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Matt's 2026 dynasty fantasy football rookie draft busts and overvalued picks to avoid. His fantasy football outlooks for five rookie busts to avoid in rookie drafts.
Now that the NFL Draft is over and the destinations for many of the incoming rookie class have been determined, it’s time for fantasy football managers to start preparing for their rookie drafts. This year, more than any other in recent memory, fantasy managers need to be informed heading into those draft rooms.
Outside the top five or six picks, anything is possible; it’s mostly about navigating the risks associated with each pick after the likes of Jeremiyah Love, Carnell Tate, Jadarian Price, Jordyn Tyson, Makai Lemon, and let’s throw Fernando Mendoza into the conversation as well.
Without further ado, here are the most overvalued rookie selections to avoid in rookie drafts in 2026. For a deeper dive into dynasty strategy, rankings, and trade tactics, check out our complete Dynasty Fantasy Football Guide.
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Denzel Boston, WR, Cleveland Browns
Rookie ADP 11, WR6
While Todd Monken is likely a good thing for Denzel Boston, the quarterback situation in Cleveland is far from settled. Looking at the current depth chart and listening to beat reporters, Deshaun Watson is the odds-on favorite to reclaim the starting job.
Watson last took a snap on October 20, 2024. After Watson, the Browns could once again turn to Shedeur Sanders or Dillon Gabriel, neither of whom helps Boston’s case in fantasy.
Shedeur Sanders with an incredibly preventable interception.
He is easily playing the best game of his career, but sometimes is still way too casual at times with the football! pic.twitter.com/iROdCL5cYr
— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) December 28, 2025
Maybe the most damning evidence here is that while many expected Boston to command first-round draft capital, the former Washington Huskie fell to the seventh pick of the second round. Cleveland had two opportunities to select Boston in the first round back in April; instead, it used the ninth pick on tackle Spencer Fano, and then at 24, the Browns grabbed receiver KC Concepcion.
That’s right, Boston wasn’t even the first receiver the Browns selected in the 2026 NFL Draft. Both Boston and Concepcion project as Week 1 starters alongside Jerry Jeudy, but make no mistake that Cedric Tillman will have a role, as will Harold Fannin Jr., who caught 72 of 107 targets a season ago, resulting in 731 receiving yards.
Fantasy general managers could view Boston in the same light as N'Keal Harry, Chase Claypool, or Jonathan Mingo. Receivers, who, like Boston, averaged less than 2.25 yards per route run, and were selected inside the first three rounds, but not exactly a ringing endorsement.
Boston is intriguing as his size and catch radius make him formidable down in the red zone, but what will his role be as the Browns attempt to make their way to the red zone? Concepcion projects as the slot receiver as Boston looks more like he’ll be on the outside, giving way to easier opportunities for his fellow rookie pass-catcher.
Eli Stowers, TE, Philadelphia Eagles
Rookie ADP 13, TE2
The question in Philadelphia is what is Howie Roseman cooking? Roseman has been one of the best executives in the business since he was promoted to general manager in 2010, with many of his trades and draft picks becoming the envy of the league.
While the depth chart is likely to see changes post June 1, the current setup is very appealing to Jalen Hurts, who not only has Saquon Barkley in the backfield but also has A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Makai Lemon, Dontayvion Wicks, and Marquise Brown, as well as Dallas Goedert and Eli Stowers at tight end.
Many look at Stowers as much more than just a tight end at the professional level. There has been talk that the Vanderbilt product could offer some relief should the Eagles move on from Brown before Week 1, as he has shown the ability to produce in college when split out wide.
Considering Stowers ' inability to remain engaged as a blocker, he most likely is best suited as a wide receiver in the NFL. If that designation were to follow and Brown were to depart this offseason, then Stowers becomes a much more intriguing prospect and the back end of the first round in rookie drafts.
While it is entirely possible, that is a lot of “what ifs” involved for Stowers to make good on his current ADP.
