8 Overvalued Players for Fantasy Football: Draft Avoids and Busts for 2026

May 27, 2026

Austin Swaim's overvalued players for 2026 fantasy football leagues. His fantasy football draft avoids and potential busts, including Christian McCaffrey, Drake London, Bucky Irving, and more.

It's May, and this is the article that most people don't want to write. The NFL Draft is in the rear view. Offseason optimism is in full swing. There are positive and negative cases for just about every player, but we're trying to look on the bright side. Not here.

The reality is that several top picks in this year's redrafts won't pan out. Injuries -- which can be somewhat predictable in some circumstances -- will happen. Seasons will quickly tank, leaving talented players not producing much by way of fantasy points. Coaching changes and scheme fits will work against guys. It happens every year. So, with that in mind, here are eight players I think might fail to return value at their average draft position (ADP).

ADP data comes from Sleeper's PPR, one-QB redraft format. RotoBaller's overall 2026 PPR rankings also serve as the industry standard.

Christian McCaffrey - RB, San Francisco 49ers

Sleeper ADP: 6.7 (RB3)

It's not exactly revolutionary news that Christian McCaffrey is really, really good at scoring fantasy football points. That's sort of baked into an RB3 projection after an RB2 season in total PPR points a year ago.

However, we have to set aside memories of past touchdowns and evaluate where McCaffrey, turning 30 in June, stands as a potential first-round fantasy pick right now. He's entering his third season as a pro following a season in which he touched the ball at least 400 times (including playoffs).

The following season after those two prior campaigns, McCaffrey's availability tanked. He managed just 66 total touches in three games during the 2020 season, and all but four games (and 65 touches) were wiped out of his 2024 season with his current club. "CMC" has never built his reputation on strength or size, so you can't possibly ignore the trend when he's now -- as we all are -- older than he's ever been.

Plus, from an on-field perspective, there are a few more questions about whether his situation will be quite as pristine even if he stays healthy. Will a new arrival, Mike Evans, eat into McCaffrey's 129 targets (24.5% share) from a year ago? Do the Niners absolve him of such a hefty workload with Jordan James or third-round rookie Kaelon Black?

Especially given that the Trent Williams holdout situation is still a little odd, is the offense just going to be as efficient as the NFL's 11th-ranked scoring offense was a year ago?

I think it's unfair to yourself to leap to forcing a selection of "CMC" because he's "CMC" and simply hoping his health holds up. We have previous data -- and a few other new concerns -- to suggest that a truly optimal use of a mid-first-round pick might be someone else.

Drake London - WR, Atlanta Falcons

Sleeper ADP: 14.1 (WR7)

Above anyone else on this list, putting Drake London here is not any sort of referendum on his own talent or ability. The Atlanta Falcons have a boatload of questions on offense entering 2026.

The first -- and most obvious -- question many will point to is Atlanta's quarterback competition between southpaws Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa. Of course, Penix is likely the preferred candidate and less of a concern when London has averaged 20.5 PPR points per game with him as the starter.

Tagovailoa, though, has supported just one top-20 fantasy wideout on that basis since the start of 2023, and it was Tyreek Hill in 2023. Tagovailoa winning the battle of former top-10 picks in camp would be one concern, and head coach Kevin Stefanski should absolutely be another.

Save a blistering finish for Amari Cooper in 2023, Stefanski has a dubious track record of producing top performers in fantasy football at the position.

Highest #FantasyFootball positional PPG finish by a wide receiver on a Kevin Stefanski team by year:

2025: WR67
2024: WR24
2023: WR17
2022: WR19
2021: WR41
2020: WR38

Drake London's current ADP: WR7

🤔

— Austin Swaim (@ASwaim3) May 15, 2026

Then, you get to concerns about London having less of a monopoly on touches in this offense at full strength. His 30.7% target share was fourth in the NFL. While Jahan Dotson and third-round pick Zachariah Branch aren't seen as elite secondary options, they're certainly another new variable in place of Darnell Mooney at Atlanta's WR2 spot.

Between the quarterback, the head coach, and added competition for looks, there isn't a single arrow pointing definitively in the direction of improvement for London entering this campaign.

Bucky Irving - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sleeper ADP: 31.6 (RB14)

From a late-second-round ADP a year ago, Bucky Irving (shoulder)'s 2025 season was a grave disappointment. Irving played just 10 games, realizing some of the predraft fears that sent the running back to the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. He was dynamic in a 17-game schedule in 2024, posting 1,514 scrimmage yards.

Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), he was second in yards per attempt after contact (3.93) among backs with at least 50 totes two years ago. In 2025? He was third-worst (2.62) in the same category, so touches shifted away from him.

Of note, Rachaad White's touches didn't exactly increase as you'd presume. Instead, it was Sean Tucker -- a third-year back still on the roster -- who saw a bump in early down and goal-line work. This offseason, the team replaced a departing White with Kenny Gainwell, who was ninth in yards per route run (1.44 YPRR) among RBs with at least 50 touches.

Gainwell could arguably be a more efficient one-for-one replacement for White, so while Irving will likely outproduce his 2025 effort if he stays healthy, there's a real chance this committee is jumbled by design to keep the former Oregon running back healthy.

Even here in May, he wasn't cleared for OTAs with a shoulder injury. Beyond that, Gainwell and Tucker sap valuable types of touches to a point where Irving really doesn't have a monopoly on any specific role, too.

Irving is going sooner than talented, more durable backs like Derrick Henry and Javonte Williams, who hold a better share of their efficient offenses -- of which Tampa Bay might struggle to remain after losing Mike Evans this offseason.

Drake Maye - QB, New England Patriots

Sleeper ADP: 46.2 (QB4)

Quarterback in fantasy football has almost become cyclical. The "late-round QB" was a league-winning strategy early in the 2010s. Drafting a rushing star became an urgency toward the start of the next decade. Now, we're sort of back to waiting -- if at all possible.

In 2026, there is a gaggle of quarterbacks who run about the same. 12 different quarterbacks posted between 50 and 85 rush attempts last year. 13 of them posted between 200 and 450 rushing yards for the season. 13 of them posted somewhere between two and five rushing touchdowns.

Personally, it feels like drafting Drake Maye is paying a premium at the top of that gaggle. While near the top of the leaderboard in 2025, Maye's totals aren't supremely special compared to the top-25 quarterbacks in major rushing categories.

It's crucial to note that, as the categories shift toward actions that produce fantasy points, Maye's totals were gradually less special despite his positional standing. Breaking down the math, that was 1.00 fantasy points per game (over 17 games) above "average" at the position. Is that really worth a fourth-round ADP when this year's QB16 in ADP (Jordan Love) is going in the 10th round?

There's also the concern about Maye's strength of schedule. He faced a bottom-12 team in fantasy points per game (FPPG) allowed to quarterbacks in nine games -- somehow excluding Las Vegas, Atlanta, and two games against Buffalo. A stiffer test starts right out the gate in Seattle as part of a more challenging 2026 schedule.

Adding A.J. Brown should help Maye's passing efficiency, but he needs rushing production to truly separate from the second tier of fantasy quarterbacks, and he'll have significantly fewer "smash" matchups than last season. He's a great player, yet I have no choice but to avoid him at ADP.

Davante Adams - WR, Los Angeles Rams

Sleeper ADP: 46.9 (WR19)

Your immediate thought of why Davante Adams is here was probably incorrect.

Touchdown regression is real, and Adams caught 14 on just 114 total targets. That feels unsustainable, right? Well, PFF's expected fantasy points model had him at 14.9 expected touchdowns (xTD) due to the location of those looks near the goal line. Entering 2026, Adams should still be productive in that area of the field.

I'm actually more afraid of everything else. Adams, 33, missed three games with a hamstring issue for the second consecutive year. While his quarterback, Matthew Stafford, 38, did deliver an MVP-level season of his own when last on the field, he's also got a combination of age and injury history that is a bit worrisome.

Sean McVay's offense is also clearly trending away from heavy Adams usage. L.A.'s usage of 13 personnel with three tight ends (30.5%) was over double the next-highest team in the NFL (14.7%). It just drafted Ohio State's Max Klare in the second round. The league is moving that way quickly.

In a "Super Bowl or bust" mode, the Rams would prefer to keep Adams as fresh as possible for the postseason. That doesn't help fantasy football managers. Other than a few multi-touchdown efforts, Adams might be a frustrating wideout to project so long as Puka Nacua is healthy.

Jameson Williams - WR, Detroit Lions

Sleeper ADP: 51.9 (WR23)

I just don't like this marriage of Drew Petzing and the Detroit Lions in the specific context of Jameson Williams' fantasy production.

Petzing's true offensive philosophy might be a little unknown, given that severe deficits in his last two years with the Cardinals produced pass rates of at least 59%, but there are three concerning trends beyond that for Jamo compared to his breakout 2024 season under Ben Johnson.

Arizona was fourth from the bottom in pre-snap motion rate (43.9%) a year ago, according to Sharp Football Analysis. The team also targeted wide receivers at the second-lowest rate in the NFL (45%), per nfelo, and doubled the league average in use of three tight-end sets.

