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Dak Prescott or Brock Purdy - who should I draft for fantasy football in 2025? Brandon's fantasy football ADP Duel and pick recommendations for which quarterback to draft.
In the strategic chess match of fantasy football, where every pick can reshape your season, mastering Average Draft Position (ADP) is a critical weapon for outmaneuvering the competition. When it comes to quarterbacks teetering at the end of a tier in rankings—those poised to break out and claim a coveted QB1 spot in 2025—the decision between two similarly ranked players becomes a high-stakes puzzle. This article, ADP Duel, dives into the art of navigating these tight ADP battles, offering insights into how to evaluate the potential of quarterbacks like Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy, who sit on the cusp of elite status. By decoding ADP trends and tier transitions, you can position yourself to snag a breakout star before the rest of the league catches on.
Quarterbacks at the end of a tier present a unique opportunity and challenge, as their ADP often reflects uncertainty rather than a lack of talent. Factors such as offensive scheme changes, improvements in the supporting cast, or even question marks, along with injury recovery timelines, can catapult players who are viewed as QB2 types during draft preparation into QB1 territory, making the decision to choose between them a pivotal moment in the draft. In this piece, I’ll dissect these variables with real-world examples as I dive into the analytics to present the pros and cons of each QB, highlighting how subtle differences can define fantasy success. Whether it’s a duel between a rising star and a seasoned pro, understanding the context behind their ADP is key to unlocking their QB1 potential and ultimately alleviating the stress that comes with making weekly roster decisions.
My ADP Duel will arm you with the tools to master these quarterback conundrums, along with others, turning uncertainty into calculated confidence. We’ll analyze specific matchups, leveraging ADP data, statistical projections, and trends in 2025 outlooks to guide your picks. By the end of this article, you’ll have a clear strategy for tackling those tense moments when two quarterbacks on the cusp of being drafted as QB1s are on the clock, ensuring you draft a potential league-winner rather than a benchwarmer. Get ready to sharpen your skills and transform ADP duels into draft-day triumphs as the 2025 season looms.
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Dak Prescott - QB, Dallas Cowboys
ADP: QB12, 95th Overall
Prescott is a fantasy football bargain at his current ADP, hovering around the 95th overall pick (QB11-QB13 range) in 2025 drafts, offering a mix of proven production and upside that’s like finding a gourmet taco truck in a desert of fast-food joints.
In 2024, despite a rollercoaster year with a season-ending hamstring injury after eight games, he still threw for 1,978 yards, 11 touchdowns. Still, he saw an increase in interceptions (eight in eight games played), averaging what should be looked at as a subpar 15.6 fantasy points per game, placing him deep into QB2 territory (QB23) as the Cowboys offense struggled mightily last year.
His 2023 campaign was a fantasy feast, with 4,516 yards, 36 touchdowns, and nine interceptions, netting him 20.7 points per game and a QB4 finish, fueled by 590 passing attempts (among the league leaders) and a CeeDee Lamb-led receiving corps that turned defenses into bewildered spectators.
With a revamped offensive line, a new weapon in George Pickens joining Lamb, and the newly extended Jake Ferguson, Prescott’s 2025 outlook screams rebound, making his mid-round ADP feel like snagging a steak dinner at a soup kitchen price—undervalued and ready to sizzle.
Sure, his injury history (missing nine games in 2024) might make some managers twitchier than a cat in a room full of rocking chairs, but Prescott’s 2023 durability (17 games played) and fantasy playoff pedigree show he’s a player to be reckoned with while on the field and healthy.
Compared to tier-end peers like Caleb Williams, who is coming off of a very shaky rookie year and now must adjust to a new system under first-year HC Ben Johnson, or Jared Goff, who could be a gamble after losing the perceived genius of Johnson and his innovative playcalling, Prescott’s 32-year-old legs, potential top-10 offensive line, and defense that projects to have Dallas involved in plenty of shootouts, shows a player that could easily outproduce his current ADP.
The Cowboys’ 2025 schedule features juicy home matchups against the Cardinals and Vikings, teams that could have the Cowboys on their heels and needing to play point for point to secure victories.