Mike Washington Jr., RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Rookie ADP 17, RB6
Throughout the offseason, we knew two things to be true. One, the Raiders wanted a second back to complement Ashton Jeanty and save some of the tread on his tires.
Second, Mike Washington Jr. was a talented running back who had an opportunity to step in and become a fantasy contributor on Day 1, depending on his landing spot. However, for Washington, being in Las Vegas may have been the worst landing spot for his fantasy outlook.
#Raiders HC Klint Kubiak on the backfield:
“Definitely want to have a two-man show there, guys that can share the load. It’s a long season. You don’t want to put all the carries and targets on one guy… it is important that [Ashton] Jeanty has a wingman — and it’s probably not… pic.twitter.com/nDO3zzVffp
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) February 26, 2026
On the plus side, Washington automatically leaps Dylan Laube, Roman Hemby, and Chris Collier on the Raiders' depth chart. On the other hand, Jeanty still had 266 rushing attempts and 73 targets in his rookie season. Vegas can talk all it wants about taking some of the load off Jeanty, but that is yet to be seen.
Even if Washington were to see any significant action, the Raiders offensive line is still among the worst in the NFL. Of the 975 yards Jeanty picked up on the ground, 634 (65%) came after contact (sixth most).
Washington’s value is tied directly to Jeanty's health. If something were to happen to Jeanty, Washington could be the steal of the draft. However, if Jeanty once again plays 17 games, Washington could be limited to less than 100 touches in each of his first two to three seasons.
Ty Simpson, QB, Los Angeles Rams
Rookie ADP 32, QB2
Much like the Mike Washington Jr. situation, Ty Simpson’s immediate value is capped with a current fantasy favorite already in tow. Unless something were to happen to the reigning NFL MVP, Simpson will be relegated to mop-up duty for the foreseeable future.
Los Angeles knew it needed a long-term solution for Matthew Stafford, who just turned 38 years old a few months back. That said, Stafford is coming off the second-best season of his 17-year career in terms of passing yardage (4,707), and his 46 passing touchdowns were five more than his previous best set in 2021 and 2011.
Simpson will have every opportunity to learn from Stafford, as he has a good arm, but at times, his accuracy and ball placement were questionable. Simpson can’t make throws on the run, as he is more of a traditional pocket passer who often hangs onto the ball for far too long, which also limits his upside in fantasy football.
For Simpson, if he does get an opportunity in a few years, who is he going to throw to? Davante Adams is 33 years old and will turn 34 before the season ends. Puka Nacua has already been talking about retirement despite turning 25 at the end of May. After those two, the Rams’ depth chart gets real thin real quick, with Jordan Whittington, Konata Mumpfield, and CJ Daniels as the next men up.
Germie Bernard, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Rookie ADP 15, WR8
First, the good news. Aaron Rodgers is returning for a 22nd season, and his second season with the Pittsburgh Steelers. To be honest, I’m not sure the return of Rodgers helps any of the pass-catchers on the Steelers roster.
When looking at where the Steelers ranked under Rodgers, Pittsburgh ranked 23rd in yards per play (5.9), 26th in success rate (42.9%), and 26th in explosive play rate (11.4%) per dropback.
Rodgers has more weapons at his disposal this season as Michael Pittman Jr. and Germie Bernard are set to join DK Metcalf. Still, considering Rodgers ranked 39th in yards per attempt (6.67), there isn’t a lot of fantasy meat on the bone for the perceived third option in Bernard in this offense.
It's not just last year, either. Rodgers had similar numbers in 2024 when he also averaged 6.67 yards per pass, and his completion percentage over expectation ranked 31st.
Bernard has proved to be an excellent receiver against zone, where he has a knack for finding the soft spots in coverage, but he lacks several key traits that most top fantasy options possess. For one, Bernard lacks elite speed to challenge corners and struggles in creating separation at the top of his route stem.
There is also the fact that among his peers in the 2026 draft, Bernard ranked 21st in missed tackles forced. Some receivers can make a living without being efficient in one or possibly two categories, but being inefficient in all three is a red flag.
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