RADIO
The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
There has been a rise in zone coverages across the league, with 23 teams using zone defense over 65 percent of the time. Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense.
Based on the Week 2 matchups, we'll use various tools from PlayerProfiler, FantasyPoints, and more to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers. With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
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Favorable WR/CB Matchup Chart
Readers have asked for a WR/CB Matchup Chart. While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some of the inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat would be the limited data since we're using the Week 1 metrics, and matchup ratings might be skewed if a player struggled or succeeded in the first week, given the small sample. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.
Below we'll see the most favorable WR/CB matchups for Week 2. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver and green means favorable or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric.
Unfavorable WR/CB Matchup Chart
Since WR/CB matchups tend to be nuanced and complex, we'll sometimes see a receiver and cornerback listed more than once on a given chart. The visual below shows the unfavorable Week 2 WR/CB matchups.
Again, the sample is small, and it doesn't mean to fade Marvin Harrison Jr. and others. However, the matchup score looks poor because of his Week 1 struggles.
Fantasy Points Allowed to Receivers in the Slot vs. Wide
We know some receivers stay on the outside, in the slot, or a mixture of both. With that, we'll provide the team-level fantasy points allowed to receivers in the slot and out wide from Week 1 in a scatter plot. That should give us context for receivers that may primarily play in the slot or out wide for how the team general defends the position since receivers and corners aren't isolated.
Notable receivers who ran tons of slot routes include Jayden Reed, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Demario Douglas, Wan'Dale Robinson, Devaughn Vele, Luke McCaffrey, Khalil Shakir, Greg Dortch, DeVonta Smith, Cooper Kupp, and Stefon Diggs.
WR/CB Matchup Upgrades
The Browns Receivers Facing the Jaguars
Week 2 will indicate if the Jaguars defensive backs struggled or faced several high-end pass-catching options from the Dolphins. The Jaguars had some of the worst safety coverage, with Antonio Johnson ranking 167th and Andre Cisco at 177th out of 179 qualified defensive backs with 10 or more cover snaps.
We have similar brutal PFF Coverage Grades for Darnell Savage (No. 150), Jarrian Jones (No. 132), and Ronald Darby (No. 115). Savage plays mostly in the slot, covering slot routes 67 percent of the time, with Darby and Montaric Brown playing mostly on the outside. Brown only played eight coverage snaps in Week 1 and allowed two targets and receptions for 23 receiving yards.
Theoretically, Elijah Moore should take advantage of their primary slot corner in Savage since he allows the third-most fantasy points per route run and fourth-highest targets per route run rate at 28.8 percent. Amari Cooper is a high-end target earner who should have an equally favorable matchup against Brown.
Darby played well with the Ravens last year, with a 72.9 PFF Coverage Grade (No. 45), and primarily plays left cornerback. However, it's worth noting that the Browns moved Cooper and Jerry Jeudy around the formation.
Unfortunately, the challenge with the Browns involves Deshaun Watson having the fourth-worst off-target rate at 24.4 percent and ranking 20th in Completions Over Expected (-3.2 percent). It was a mixed bag for Watson in 2023, with a -0.3% Completion Over Expected (CPOE), ranking 31st.
When pressured, Watson performed poorly last season, with a -4.5 percent CPOE (No. 17) and 2.17 adjusted yards per attempt (No. 32). In Week 1, the Jaguars ranked middle of the pack with a pressure rate of 33.8 percent, so it might bode well for Watson and the Browns receivers to face a softer group of defensive backs.
Malik Nabers' Breakout Game Incoming and the Giants Receivers
As we mentioned in last week's WR/CB matchup article, the Commanders defensive backs have been a favorable matchup for opposing receivers. Chris Godwin feasted on Mike Sainristil, the second-round rookie out of Michigan in the slot, catching all three targets for 37 receiving yards and one score.
Sainristil projects to cover Wan'Dale Robinson, who garnered the fourth-highest target share (53.3 percent) on third and fourth downs. Daniel Jones targeted Robinson in his first read for a team-high 36.4 percent of his targets. If Jones leans on Robinson again in Week 2, he should feast.
Meanwhile, Mike Evans caught four of five targets for 37 receiving yards and two scores against Benjamin St-Juste, who projects to cover Malik Nabers. Expect Jones to have a much higher average target depth (4.6) in Week 2, leaning on Nabers. While it might be a breakout game for Nabers since it's hard to trust Jones, the matchup is juicy for Nabers and Robinson.
Deep-League Plays
Adonai Mitchell and Alec Pierce Against the Packers
Alec Pierce made the big splash play, with the 60-yard touchdown reception in Week 1. However, rookie Adonai Mitchell had the second-highest first-read target share on the Colts at 27.8 percent behind Michael Pittman Jr. (38.9 percent). Meanwhile, Pierce was third on the Colts, with a 16.7 percent first-read target share.
That matters because research shows that when teams use run-pass options, the quarterbacks tend to target their first reads. That's evident in Pittman garnering the eighth-highest first-read target share with run-pass options with Shane Steichen as the offensive coordinator.
