RADIO
Coming off my worst week of the season, getting only five of the top-10 defenses right, I spent a lot of Monday thinking about what I had missed. How did New England fail against Houston? What did the Lions do to get into the top-10 against a strong Minnesota offense? As I was racking my brain, it occurred to me that defense is a position just like any other on our fantasy team, and it's time we treat it like one, which, in this case, meant one main realization: trust the underlying metrics.
When a receiver like DK Metcalf has a tough game or two, you see tons of articles talking about his snap rate or target share or routes run. We continuously call out the metrics which suggest that Metcalf is a good player who is getting opportunities but simply hasn't been hitting on them. We feel confident that the breakout game is coming. Yet, when a good defense has a bad game, we think, "Well, I guess they're not that good." This is why people wrote off Carolina after one bad game against Dallas, despite all the metrics suggesting they were still a strong unit. They finished inside the top-10 this past week.
Obviously, the key factor here is that we know which metrics to trust for receivers and running backs and have less of an idea of which ones to focus on for defense. Only, I feel pretty confident we're beginning to narrow that down. When I created my admittedly rudimentary BOD formula (Best Overall Defense), I looked at pressure rate and quarterback hurry rate as being more important than sacks. Yes, sacks lead to fantasy points, but they can also be flukey. If a team is consistently bringing lots of pressure, then there is a higher likelihood that they will register sacks or force mistakes. It's a theory that was backed up by Chargers coach Brandon Staley last week:
So, where do we go from here? Well, I'm going to work to not be so reactive with my rankings. If the metrics are telling me that a defense is good, I'm not going to turn away from them. I may move them down a few spots if a matchup is particularly tough, but I'm going to trust the pressure rate in the same way I would trust opportunity share for a running back. I'm going to trust the quarterback hurry rate or the turnover percentage the same way I'd trust the target share of a receiver. I may not always get the ceiling performance from that defense, but I think the consistency will be there at the end of the day, and I'll be rostering an impactful defense more often than not.
As a reminder, make sure to always check the link to my updated rankings as the week goes on. When we get injury news, like Jaire Alexander officially being out, or troubling weather information, I will update the rankings accordingly.
Editor's Note: Be sure to also read our other Week 6 waiver wire articles for even more in-depth waiver wire analysis on running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, kickers, recommended FAB waiver wire bids, and players to consider dropping.
Picking The Right Defenses To Pickup and Start
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below. However, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. Last season, NFL offenses gained 359 yards per game and scored 12,692 points or 24.8 points per game, which is the most in the Super Bowl era.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Week 6 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
New this year: BOD (Best Overall Defense) Rankings. This is my defensive rankings formula based on the stats that I think are most conducive to fantasy success which are ones that focus mainly on pressure rate but also on turnover rate since these are metrics that traditionally lead to the most consistent results and are also scheme-dependent, thus highlighting defensive schemes that are more fantasy-friendly. You can see the full updated leaderboard here but the basic formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (Pass Rush Win Rate) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
Divided by Games Played
BOD is designed to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Tier 1 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 6
This one is pretty simple: the Rams may not be as dominant as they have been in previous years, but they are a strong defensive unit going up against a Giants offense that figures to be without Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley. They also could still be without Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, and Kenny Golladay. Considering the Giants' offensive line is also banged up, I think this is likely a day where Aaron Donald feasts on Mike Glennon and whoever else he has around him.
I'm a cynical Bills fan who lived through all four Super Bowl losses, so I'm always waiting for the other shoe to drop. However, this team does look really good to start the year. Still, I actually think the Titans will be a bigger test fantasy-wise for this defense than the Chiefs. The Cover-2 scheme the Bills run allows them to take away the deep passes that Mahomes loves to throw. However, it has also historically made the Bills vulnerable against the run, which is exactly why Derrick Henry has run all over them in years past. There is some risk we see that again this year, but I just don't think you can sit the Bills defense with the way they are playing right now. They're the #1 defense overall in my rankings, so I'm going to trust the metrics.
The Cowboys unit is another top-10 unit by my metrics, showing a penchant for turnovers which helps to balance out their average pass rush. They get a boost this week because this New England team simply isn't that good and allows the 5th-most points to fantasy defenses. Their own defense crapped the bed in a prime spot against Davis Mills and the Texans, so I have absolutely no confidence they can stop Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. What that means is that Mac Jones is going to be playing from behind and throwing to try and keep his team in the game. That's not what this Patriots offense is designed to do. I expected the Cowboys' defense to cause a few turnovers and make life difficult for the Patriots' rookie quarterback.
I know the Geno Smith redemption story is nice, but color me skeptical. Similar to the Rams, this Steelers defense may not be as dominant as it has been in years past, but this is a strong unit that gets consistent pressure and will make life uncomfortable for Geno. The Steelers are 3rd in quarterback hurry rate and 5th in pressure rate. The Seahawks have had some issues on their offensive line that Russell Wilson was always able to mask, but those are going to come out in full force this weekend. With Chris Carson also banged up, I just don't think we're going to see anything close to the explosive Seattle offense we've been used to, and I expect the Steelers to rattle Geno into a handful of mistakes. Maybe even a defensive touchdown.
Tier 2 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 6
Perhaps Denver's strong start to the year was simply because of their easy opening season schedule; however, this is still a unit that has strong pressure rates and has not been allowing big plays or many points. If we're trusting the metrics, then I'm trusting a team that is top-10 in pressure rate, quarterback hurry rate, and yards allowed per play. I expected more from them last week against the Steelers, but the Pittsburgh quick-passing game really took away that opportunity. Good thing for the Broncos, the Raiders don't do anything like that. Derek Carr often holds onto the ball too long, and his offensive line has been allowing a lot of pressure in recent weeks. I think this could be a game where we see the Broncos' defense get back on track.