Prescott could be in store for a year that could push him to sling it 600+ times. Drafting him here is like betting on a cowboy who’s lassoed the league before—kick back, laugh at the skeptics, and watch Prescott ride to your fantasy championship!
Brock Purdy - QB, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: QB13, 96th Overall
Purdy, the San Francisco 49ers’ “Mr. Irrelevant” turned fantasy darling, is the classic non-sexy pick that turns into a steal at his current ADP, sitting around the 96th overall pick (QB12-QB14 range) in 2025 drafts, offering a blend of efficiency and upside that’s like finding a hidden treasure chest in a pile of garage sale junk.
In 2024, despite battling shoulder and back injuries, he threw for 3,864 yards, 20 touchdowns, but a career-high 12 interceptions across 15 games, averaging 18.7 fantasy points per game—good for QB12 overall when healthy.
His 2023 breakout season was a comedy of overachievement, with 4,280 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, racking up 19.3 points per game and a QB6 finish, all while turning a revolving door of injuries into a highlight reel with Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel Sr. as his comedic sidekicks.
With a retooled 2025 offense featuring the unheralded George Kittle, team dawg Jauan Jennings, and second-year Ricky Pearsall, all holding down the foot while Brandon Aiyuk recovers from his ACL injury, Purdy’s system-QB magic under Kyle Shanahan makes his mid-to-late-round ADP feel like snagging a Michelin-star chef at a potluck price—underrated and ready to cook.
Plenty of fantasy managers might scoff at his slender frame or label him a “game manager” with a straight face, but dismissing Purdy is like skipping dessert because the plate’s too pretty—pure silliness!
His 2023 stats included a league-leading 9.6 yards per attempt, and in 2024, he still posted a 65.9% completion rate, proving he’s more than a system puppet—think his 314-yard, four-TD romp against the Eagles in 2023.
Compared to tier-end rivals like Justin Herbert, who’s caught in a run-first offense and also must adjust to new weapons, or Justin Fields, who’s on his third team in three years and relies heavily on his legs to accumulate fantasy points, Purdy’s soft 2025 schedule (e.g., Cardinals twice) gives him a higher floor—witness his strong fantasy playoff finish last season providing 690 passing yards and five TDs over the final two games.
At 25, he’s younger than a fine wine and poised for 4,200+ yards if healthy, making this draft slot a laughable bargain—grab him, chuckle at the doubters, and watch “Mr. Irrelevant” march you to a fantasy throne!
Fantasy Football Verdict - Prescott vs. Purdy
For the fantasy football crowd that generally likes to wait on drafting their QB, this point in the draft presents a sweet spot for potential upside players who could push to find themselves scratching at cracking into the Top-5 at the position in FPPG.
The decision between Prescott and Purdy is about as razor-thin as you could imagine and is representative of how close they remain in ADP.
With Prescott, fantasy managers are looking for him to rebound to his 2023 form, in which he was included in the NFL MVP discussion throughout most of that season. Now, you add in the variables of his health, lack of a balanced running game, inclusion of a true big-play threat in Pickens, and a porous defense facing a difficult schedule, and all the ingredients are there for a return to fantasy glory.
By comparison, Purdy has been one of the more sturdy options in fantasy each of the last two years, finishing inside the Top-10 in FPPG, all while continuing to receive the proper respect for what he brings to the offense. The possible return to full strength of McCaffrey, question marks surrounding the validity of his weapons outside of Kittle, and a schedule in which the 49ers could consistently face positive game scripts may limit Purdy's opportunities to provide fantasy points, unlike Prescott.
Ultimately, that becomes the deciding factor for me in this ADP Duel. Coming off a career high 455 attempts in 2024, Purdy can't match the usage that Prescott will be afforded if healthy (590+ attempts in each of his last three healthy seasons).
At the end of the day, without a separator on the two players like rushing utility, give me the guy who will be tossing the ball around more.
Here we GOOOOOOOO, Dak Prescott, you are the winner of this ADP Duel!
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