RADIO
To me, one of the fun “assignments” for a fantasy football analyst is regularly providing advice on trade offers. I manage well over a dozen of my own teams, but I am not a frequent trader. I trade on as “as needed” basis, which means it is time to start pursuing deals when I have a clear need to fill on my roster or perceive a certain position needs an upgrade.
Admittedly, I am not the type of fantasy player to trade away someone just because he is performing well, thinking that I should “sell high” because of concerns that his level of play cannot be sustained. I would rather not mess with success and ride with the positive results. I will also not actively look to acquire a specific underperforming player who may rebound in the “buy low” vein if that player does not fit my roster needs. My trades usually have the specific goals of plugging roster holes or improving at certain positions, not moving or acquiring players without those intentions in mind.
Of course, not everyone shares my thought processes, and trading is one of the most enjoyable and compelling parts of the fantasy game. So when I am not making trades myself, it’s great to help others work through their potential deals. To have a better shot of completing the trades, there are some recommended approaches to follow and indicators to recognize. Once I decide I actually want to make a deal, I certainly pursue it very aggressively. I pick my spots. From the experience of making my own trades and advising on many others, I have come away with effective methods of increasing the chances of sealing deals. Usually in this space we provide fantasy player scouting reports, but I decided to pivot this week because of all the welcomed trade questions I am asked. We want to boost your odds of getting who and what you want, especially with bye weeks and injuries looming large. These aren’t all customary pieces of trade advice, yet are all important points to consider.
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You Must Part with Some Quality
If you can pull off a “robbery” and win a trade for sure, by all means go for it. I am not a fan of vetoes. If someone gets ripped off in a trade, let them learn their lesson. In the majority of instances, it is hard to get a deal done when you want significant quality in return, and are only offering lesser players.
@scotteTheKing 2 pt ppr I would like to offer K Pitts or M Gesicki & M Carter for N Chubb or CD Lamb. Is this a fair offer for a team that needs a RB & a TE? My RBs are C Patterson, E Mitchell,M Carter Z Moss & J Robinson. My WRs are S Diggs, J Meyers,Davante Adams,Antonio Brown
— Riz (@riz715) October 20, 2021
I included this tweet form riz715 not to put him in a negative light at all, yet to show how the approach can be altered. While he has taken the savvy step to identify the needs of his potential trade partner, he has focused mostly on those needs as the primary sales pitch of his possible offers. So he is only considering part of the proper structure. The perceived player values on both sides do not align.
If one wants to land a Nick Chubb, even while injured, or a CeeDee Lamb, you are not going to have strong chances of swaying the other side by offering much less in player value. Pitts and Gesicki will certainly merit consideration, but Michael Carter is not even in the top 40 in average PPR Fantasy Points Per Game at running back.
Many fantasy players want to keep their top players and deal away their less useful reserves. If you can pull it off, you will be saluted. However, the odds are very low on getting those types of trades done.
When making an offer, always put yourself on the other side of the offer, and consider if it is realistically something that would be accepted. Would you take the deal? On this trade, putting yourself on the other side would clearly illustrate that the offer is not acceptable, no matter how you try to spin it. In this situation, it would likely at least take one of the tight ends and possibly Cordarrelle Patterson to have any shot to land one of the desired players. Lamb is also not needed when you consider the WRs he has.
Be careful with the lowball offers
Any deal that involves a guy like Carter right now, who has upside but has not delivered on any of it yet, is very likely to be turned away in many instances. If you start out with a player like him as part of any offer, you may get a terse response or none at all if requesting quality starters in return. “Lowball offers” can be non-starters. You will likely have to explain that it was just an opening offer to start discussions if it is ignored or quickly shot down. If you don’t want a player because he is not useful right now, the person on the other side likely views that player similarly. If you do see a route to making a deal with a trade partner that can be exploited, though, you can still attempt the underwhelming offer. Just be ready to explain it away.
In addition to Carter, I see many offers involving Robert Woods in two for one scenarios where higher echelon players are being targeted. Woods is not a Top 25 Fantasy WR right now. He is not going to move a trade needle in many cases.
Become a salesman
If you truly believe your offer is a fair one, and includes Patterson instead of Carter, try to give a sales spin. Be informed and talk about how well Patterson has produced and how thin tight end is. Downplay the guy you are targeting and say you really don’t want to make the deal, but need to. Framing the trade with a realistic basis behind it can potentially sway the other side.Being unrealistic, such as trying to put a sales pitch behind Carter, will surely fall flat. Don’t attempt to cling to a sales angle that is simply not a solid one. “But he needs that,” is what I have heard often. Maybe you are talking yourself into that line of thinking, but the other side isn’t buying it.
Quantity doesn’t equal quality
I am always seeing two for one and three for one offers being floated out there, Very often, the team making the offer in those situations is putting together something that clearly favors their side. Stacking lesser players usually does not amount to making them equal with one higher quality guy. Sometimes these offers work, but the better structure that I usually find to be more successful is a two for two, where each team gets one upgrade and one downgrade while filling needs.
Read the signs
He has another offer on the table but he admits my offer’s better & is considering it: I’ve offered: Diontae + 1st rd pick next year for Zeke & his 3rd rd. He’ll finish near last & his 3rd rd pick will be a top 2-3 pick. If this gets me over the top, I’ll give a bottom of 1st rd.
— Kevin Lippert (@DadofReilly) October 20, 2021
Kevin has put together a sales pitch here on this offer, and the potential trade partner has told him he is “considering” it. That means, “I am not accepting but I'm open to a better offer”. When someone tells you they are considering your offer or have to “think about it”, that means thank you, but no. Come back with a better offer, or you may get a counter offer. Kevin then told me the other guy showed him the competing offer on his phone. That is just a way of clearly urging Kevin to come up with a better offer for him. When someone tells you they are entertaining other offers, they are trying to motivate you to increase the offer or even lessen the return you are asking for.
If someone wants to accept your offer, they will do so quickly, counter offer, or enter into detailed discussions with you. Hopefully Kevin was able to get something done here, as I always appreciate his questions on Twitter.
Who wins?
I will often get asked, which side wins a deal? That is only part of the picture, though. Team context matters. You not only want to win the trade, but as I indicated before, the goal should be to fill needs or make upgrades. Sometimes I see offers where the trade is a “wash”, where it is two or four similarly valued players at each position. Such trades don’t get much accomplished.
Excessive trading attempts
I do know a few Fantasy leaguers who are addicted to trading. They constantly make and complete offers, just because it is so much fun for them. At some point, you have to be somewhat satisfied with what you have assembled. If you trade too much, you truly will not be accomplishing the goal of improving your team.
That’s the deal
I have covered several perspectives here, but nothing in fantasy sports is absolute. These are guidelines to improving your chances of making trades, not hard and fast rules. Every trade offer and those who make or consider them are fully unique. So keep the questions coming, on Twitter, in our live chats , and on our SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio shows. I will always do my best to help you get it done.
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