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Craig Rondinone takes a look at four running backs who fantasy football managers should avoid in 2024. He analyzes why these RBs could be fantasy busts this season.
Alexander Mattison, Miles Sanders, A.J. Dillon, and Dameon Pierce were four running backs who did nobody any fantasy football favors in 2023. Which running backs will be the ones who give fantasy managers sleepless nights and ulcers in 2024?
While quarterbacks and wide receivers have become more important in fantasy football as the NFL continues to be a pass-first league, running backs still rule the roost in fantasy football. If you can stock your roster with three workhorse backs who remain injury-free for the year, chances are you are going to be hoisting a fantasy league championship trophy over your head at season’s end.
But because the running back position is so paramount to fantasy success, you better avoid the minefields out there when you have your drafts and auctions. Not all running backs are guaranteed to gallop for 1,000 yards. So, which running backs should fantasy managers avoid in 2024? Here is my take!
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
RB7, OVR 15
Williams burst onto the fantasy scene last season after the Rams finally cut bait with Cam Akers. The Notre Dame product sprinted for 1,144 rushing yards and scored 15 total touchdowns in just a dozen contests, making him one of the top five most valuable running backs in fantasy football last year.
Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay and an above-average offensive line turned Williams into someone who many fantasy pundits think is a first-round pick heading into August/September drafts. This is not what many expected when Williams was taken in the fifth round by the Rams in 2022.
He was projected to be a solid backup, not the next coming of Todd Gurley in his prime. So is Williams someone NFL defensive coordinators will get a book on and figure out how to stop this season?
The Rams drafted Michigan standout Blake Corum in the third round, and football fans know what he can do when given a hefty workload. Rams runners in recent years have always been a bad game or two away from losing their starting spot and never getting it back.
If Williams slumps and Corum steps in and puts together a couple of 100-yard games, fantasy managers could be stuck with a high-round pick who does not even start on his own NFL team. Williams is one of the riskiest top-20 overall fantasy players out there in 2024.
Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins
RB 25, OVR 75
Just like quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, Mostert has had a career resurgence thanks to offensive wunderkind and future stand-up comedian Mike McDaniel. The longtime veteran led all running backs with 21 total touchdowns in 2023, which is amazing considering a) he only had 234 touches and b) he played in only 15 games.
Mostert has a checkered past when it comes to injuries, though. He has never met an ACL he could not tear or a bone he could not break. That has changed in Miami. Credit McDaniel. Credit the night life. Credit the sweltering sun, a different brand of vitamins, or more milk.
But Mostert is 32 years old, so he is a senior citizen for a running back. Plus, he is coming off back-to-back years where he has never had so many carries. His body is bound to break down in 2024. The laws of probability are not in Mostert's favor.
Miami has more running back depth than most NFL teams. RB1A De'Von Achane led the NFL in yards per carry in his rookie campaign, and the Dolphins drafted Jaylen Wright in the fourth round this April to add even more ammunition. There is no way Mostert will come close to duplicating his magical 2023 season again due to all these factors. Unfortunately, he might come nowhere near those career-high numbers.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
RB 28, OVR 86
Williams was a workhorse in 2023, totaling 264 touches as Denver’s top tailback. No other back had 110. But while Williams was given ample opportunities to post superb numbers, he did not do much with them.
774 rushing yards at a disappointing 3.6 YPC clip, 228 receiving yards with a paltry 4.9 YPC, five touchdowns, and no plays over 21 yards. Yet somehow Williams is still slated to be Denver’s No. 1 RB for 2024.
Williams had no help last season. Denver’s quarterback play was abysmal, so defenses could stack the box against Williams and limit his effectiveness. Besides WR Courtland Sutton, no skill-position player on the Broncos offense had an above-average season, and the trickle-down effect cost Williams immensely.
Denver’s top tailback is not the same explosive rusher he was when he started on the scene in 2021. Back then, Williams averaged 4.4 yards per carry and 7.3 yards per catch. After tearing his ACL in 2022, he has not regained the burst he once had. Just look at the lower averages on run and catches over the course of his career.
Pre-injury Javonte Williams was pretty, pretty, pretty good pic.twitter.com/SQ2yXEWlKr
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 5, 2024
If he does not jump out of the gate strong early on, Sean Payton will use shifty Jaleel McLaughlin and pass-catcher Samaje Perine out of the backfield more and more. While those two are not the between-the-tackles runners Williams is, it may not matter. I think Williams’ workload will take a seismic hit in 2024, and so will his fantasy value.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
RB36, OVR 107
You can go home again -- even if you were a lot more spry the first time than you are the second. That is what Elliott has proven after re-signing with Dallas in the offseason. The match was perfect. Dallas needed a RB after Tony Pollard took his talents to the Tennessee Titans, and Elliott needed work because the New England Patriots did not plan on bringing him back.
Elliott can still find the end zone when inside the 5-yard line, catch short passes out of the backfield, and pass protect when he is needed for blitz pickups. He is serviceable. All Elliott has to do is outperform Rico Dowdle, he of the 96 career carries and the name that sounds like a "Miami Vice" villain.
That does not sound difficult, but Elliott has lost a couple mph on his fastball. 2023 was the worst year of his career as he set personal lows with 642 rushing yards, a 3.5 YPC, and three rushing touchdowns. The chances of Dallas barbecue magically turning him into a game-breaking greyhound again seem slim.
Elliott probably gave himself the best opportunity to provide punch for fantasy managers by rejoining the Cowboys. He might not even make the roster on other teams with talented, crowded backfields. Would he be the RB4 in Green Bay? He definitely would be with Miami.
I think some Cowboys fans in your leagues will be higher on him than they should be. Avoid him unless you have him slotted as your RB4 or RB5.
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