The Panthers have made a concerted effort to improve their secondary, signing Stephon Gilmore and trading for former first-rounder C.J. Henderson. That's important going up against Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and the Vikings passing attack. As I mentioned above, we need to begin to trust the metrics, and the Panthers remain an elite unit when it comes to quarterback hurries, pressure rate, and yards allowed. When we get towards the back-half of the top-10, we need to be OK with not playing for ceiling outcomes. I don't think Carolina's defense is going to put up a massive score against Minnesota, but this is a strong defensive unit that is going to get pressure on Kirk Cousins and prevent big plays. That should give them a chance to remain effective for you as your starting defense.
The Packers pass rush has come alive in recent weeks, which has improved their overall performance as a fantasy defense. They're still relatively average in terms of getting pressure on the quarterback, but even average is helpful when you're also 6th in the league in percent of offensive drives that end in a defensive turnover. Obviously, the big story for the Packer is that Jaire Alexander is out. However, I'm not sure it matters much this week. The Bears are not an offense that pushes the ball down the field, and they've exhibited no real scheme or vision specific to Justin Fields at quarterback. The Bears are also very generous to opposing fantasy defenses due to their poor offensive line, so I still think this is a solid spot for the Packers defense.
Tier 3 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 6
Minnesota comes in just inside the top-10 and not higher despite their recent production because I expect the Panthers to get Christian McCaffrey back on Sunday. While the Vikings' defense has been good and will likely be able to pressure Sam Darnold during the game, having to gameplan for McCaffrey in addition to the emergence of D.J. Moore and this passing attack is a problem. I don't think last week's implosion from Sam Darnold is a sign of things to come. The Eagles are always a solid defensive team and Darnold simply had a bad game. He gets his best weapon back on Sunday, who also happens to be his safety valve when pressure comes. I think that severely limits the upside of this Vikings defense, who will now be a safe but not overly strong option for this weekend.
I know, I know, the Chargers just got destroyed on the ground by the Browns, but here's the thing: I don't think the Ravens can do that. Yes, the Ravens have always been a strong running team, but a rushing attack led by Latavius Murray and Devonta Freeman is just not imposing. The Chargers are really weak up the gut because they, like the Bills, prevent big plays in the passing game. Their defensive scheme will not allow the deep shots that Lamar Jackson was hitting all Monday night. They are going to keep Lamar Jackson in the pocket and force him to take underneath passes or force the Ravens to beat them with their running backs. I just don't see that being this Baltimore team's identity, so I expect the Chargers to get back on track. Remember, this is a team that held the Chiefs to 17 points by doing the exact same thing. The Browns were just a terrible matchup for them. So, again, trust the metrics here on a defense that is top-10 in pressure rate, quarterback hurries, and turnover rate.
The Bengals are a solid defense, certainly a much better one than I had expected them to be coming into the year. However, they remain just about average in terms of pressure rate and quarterback hurry rate despite having a solid number of sacks. As a result, the metrics are telling me that they're a fine fantasy unit but perhaps nothing more. They get elevated slightly against a Lions offense that allows the 7th-most points to opposing defenses, but not too much. It's not an easy matchup, and it's not that strong of a defense.
The Colts had an up-and-down showing against the Ravens on Monday night, coming out strong in the first half before seeing Lamar Jackson simply dominate them in the second half and overtime. Luckily for the Colts, Davis Mills is nowhere close to that caliber of player. I know some people have the Colts higher, but if we're trusting the metrics, this is a defense that has really poor pressure rates and has gotten by on forcing turnovers, which is not nearly as sustainable. I stand by my belief that this is a better real-life defense than fantasy defense, but Houston also allows the 6th-most points to fantasy defenses, so that keeps the Colts just outside of the top-10 conversation as a fine but unspectacular unit in a plus matchup.
Let's test the theory of trusting the metrics. This is a really strong Browns defense that's 3rd in pressure rate, 4th in sacks, and 7th in yards allowed per play. They're also played a slew of really strong offenses. However, their issue is that they can be beat through the air, which is clearly a problem against Kyler Murray and his receivers. We're going to trust the process here and keep the Browns inside the top-10, trusting their pass rush to create enough points to help balance out the few big plays that will also likely occur.
The Bucs and Cardinals are two defenses that I like who are just outside the top-10 because of the matchup. The Bucs are outside the top-10 in my total rankings as well because their pass rush hasn't been there so far. They are below-average in pressure rate and quarterback hurry rate and now face a quarterback in Jalen Hurts who can cause problems with his legs. The Cardinals are one of the better fantasy units this year, but their one problem is that they rank 31st in yards allowed per rush. The only team that's worse than them is the Chargers. The Browns just gashed the Chargers on the ground this weekend, so I expect a similar type of game, which keeps the Cardinals out of the top-10. In fact, the Browns offense is 5th-best in the NFL in terms of points allowed to fantasy defenses, so this is not a unit I am going to attack.
Miami's defense ranks 29th by my metrics. Remember what we said about elevating bad defenses too high because of good matchups? Don't do it.
Tier 4 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 6
I like the Eagles and Ravens defenses still (even though Anthony Averett got exposed on Monday night). However, I'm not playing either in these matchups.
Tier 5 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 6
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