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Michael's 2025 fantasy football quarterback draft strategy. Should you pick a quarterback early in 2025 fantasy football drafts? Read the expert draft tips and analysis.
“Quarterback is deeper than ever.”
You are going to hear that this fantasy football draft season. You’ve been hearing it for years. And to a certain extent, it is true. You can wait as there is a big group of double-digit QBs after the elite options are off the board. You can double dip, but figuring out who to start each week may be a headache.
These QBs also go later because while they can provide a safe floor or upside, they likely do not provide both. And the upside simply is not nearly as high as the elite options, which is exactly why it pays to take a top-5 fantasy QB in 2025!
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Who are the Elite Fantasy Football QBs?
Before I tell you why you should pay up for a position, you need to know who makes up the group you are targeting. The elite QBs are Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow. I currently have them in that order, but you can arrange them however you like.
They all have a mix of two big qualities that we love for fantasy football: they run and/or have a multiyear track record of being a proven elite fantasy option. Luckily, all but Burrow checked off the first box. And all but Daniels checks off the second.
Allen has finished top two in total fantasy points in each of his last five seasons. He’s top two in fantasy PPG in all but one of those seasons when he was third. Jackson scored the most fantasy points ever last season and has proved to be one of the most dynamic QBs in fantasy football history.
Hurts is coming off a “down year” where he was the QB7 overall and QB6 in PPG. However, he was the QB3 in fantasy PPG after Week 15 (he was injured early in Week 16 and did not play again). Plus, he was top two in fantasy PPG in the two seasons prior.
Josh Allen is the 2024 NFL MVP!!!
🔹 3,731 pass yards
🔹 28 pass TDs
🔹 531 rush yards
🔹 12 rush TDs
🔹 379.04 fantasy points
🔹 Scored the most fantasy points in a game by a QB pic.twitter.com/q1UgqG1K7W— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) February 7, 2025
Daniels only has one year under his belt but he did just finish fifth in total points and fourth in PPG (through 17 weeks) at the QB position. He has shown to be elite as a runner, posting nearly 900 rushing yards and six touchdowns last year.
He got better as a passer as the year went on and could be situated even better in Year 2. Burrow may not run, but he has topped 4,400 passing yards and thrown at least 34 passing TDs in his last three healthy seasons. He’s been a top-4 fantasy QB in his last two healthy years.
Could Jayden Daniels be an ELITE fantasy QB in Year 2? 👀 (via Yahoo Fantasy Forecast)@MattHarmon_BYB | @andybehrens pic.twitter.com/qh8sORRMw9
— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) January 27, 2025
These QBs offer both a safe floor and an upside that is unmatched by very few others at the position. There may be QBs going after them who provide a similar safe floor or who bring a high ceiling. No other QB after these five possesses the combination of a high floor and immense upside.
Why You Should Pay Up for a Top-5 Fantasy Football QB
These QBs all averaged at least 22 fantasy PPG last season (if you throw away the game Hurts was injured in). The only other QB to do so was Baker Mayfield. Jared Goff was the only other QB to average 20 fantasy PPG.
Outside of these elite five, there were just six other QBs who even averaged 18 fantasy PPG. That means if you wait and even happen to correctly pick one of the next few QBs who will average 18 per game, you will still be starting four points, on average, behind the elite QBs. Four points for a QB in most leagues is equivalent to a passing touchdown.
That means if you have one of the elite QBs, on average you are starting up a free passing touchdown compared to the teams who do not. Throughout the season, that would equate to 17 passing touchdowns.
This is a huge leg up and that is before we even factor in the spike weeks. What I mean by that is a week where a player goes off and puts up a huge fantasy number. Last season, Jackson and Allen each topped 30 fantasy points four times. Daniels and Burrow did so three times. The only other QB to do so multiple times was Goff. Hurts only did so once in 2024, but we have seen many spike weeks from him in the past.
Outside of the elite QBs, here are the others who topped 30 fantasy points in a game last season: Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins, Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Lock, and Brock Purdy. There is a good chance that many of those occurred on fantasy managers' benches. And you know they likely chased the points and got held holding the bag the next week.
The entire point of formulating strategies in fantasy football is to find advantages you can have over other managers. Taking one of the top-5 QBs not only gives you such an advantage on a week-to-week basis but those big weeks where they go off greatly increase your odds of winning that week.
QB may be a deep position with a lot of fallback options. I would argue there is a tier after the elites that has double-digit names in it. But if all of those QBs are the same, you are not getting an advantage. Maybe you pick right and find the one who breaks out, but if not, you are starting behind the eight-ball at the position that typically scores the most fantasy points.
The wait-on QB strategy worked wonderfully when the gap between the high-end talent and the second tier was closer. Back before the elites could put up Peyton Manning-like numbers with their arm and Michael Vick-type numbers with their legs. These elite hybrids are not just the best fantasy QBs in today's game, but they are some of the best fantasy QBs in the history of the NFL. Maybe the best of all time when it comes to Allen and Jackson.
The advantage used to be in waiting. Spending less draft capital on the position and getting similar fantasy production. Those days are gone, though. The gap between the high-end QBs and the rest is only getting larger each year. Strategies have to grow and adapt as the player pool and fantasy landscape change. We have seen that happen at the QB position in recent years and it is time for strategies to follow suit.
The only way to truly separate yourself in this position is to nab one of the elite five.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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