so this draft was a good way to test out my rankings. And since I'm already full steam ahead with 2024 content and ADP analysis, I figured now was a great time to begin analyzing early 2024 ADP in articles here on RotoBaller. I've already looked at catcher, first base, and second base in a previous article, and I'll round out the infield today by digging into early third base and shortstop ADP.

This ADP is from 25 NFBC Draft Champion drafts completed since October 1. You'll find the ADP tables below along with my analysis of the ADP at the position, player values I like/dislike, etc. It's NEVER too early to discuss and draft for 2024!

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Third Base Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis

After a few years where the depth was tested at this position, the hot corner is once again becoming an incredibly deep position for fantasy purposes. In early 2024 drafts, we have five in the top 30 picks, six in the top 50, and 11 in the top 100. Well, top 100.44 if we're being precise. Most of those names are new additions to the top of third base ADP as we experienced a bit of a third base revolution in 2022.

Right off the bat, the big question at this position is if Elly De La Cruz is worth a top-20 overall selection. It's not often we see someone with less than a year of MLB experience go this highly in drafts, let alone one with a risky profile like De La Cruz possesses.

In his 427 plate appearances with the Reds, De La Cruz struck out 33.7% of the time with a 29.7% whiff rate, but his contact metrics were only slightly below league average and he was on a 650 PA pace of 20 home runs and 53 steals. Given his home ballpark, big power potential, and elite speed, a 30/50 season cannot be ruled out in 2024. And if he can trim the strikeout rate and maintain at least close to league-average contact rates, a .260 AVG is possible, especially in Great American Ball Park.

For more on Elly, check out my full Elly De La Cruz profile on my Patreon.

As long as you surround him with more stable star players in the first round and the next few rounds after him, I don't have a problem taking De La Cruz in the second round of fantasy drafts.

After De La Cruz, Gunnar Henderson and Royce Lewis have jumped up into the top 2-3 rounds of fantasy drafts with Henderson just inside the top 30 ADP on average and Lewis around 10-12 spots after that. Both of these spots are fair in my eyes, although I feel a bit more confident in Henderson returning a positive ROI in 2024. Why? Health.

Lewis is a potential top-20 overall player and we saw a glimpse of that upside in 2023 when he racked up 15 home runs and six steals in just 239 plate appearances with a .309/.372/.548 slash line. The upside is a 35/15 player and a potential first-round pick in 2025, but his multiple knee injuries are still worrisome, especially given his lofty ADP.

As we get into the back half of the top 100, you'll notice two former top-50 picks in Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado with ADPs of 73 and 94, respectively. Yes, it was a down year offensively for both, at least given their respective track records, but I'm not sure we're done seeing them provide top-50 overall value, especially with Machado still posting 30 home runs, 91 RBI, and 75 runs scored in his down season. His quality of contact metrics are still impressive and his contact, whiff, and chase rates are all in line with previous seasons. I'd bank on a bounce-back in 2024.

As for Arenado, I'm not quite as confident in a return to top-50 value, but his 94 ADP is more than fair. He still had 26 home runs, 93 RBI, and 71 runs last season and this St. Louis lineup is due for a rebound from several players. His floor is a top-100 player with what he did last season and I wouldn't be surprised to see him back up in the 30/100/80 range in 2024.

Third Basemen I Anticipate Having The Most Shares Of

• Noelvi Marte
• Jake Burger
• Ke'Bryan Hayes

The addition of Jeimer Candelario makes the Cincinnati Reds infield more crowded, but I'm anticipating a trade to alleviate that logjam. And assuming Noelvi Marte is playing regularly in 2024, he has a shot to take his current 145 ADP and cut that 2x or 3x in 2025 drafts. In 2023 with Cincinnati, Marte posted a 46.1% hard-hit rate, 91st percentile sprint speed, and around league-average contact rates. He has the skills to go 20+/20+ with a solid AVG and OBP in 2024 hitting in the middle of an exciting young Cincinnati lineup while playing half of his games in a hitter's paradise.

Even after mashing 34 home runs in 540 plate appearances last season, Jake Burger still feels like a nice value pick in 2024 drafts. The power is 100% legit as Burger recorded a stellar 16.7% barrel rate and 49.6% hard-hit rate, and he could easily eclipse 40 home runs in 2024 with another 100 plate appearances. A .250/40 season would look really damn good when coming from a near 170 ADP.