While we don't envision Mitchell taking over as the primary first-read target over Pittman, the matchup is juicy. The Eagles' top two receivers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, feasted on the Packers defensive backs. Brown burned Jaire Alexander, who used to post high-end coverage metrics, but Brown is an elite receiver. Though we probably weren't benching Pittman, Alexander projects to cover him.
In Week 1, the Colts rotated Pierce (33.3 percent) and Mitchell (36.8 percent) in the slot, with both being bigger and athletic receivers primed to take advantage of Keisean Nixon and the Packers defensive backs.
The only piece of trepidation might involve the Packers struggling to move the ball on offense, causing the Colts' passing volume to remain low if they're playing from ahead. Mitchell and Pierce might be more of a DFS or deep-league play, but don't be surprised if one or both explodes.
WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Be Careful With the Titans Facing the Jets
The 49ers had a downgraded matchup in Week 1 facing the Jets. Though Jordan Mason ran all over the Jets, the 49ers receivers didn't pop as expected. Their most efficient receiver was Jauan Jennings, who caught all five targets for 64 receiving yards. Unsurprisingly, Sauce Gardner, Michael Carter II, and D.J. Reed shut down Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel Sr.
Now, the Jets face Will Levis, who had the second-lowest adjusted yards per attempt at 0.97, ahead of Bo Nix (0.95) in Week 1. That's drastically different from Brock Purdy's 7.26 adjusted yards per attempt (No. 8) in Week 1, though the Bears have a better defensive group and cornerbacks than one expects. That's evident in the Bears ranking second in PFF Coverage Grade as a team.
Until Levis proves he can be an average passer, it's a downgrade to Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins. We can give Hopkins a pass since he was dealing with a knee injury, and Ridley somewhat since it's Week 1 on a new team.
That's especially true since Hopkins had an awful 4 percent first-read target share in Week 1 compared to Ridley's team-high 28 percent and Tyler Boyd at 20 percent.
It's not a high-probability option, but keep tabs on Carter's health since he aggravated an ankle injury in Week 1. As the Jets' primary slot corner, Boyd may give us a Jennings-type outcome of five receptions for 60 receiving yards if Carter misses or isn't playing at full health.
Greg Dortch vs. Slot Corner
Week 1 was the week of the slot receivers, with Wan'Dale Robinson and Greg Dortch garnering a high target share on third/fourth downs and first reads. Dortch led the team in first-read target share at 28.6 percent (No. 30), ahead of Trey McBride at 23.8 percent (No. 43) and Marvin Harrison Jr. at a lowly 14.3 percent.
It could be the game plan after watching the film when Kyler Murray looked to pass the ball quickly, though it doesn't show up in his average time to throw.
On paper, the matchup for Dortch against the Rams' primary slot cornerback, Quentin Lake, doesn't look favorable, with the 24th-ranked PFF Coverage Grade in Week 1. That's partly due to Amon-Ra St. Brown struggling, catching three of six targets for 13 receiving yards, plus Jameson Williams making splash plays.
In Week 1, the Rams played man coverage or double-covered St. Brown on 32.1 percent of his routes. That's slightly higher than the man and double coverage rate of 28.6 percent on Williams and 25 percent against Sam LaPorta.
If the Cardinals' game plan continues to be passing the ball quickly and Dortch and McBride are the first reads most often, Dortch might be a deep-league volume option contrary to the matchup. However, Dortch remains a WR3 at best in PPR leagues.
The Jaguars Receivers Facing the Browns
For Week 2, the most unfavorable matchups seem to be for Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas Jr. That's mostly because Greg Newsome ranked 12th in PFF Coverage Grade and Denzel Ward at 31st in Week 1. Though the Browns struggled on offense, they kept CeeDee Lamb in check, as seen below.
Newsome projects to cover Kirk most of the time in the slot, with Ward facing Thomas, though we know the rookie can explode and make big plays. Trevor Lawrence struggles against pressure, with a 3.92 adjusted yards per attempt in 2023, ranking 18th out of 76 qualified quarterbacks.
Regardless, it's hard to sit Thomas, being the 13th-most efficient receiver in fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) in Week 1. That's especially true considering Lawrence looked toward Thomas, Evan Engram, and Kirk 25 percent of the time on first reads, indicating these three pass-catchers remain his top options.
Matchup to Watch: DK Metcalf Against Christian Gonzalez
In the past, the Patriots' defense has been a productive real-life and fantasy unit. In their first season without Bill Belichick, the second-year corner in Gonzalez looks like the team's shadow corner to avoid. In Week 1, Metcalf faced Pat Surtain II, one of the few shadow corners, where he caught three of four targets for 29 receiving yards.
Unfortunately, Metcalf projects to be shadowed by Gonzalez, and a Patriots defensive backs unit ranking seventh in PFF Coverage Grades as a team. Against the Broncos, we saw the offensive line become an issue for the Seahawks.
That's evident in the Seahawks ranking 21st in adjusted yards before contact and 19th in passing grade. It doesn't help that George Fant left the game with an injury against the Broncos, and the Seahawks graded out as the 22nd-best team in PFF Pass Blocking in Week 1.
Temper expectations with Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Week 2 against the Patriots because it might be more of the same as Week 1.
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