Overall, Detroit's offense should be better under Petzing. He's great news for Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs, and they've filled offensive line holes with a veteran center (Cade Mays) and first-round tackle (Blake Miller). A rising tide may lift all boats, but Williams' creative touches seem at risk when he's already been holding off Isaac TeSlaa's brilliance in limited appearances.

An overarching principle, I believe, when looking at Williams' ADP is that this Detroit offense simply isn't "special" enough anymore to justify its WR2 (if that's not LaPorta) over WR1s in capable offenses like Jaylen Waddle, Terry McLaurin, and Carnell Tate.

Bhayshul Tuten - RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Sleeper ADP: 60.4 (RB23)

Entering 2025, the Jacksonville Jaguars had an ambiguous backfield situation. Some favored Bhayshul Tuten over Travis Etienne Jr., who had come off a down year, and Tank Bigsby, a talented runner with limited upside on third downs.

This year, the Tuten hive is back in full force with Etienne signing in New Orleans this past March. His competition will be Chris Rodriguez Jr. (acquired in free agency from the Commanders) and LeQuint Allen Jr., who specialized as the Jaguars' third-down back a year ago.

Identity issues are going to be the forefront of Tuten's inability to command this backfield again. Is he a better runner than Rodriguez, who was 12th in the NFL in yards after contact per attempt (3.46) among backs with 50-plus touches? It's a bit of a leap, and the 224-pound back also burrowed in for six touchdowns and, presumably, is the front-runner for goal-line work.

Will Tuten be the third-down back? His 3.1% target share last year meant a third consecutive football season below 10.0%, dating back to two seasons without much action as a receiver at Virginia Tech.

Allen was sixth in the league in pass blocking grade at PFF (80.0) and held a 14.0% target share in his last college season at Syracuse. I don't think it's a crazy assertion to believe Allen is just simply a better player in this one facet of the game.

Reasons for excitement are understandable when Tuten blazed a 4.32-second 40-yard dash at last year's combine and sporadically popped on limited touches last year, but similar to last year's Commanders, this seems like an ugly committee without a true leader.

I'm also not sure Jacksonville will see as many positive game scripts for its tailbacks after a bizarre offseason in which the team -- by most sources -- bombed its draft class and didn't replace All-Pro linebacker Devin Lloyd in free agency.

Dalton Kincaid - TE, Buffalo Bills

Sleeper ADP: 91.3 (TE9)

It's officially once again "healthy as he's ever been" season for Dalton Kincaid.

He’s as healthy as he’s ever been. It’s time for the Bills to stop babying Dalton Kincaid and free their former first-round pick from any practice or play restrictions in 2026.

Otherwise, he may never become what they drafted him to be. New for @Bills_SI https://t.co/2YrtAldZiK

— alex brasky (@alexbrasky) May 26, 2026

There might be believers out there, but I'm not one of them at the tight end position, which is significantly deeper entering the 2026 season. Beyond known stars like Trey McBride and Brock Bowers, Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren are set up in their respective offenses for mammoth usage.

Kyle Pitts Sr. and Harold Fannin Jr. will look to build on stellar 2025 seasons with new play-callers. Tucker Kraft and Sam LaPorta are primed to rebound from one-off injury problems. Realistically, what has changed for Kincaid to think he won't be the same efficient-but-frustrating option?

The proof is in the pudding for the former Utah collegiate star. He's missed nine games in the last two years and hasn't run more than 350 routes. That same report from Alex Brasky of Sports Illustrated notes that Kincaid has opted against surgery to fix an existing PCL problem.

In theory, these past two years were Kincaid's optimal window to produce as the Bills were starved of receiver talent. Now, Joe Brady has established a run-first offense (49.8% rate a year ago) after the team paid both Josh Allen and James Cook III. The team also added DJ Moore to be its WR1 in the offseason.

Allen's tendency to call his own number in the red zone (14 rushing scores) also means that Kincaid's 2025 fantasy production should be seen as highly unstable. He scored just twice from the red zone. Is the big man really going to score three 20-plus-yard touchdowns again?

The acquisition of Moore should be an indictment of all existing Buffalo pass-catchers. To me, it's a signal the team doesn't believe it can rely on his health, even as a talented player who will rotate with Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes and make an impact from part-time duties.

There are too many tight ends in this vicinity of ADP with legitimate top-5 scoring upside to pray Kincaid's role expands and optimally scales every facet of his efficiency, including big-play bursts for touchdowns through that process.

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