Lastly, Ke'Bryan Hayes is going to break out one of these years. Mark my words! In 2023, Hayes had a 92.2 mph AVG EV and 48.3% hard-hit rate, both of which were in the top 15% of hitters. On top of that, Hayes continues to show phenomenal plate discipline with a 19.8% strikeout rate, 21.2% whiff rate, and a zone contact rate of around 90%. I'm definitely willing to use a top-170 pick on him and hope that the breakout finally comes. If not, you likely won't lose value with this pick either.

Third Base ADPs I'm Not Keen On

• Ha-Seong Kim
• Isaac Paredes

Shortstop Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis

Once again, this shortstop position is incredibly talented and deep with eight in the top 50 ADP, 12 in the top 100, and 21 in the top 200. After a 30/49 season, you're going to seed a top-five pick to even have a chance of drafting Bobby Witt Jr., who isn't falling past pick four very often in drafts. Right behind Witt is Trea Turner, who needed a massive finish to the season to sneak back into the top 10 ADP. Could he return top-10 value in 2024? Absolutely. But given his subpar (for him) first 2/3 of 2023, I'm probably going to be passing on him in that range unless he falls a few picks.

After those two, I have zero issues with the ADPs of Elly De La Cruz, Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, Gunnar Henderson, or Bo Bichette, but CJ Abrams going in the third round of 15-team drafts is too rich for my drafting taste buds. While he's coming off an 18/47 season in 2023, Abrams' quality of contact metrics are below average and there's a much better chance that his home run total goes down and not up in 2024. Plus, the lineup around him isn't getting any better in Washington, so don't count on elite counting stats either. I'm not saying he can't provide plenty of value in 2024, but he's going a round or two before I'd be comfortable drafting him.

Nico Hoerner is another top-100 ADP I'll be passing on this year. The approach is elite, but Hoerner has very minimal power upside and would need to replicate his 40+ steals from 2023 to return equal value at this ADP, let alone a profit. If he falls to the 100+ range, I'd be more willing to buy in. But with a max pick of 100, that's unlikely to happen.

While this position is deep, don't wait too long to secure your starting shortstop or you'll be left with a SSSTWLMBAMCI. That long-winded acronym stands for "starting shortstop that would look much better as my corner infielder." If you don't secure one of the top dozen names or so, a shortstop run in the pick 130-155 range could leave you with Willy Adames or Ezequiel Tovar as your starting shortstop.

Shortsopts I Anticipate Having The Most Shares Of

• Matt McLain
• Oneil Cruz
• Trevor Story
• Jordan Lawlar

Give me all of the Matt McLain shares in 2023. In just 403 plate appearances with Cincinnati last season, McLain racked up 16 home runs and 14 steals with a .290/.357/.507 slash line. If you extrapolated out his stats to 650 plate appearances, you'd wind up with 105 runs, 26 home runs, 81 RBI, and 23 steals.

Those numbers are definitely in play for McLain in 2023 given his above-average quality of contact metrics, 90th percentile sprint speed, and hitter-friendly home park. However, I do think the average ticks down slightly as his contact metrics were slightly below the league average. Still, a .270/100/25/80/20 season would have him in the top 25 ADP in 2025.

Drafting the other three names above depends on the roster you already have when considering them. It's obvious that Oneil Cruz has early-round fantasy upside, but we've also seen the heightened risk surrounding him as well. A 25/15 season from Trevor Story is in play if he can stay healthy for at least 600 plate appearances in 2024, but is he going to stay on the field that much? If you have a solid core of reliable players already, taking a risk on one of these two makes a lot more sense.

As for Jordan Lawlar, I'm fully on board with him having a breakout season in 2024, but the recent acquisition of Eugenio Suarez makes this situation a bit less clear. With Geraldo Perdomo also in the mix, I wonder if Lawlar gets some time at Triple-A to open the season. A big showing in spring training could force the Diamondbacks' hand, though. If it looks like he'll open in the majors, don't shy away from Lawlar and his 20/25 potential as a high-upside middle infield target.

Early Shortstop ADPs I'm Not Keen On

• CJ Abrams
• Nico Hoerner
• Ha-Seong Kim

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