Early 2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis: Catcher, 1st Base, and 2nd Base

November 10, 2023

Eric Cross' looks ahead to the 2024 season and breaks down early ADP data for the first base, second base, and catcher position.

Remember years ago when you'd have to wait until at least January to draft? Not anymore. When one season ends, another begins. We live in a time where sites like NFBC and Fantrax allow you to draft for the following season as early as October, and many of us degenerates take advantage of that.

For me, I was going to wait until at least December for my first 2024 draft, but that itch to draft became too great to ignore and I hopped in a NFBC DC that started on November 8th. I've already been digging into data and formulating my 2024 rankings and projections, so I figured why not do at least one early draft.

And along with early 2024 drafts comes early 2024 content, and today specifically, early 2024 ADP analysis. There have been 19 drafts completed on NFBC so far which gives us a decent sample size to work with. I'll be starting with the catcher, first base, and second base positions today and follow this up with three more installments of this series, covering third base/shortstop, outfield, and pitchers.

It's NEVER too early to discuss and draft for 2024!

Early 2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis

Catchers

Keep in mind, the above ADP is from NFBC which are two-catcher formats. In single-catcher leagues, these catcher ADPs won't be quite as high.

For most of you reading this that are in single catcher formats, my initial thought is that this is a position you can wait on due to how deep it is. While I'm certainly enamored with options like William Contreras, Yainer Diaz, and Gabriel Moreno, plenty of other drafters are as well. If those guys are taken higher than I'm willing to go, I'm more than okay waiting several rounds and taking someone like Bo Naylor, Jonah Heim, or Logan O'Hoppe.

There's a clear-cut top four at this position and you're going to have to pay up if you want any of them on your team, especially in 2-catcher formats. I'm also expecting Yainer Diaz's ADP to only rise from here after the news came out about him being the main guy behind the plate in Houston next year. Diaz was phenomenal in his 377 plate appearances last season, rocking a .282/.308/.538 slash line along with a 12.2% barrel rate, 43.9% hard-hit rate, .287 xBA, .546 xSLG, and 23 home runs. With more than 500 plate appearances, Diaz could absolutely return top-5 value at this position. Yes, the approach is overly aggressive, but the contact skills are fine and he doesn't strike out much.

The Player(s) I Anticipate Having The Most Shares Of: Logan O'Hoppe, Yainer Diaz (If ADP doesn't rise too high)

Coming off a season where he missed the first two months, O'Hoppe still managed to swat 14 home runs in 199 plate appearances with a 15.6% barrel rate and 46.7% hard-hit rate. The average wasn't as rosy, but O'Hoppe showed better contact and approach metrics in the minors, so the lower average isn't much of a concern right now. This could be a top-5 catcher in 2024 with a current C14 price tag.

Early ADP(s) I'm Not Keen On: Sean Murphy, Salvador Perez

First Base

Finally, the first base position is back to being loaded and deep. Along with Bryce Harper transitioning to first base and Christopher Morel as well from the sounds of it, we have Vinnie Pasquantino and Rhys Hoskins returning from injury and will have full seasons from Triston Casas, Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand. On top of all of that, Kyle Manzardo is likely going to debut on opening day or shortly after that, adding another intriguing, young bat to the fray.

This is another position that you'll be able to wait on if you want to attack other positions. There's a massive glob in the ADP 105-140 range that I'm fine with taking as my starting first baseman, and if you really want to wait, Vinnie Pasquantino and Nathaniel Lowe are going in the 165-190 range on average as the 1B17 and 1B19 respectively.

There's nothing wrong with taking one of the elite names early either. Freddie Freeman has been arguably the most consistent elite performer in the game and I'm hoping that Harper staying at first base will help keep him on the field more moving forward.

The Player(s) I Anticipate Having The Most Shares Of: Triston Casas, Vinnie Pasquantino, Kyle Manzardo, Christian Encarnacion-Strand

Out of this group, Casas and Pasquantino are probably going to be the two I have the most shares of in 2024, especially if Manzardo's ADP continues creeping up following his strong showing in the Arizona Fall League. Casas was a top-5 fantasy first baseman over the final 40% of the season and looks primed to jump into the top-5 at this position this season. he's my 1B7 and is going off the board as the 1B10 on average right now. There absolutely should not be a 73-pick gap between him and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

As for Pasquantino, his lost 2023 season has dropped his ADP to a very reasonable level. Pasquantino has had a strikeout rate below 12%, whiff rate below 20%, hard-hit rate above 40%, and a zone contact rate above 90% in both of his first two seasons. As long as the shoulder hasn't zapped his power, Pasquantino could return a solid ROI this season.

Early ADP(s) I'm Not Keen On: Isaac Paredes, Spencer Steer, Yandy Diaz, Matt Olson

Paredes: The Quality of Contact metrics are below-average and don't support him being a 30-homer bat. I'm expecting a sizeable step back in the home run department this season.

Steer: In general, I'm a Steer believer for fantasy, but this comes down to him having limited ROI opportunity in my eyes.

Diaz: Same reasoning as Steer. Also, if the AVG drops a bit, he's probably a negative ROI player.

Olson: You're paying for him to basically repeat his 2023 performance or close to it. Could he? Sure. But that's going to be a tough performance to replicate.

Second Base

Having Mookie Betts eligible at second base (and shortstop in most leagues) is a damn cheat code. If you're first pick is anywhere in the 2-7 range, I'd absolutely be fine with taking Betts and enjoying elite production with two or three position eligibility. Betts is coming off what I would consider his second best fantasy season with a .307/.408/.579 slash line, 126 runs, 39 home runs, 107 RBI, and 14 steals. The elite ceiling and floor makes Betts worth the top-5 selection on draft day.

Alright, now that I'm done gushing about Betts (I'm still mad he's no longer on Boston), let's discuss the rest of the position. After Betts, Marcus Semien and Ozzie Albies represent tier 2 and I'd be fine with using a second or third round pick on either of them as this position starts getting shakier behind them. Do you want to use a top-40 pick on Jose Altuve? When healthy, he's absolutely a top-40 fantasy player, but Altuve is coming off a season where he played just 90 games and hasn't played in 150 games since 2017. In fact, if you look at his last six seasons, he's returned top-40 value once, maybe twice.

After Altuve, there are some solid prices for Matt McLain, Gleyber Torres, Bryson Stott, and Ketel Marte, but I'm not seeing a ton of glaring positive ROI possibilities at this position. If I'm not able to secure one of Betts, Albies, or Semien in the first few rounds, I'm probably going to target the quartet I just mentioned or wait until the ADP 180+ range and grab an upside play.

Speaking of that ADP 180+ range, that's where most of the positive ROI possibilities are being selected. You have Jonathan India, Nolan Gorman, and Edouard Julien in the 184-193 range along with Ronny Mauricio, Brandon Lowe, Jordan Westburg, and Gavin Lux in the ADP 250-290 range. I've never recommended to wait until after pick 250 to grav your starter at any position before, but it's not a terrible idea to explore at this second base position in 2024 if one of the earlier options doesn't fall to a range where they become a great value pick.

The Player(s) I Anticipate Having The Most Shares Of: Bryson Stott, Edouard Julien, Jordan Westburg, Gavin Lux

Early ADP(s) I'm Not Keen On: Jose Altuve, Nico Hoerner, Ha-Seong Kim

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