Overvalued Fantasy Football Tight Ends to Avoid: 5 Potential ADP Busts (2025)

August 2, 2025

Justin's five overvalued fantasy football tight ends for 2025. His top potential overpriced TEs based on ADP, including Zach Ertz and more.

It can be tough to draft the right tight end in fantasy football. I mean, if you can get Brock Bowers, great! But once you get past the first five or six players in ADP, there are pros and cons for everyone.

Even a guy like Travis Kelce doesn't feel nearly as safe as he used to feel. You won't find his name below on the list of potential ADP disappointments at the position because Kelce should have one more good year left in him before he rides off into the sunset, but anything can happen!

Here are five tight ends who look unlikely to live up to their ADP this year. ADP data is taken from FantasyPros.

Mark Andrews - Baltimore Ravens

ADP: TE7

At the beginning of last season, Mark Andrews looked washed.

Honestly, "washed" might not even be the right word. He looked washed. He looked like a guy who needed to be removed from an NFL field immediately. Through the first four games of 2024, Andrews had six receptions for 65 yards, with two games where he didn't even have a single reception.

Things improved from there, and Andrews went on to set a new career-high mark in touchdown receptions, but his ability to find the end zone helped hide a very uncomfortable stat: his 39.6 receiving yards per game.

That was the worst mark for Andrews since his 2018 rookie campaign, and also was the first time since then that he finished with under 50 yards per game. That's despite quarterback Lamar Jackson throwing for the most yards of his NFL career.

So, let's get this straight: Jackson had arguably his best season, yet Andrews saw a pretty sizable drop in production. Yet, he's being drafted as the TE7 this season. I don't get it.

Isaiah Likely only had 11 fewer targets than Andrews and caught six touchdowns. Although Likely is recovering from a foot injury this offseason, the Ravens are going to have Likely involved heavily again this season when he's ready, and Andrews will be another year older. Why are we pricing Andrews as if he's got little competition for targets when the Ravens will have more mouths to feed in 2025 than they ever have in the Jackson era?

Execs, coaches, scouts rank NFL's top 10 tight ends for 2025:

6. Mark Andrews

8. Isaiah Likely👀https://t.co/88Zf0OJEmq

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 15, 2025

This fantasy pick has bust written all over it.

David Njoku - Cleveland Browns

ADP: TE9

After making his first Pro Bowl appearance in 2023, Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku saw his numbers drop last season as he was limited to just 11 games.

Despite missing time, Njoku's 97 targets were the second-most of his NFL career, and he almost finished second on the team in targets behind Jerry Jeudy. Give him one more game, and he likely would have gotten the five targets he needed to tie Elijah Moore.

Despite that, there are a number of reasons to be concerned about Njoku heading into 2025. He's being drafted as a top 10 tight end, but that's a risky move for fantasy managers.

Njoku is entering his ninth NFL season. In all that time, he's only crossed the 500-yard mark four times. Sure, three of those are in the last three seasons, signaling an increased level of production in recent years, but if we look at per-game numbers, he's averaged 50-plus yards per game just one time.

Cleveland also added some serious competition in the draft, taking BGSU tight end Harold Fannin Jr. in the third round. The FBS leader in receptions and receiving yards last year, Fannin, has work to do as a blocker, but should be a threat to Njoku's targets fairly quickly.

Then there's the mess at quarterback in Cleveland. Is 40-year-old Joe Flacco going to be the Browns' quarterback? Will one of the two rookies claim the job? Could Kenny Pickett actually wind up playing? None of those are particularly good options.

Tyler Warren - Indianapolis Colts

ADP: TE12

Tyler Warren might be the next great young tight end, but I think his price is being driven up due to the short memory that sports fans tend to have.

For years, the narrative around rookie tight ends was that they needed a lot of time to adjust to the rigors of the NFL, but Brock Bowers' success last year, coupled with Sam LaPorta's strong 2023 rookie campaign, has shifted that narrative a bit.

Bowers is a generational player, though, and LaPorta landed in basically the perfect spot for a rookie tight end. Warren isn't either of those things, so I'd be very hesitant to invest heavily in him in redraft.

Warren ended up in Indianapolis, where his path to targets isn't awful, but the quality of those targets likely will be. The starting quarterback for the Colts will be Daniel Jones, who has struggled throughout most of his career.

Jones hasn't proven he can support a top tight end. It's not a coincidence that Evan Engram had the two best seasons of his career as soon as he left New York.

Colts head coach Shane Steichen also barely utilized the tight end spot last year. The leader in receptions at the position was Kylen Granson with 14. Sure, a big part of that is the team had what might have been the worst tight end room in the league, but when your best tight end finishes seventh on the team in receptions, it's a major red flag.

Colston Loveland - Chicago Bears

ADP: TE13

Take everything I said above about not trusting a rookie tight end, and now add on that Colston Loveland has a much tougher path to targets than Warren. That's why I view this as an exponentially worse pick than Warren.

Warren slides in easily as the No. 1 tight end in Indianapolis. His issue is just that he might take time to adjust, and he landed on a team whose playcalling is a potential impediment.

But Loveland wound up on a Chicago team where he'll be in a weekly fight for targets. Former second-round pick Cole Kmet never lived up to expectations and took a clear step back in 2024, but he's not far removed from a 2023 season where he caught 73 passes for 719 yards and six touchdowns. Don't dismiss him.

Even if Loveland does easily clear Kmet for targets, he's still got to contend with a crowded wide receiver group comprised of D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and Olamide Zaccheaus. Those players will eat into his targets.

Oh, and Loveland is behind a bit right now because a shoulder injury kept him out of OTAs. He's finally practicing now that training camp is here, but every rep matters for a young tight end.

Day 5 of camp can be summed up into 2 words..

Colston Loveland.

— Ficky (@itsfickybaby) July 28, 2025

On the bright side, Loveland has been a standout in training camp so far, so that should be an encouraging sign. Not encouraging enough for me to draft him at his redraft ADP, but I feel good about the dynasty shares I have.

Zach Ertz - Washington Commanders

ADP: TE20

It was so great to see Zach Ertz have a bounce-back 2024 campaign after it appeared his career was nearing its conclusion, but it's just really hard for me to trust that he has enough left in the tank to justify being drafted ahead of players like Cade Otton, Mike Gesicki, Brenton Strange, Chig Okonkwo, or Dalton Schultz, all of whom have lower ADPs right now but are, in my opinion, better upside plays.

Ertz caught 66 passes for 654 yards and seven touchdowns last season. I don't want to diminish how impressive those numbers were, but when projecting forward for 2025, some additional context is needed.

Ertz will turn 35 years old in November. 2024 saw him finish with his most receptions and yards since 2021 and his most touchdowns since 2018. He's also only played a full season twice in the past five years.

Jayden Daniels top pass-catchers if Terry McLaurin really holds out:

-Maybe washed Deebo Samuel
-DPI demon Noah Brown
-Christian's brother Luke McCaffrey
-Recently unretired Michael Gallup
-4th round rookie Jaylin Lane
-34-year-old Zach Ertz
-Fake punt specialist Ben Sinnott

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 28, 2025

That's not the profile of someone you want in fantasy. He'll also theoretically have more competition for targets this year, as the Commanders added wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. in a trade with the 49ers, plus second-year tight end Ben Sinnott should make some strides forward this season.

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