RADIO
Boy, do we have an interesting 10 game slate under the lights this evening. Pitching looks like it could be tough sledding, as there aren't many reliable arms, but stacking offenses should be a fun exercise with a lot of potentially lucrative directions to go in. There is a four game Early Only slate, but I'm going to concentrate this post on where the majority of the money and action is.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 8/15/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.
You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel, and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @kpLuch.
DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Zack Wheeler - SP, at BAL ($10,800)
After a rough start out of the gate, Zach Wheeler has been a strong pitcher this season and particularly great of late. It's reflected in the price, certainly, but I don't think it's risen to a point where he can't hit value comfortably and potentially exceed it thanks to his strikeout prowess. His SIERA now sits below 4.0 and he's posted a good 11.2% SwStrike rate to go with a 23.8% strikeout rate. In the second half of the season, he's been even stronger as that K% rises above 27% and he's allowed an opponent wOBA of just .190. He gets a negative park shift today, but the upside is high as this Orioles lineup strikes out at a high clip and they don't feature many left-handed bats. Between he and Gerrit Cole, Cole may have the slightly safer points floor (though he has been disapoointing by relative standards his last two starts) but I don't think Wheeler is too far behind that safe floor, and I like his ceiling more tomorrow. He has a bigger price discrepancy on DraftKings as well, so I like the discount he provides from Cole. He's my top GPP option and a solid cash one, too.
Robbie Erlin - SP, vs SDP ($4,900)
Let me preface this section by saying I don't have the utmost confidence in the vast majority of the pitchers starting tonight. With that in mind, it may be a night more suited for tournament play than cash games. But, as everything is relative in DFS, I will say I like Erlin has an SP2 tonight compared to the field, and that he's been pretty good this season. The price here is incredible, and the kid has posted a 3.22 SIERA (third lowest on the slate) and owns a 21.5% K rate this season. He takes on an Angels team that could be without Mike Trout as he tends to a personal matter, and their wOBA clip against lefties isn't very impressive anyway (.274). Erlin has done a good job this season at inducing soft contact and his strikeout rate (8.0 K/9) is respectable as well.
DraftKings DFS Infielders
Evan Gattis - C, vs COL ($3,900)
Catchers with home run upside are pretty scarce tonight. Gattis doesn't draw the easiest of matchups, but it isn't one to shy away from as Tyler Anderson has actually allowed more home runs per 9 on the road (1.40) than he has at home in Coors. Gattis of course brings big ISO power to the dish against southpaws with his .222 mark and his has an average exit velocity on balls hit of 93 mph over the past two weeks.
Ryan Zimmermann - 1B, at STL ($4,900)
Righties haven't had huge success against Austin Gomber in the small sample he's thrown in the majors (in regard to wOBA, ISO, etc) but he has allowed a 40% hard hit and a 40% fly ball rate to righties in that stretch. I like Zimmermann's chances tonight, especially as we've seen a lot of extra-base hits from him in the past week. He comes into tonight's action with a 52% hard hit rate in his last 10 games and a .453 wOBA and .300 ISO against southpaws in the 2018 season.
Jason Kipnis - 2B, at CIN ($4,200)
I like that Kipnis can give us middle-of-the-order exposure to one of the hottest offenses in baseball (implied run total of 5.5) going up against a rookie pitcher and a taxed bullpen. Kipnis has collected five hits over the past three nights and has a 42% hard hit rate over the past two weeks. He splits are just okay on the seaosn (.308 wOBA, .159 ISO) but those are brought down a bit by a terrible April and May start.
Justin Turner - 3B, vs SFG ($4,200)
It looks like Derek Holland's nice little (see also: surprising) run of positive starts has ended. He's allowed a 47% hard hit rate over his last two starts and the Dodgers have an implied run total of 4.7 tonight in Los Angeles. I think Turner is too cheap here, considering his prowess against southpaws and the lineup context. For the season, he's posted fantastic splits - .435 wOBA and a .231 ISO.
Manny Machado - SS, vs SFG ($4,200)
I like the idea of a Dodgers mini-stack here with Turner and Machado in back-to-back slots. They both bring high floors and power upside, having shown the ability to tee off on southpaws. Machado owns a .235 ISO split and has a 52% fly ball rate in the past 10 games. He's also relatively cheap considering the matchup and lineup context.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Curtis Granderson - OF, at KCR ($4,000)
In his 60+ innings of work this season, opposing starting pitcher Burch Smith has been lit up by left-handed batters to the tune of a .401 wOBA and a .595 slugging percentage. As such, that makes Granderson out of the leadoff spot an awesome value at this price, with definite power upside. For the season, he's rocking a .200 ISO split and enters the game with a 50% hard hit rate over the past week.
Ronald Acuna - OF, vs MIA ($5,700)
This kid is something, huh? He's on an unreal heater right now and I'm not going to quit him - especially in tournaments - until he cools off. Besides, the price isn't even that steep, as we're lucky his price was set before he went off for two more home runs last night. Anyway, the matchup is a good one and he's over a .400 wOBA and close to a .300 ISO split. The hard hit rate in the past two weeks sits at 55% as well.
