FAAB Waiver Wire Bidding - Week 6 Targets

October 13, 2021

Nick Mariano's fantasy football waiver wire FAAB bidding guide for Week 6 (2021) -- how many FAAB dollars (free agent acquisition budget) to spend on waivers.

Joining our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB). Week 5 produced several huge performances (shoutout to LAC-CLE) while also yielding some key injuries. Those with Saquon Barkley and Clyde Edwards-Helaire shouldn't be shy about shoring up their rosters here.

As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.

It's difficult to toe the line between appropriate action and overreaction, but following context-aware volume is typically the best strategy. Will you be an aggressor early, looking to score those league-winners as they emerge? Or do you hold onto more funds in 2021 given the enhanced uncertainty with player availability? Whatever your attitude, here's my median FAAB bid ranges and adds heading into Week 6.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks

Taylor Heinicke (QB, WAS) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%

16% rostered

Heinicke had a forgettable Week 5, completing less than half of his attempted passes (20-of-41) with zero TDs and two INTs. He did add 40 rushing yards, which is the type of output that brings me back to the well for a Week 6 home matchup against a Kansas City defense that is a bottom-three unit against opposing QBs.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%

15% rostered

Just a quick reminder that he may return from the IR in a cushy Week 6 spot against Jacksonville in London. I know he wasn’t inspiring and the WR corps is banged up, but the Jags’ defense is a great confidence-boosting unit. I would hope DeVante Parker would return alongside Tua, though.

Geno Smith (QB, SEA) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%

1% rostered

With Russell Wilson missing a month or so with a finger injury, Smith is now the man for Seattle. You may groan out of habit, but even emergency duty against a stout Rams D saw him tally 131 yards and a TD on 10-of-17 passing with 23 rush yards. He did have an interception to boot but Tyler Lockett tripping on himself absolves Smith in my mind. Geno won’t be a recommended start at Pittsburgh in Week 6 (Big Ben is 23% rostered and faces Seattle’s awful D, if you dare), but at least monitor the situation given his ability to run and Seattle’s elite WR duo elevating him.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs

Darrel Williams (RB, KC) - FAAB Bid: 30-40%

9% rostered

Williams was already a decent stash as Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran on thin ice with inconsistent play, but is now a must-add with CEH’s MCL sprain. Being the starter on the Chiefs is worth quite a bit and Williams wound up with 45 yards on eight touches as KC went into pass-happy catchup mode. Jerick McKinnon is a worthy add in PPR leagues but Williams is the primary back now.

Chiefs RB touches after the CEH injury last night:

Darrel Williams 5
Jerick McKinnon 1

Overall, Williams out-snapped McKinnon 37-27.

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 11, 2021

Devontae Booker (RB, NYG) - FAAB Bid: 25-35%

7% rostered

Saquon Barkley rolled his ankle and while he managed to escape with just a sprain...it's still a sprain. His absence preceded injuries to Daniel Jones and Kenny Golladay, which leaves the Giants' offense running on fumes. Opportunity is still important and Booker looked strong on both TDs – one rushing, one receiving – against Dallas. His versatility helps raise the floor since he isn't just a plodder and can work as a receiver as well.

Alex Collins (RB, SEA) - FAAB Bid: 8-12%

37% rostered

With Chris Carson out due to a neck injury, Collins paced the Seahawks with 15 carries (47 yards) and two catches for 25 yards on three targets. We saw DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer sprinkle in but Collins should be the lead back for Week 6’s dance with Pittsburgh should Carson miss another game. For now, Pete Carroll said it’s too early to tell on Carson’s status.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE) - FAAB Bid: 5-10%

7% rostered

Stevenson stepped in with 11 carries for 23 yards following Damien Harris’ chest/rib injury. The rookie had been a healthy scratch in favor of J.J. Taylor, but now Stevenson has a chance to lead this backfield while Brandon Bolden continues to handle James White’s vacated targets. Of course, Harris may be okay considering he originally returned after the first chest injury absence before being forced out for good in the fourth. Prepare for an absence and get Stevenson on the squad for now.

Khalil Herbert (RB, CHI) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%

19% rostered

Herbert split work with Damien Williams, recording 18 carries for 75 yards on an offense that isn’t ready to let Justin Fields shoulder the load with passing. Williams still outworked Herbert where it matters in the red zone, but 18 touches impresses all the same. 

Samaje Perine (RB, CIN) - FAAB Bid: 8-10%
Chris Evans (RB, CIN) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%

27% rostered

Joe Mixon went from week-to-week to day-to-day, to active on Sunday and logging 11 touches in a timeshare with Perine. However, it was Samaje who led with 15 touches and 83 yards and a touchdown compared to Mixon’s less effective 35 yards and a rush TD.

Unfortunately, Perine was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Monday afternoon and may be unavailable for Week 6. If Mixon isn’t back to 100% by then, we may see Chris Evans — who had two catches for 16 yards on Sunday — step into the timeshare split with Mixon against a vulnerable Detroit defense.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers

Kadarius Toney (WR, NYG) - FAAB Bid: 10-15%

17% rostered

Toney did a little bit of everything on Sunday. He broke OBJ’s franchise rookie record for receiving yards with 189, took a Wildcat snap for seven yards on a near-score, frequently shook coverage with quick feet and agile jukes, got ejected for throwing a punch, and was shuttled down the hallway on a cart with an apparent ankle injury following the game.

Did you get all of that? It’s okay if you didn’t, because the bottom line is that Toney displayed game-breaking talent in the open field and should have done enough to hold onto starting reps when Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton return. Kenny Golladay was also injured, as well as Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones, so there is opportunity all over the field. Whether Joe Judge disciplines Toney on his own for the punch remains to be seen. Regardless, you want this upside on your team.

Kadarius Toney: 93.3 receiving grade in Week 5

1st among all WRs 👀 pic.twitter.com/ZFTmI2M4Ct

— PFF (@PFF) October 11, 2021

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET) - FAAB Bid: 4-6%

3% rostered

St. Brown led all Lions receivers with 47 snaps, 31 routes run, eight targets, seven catches, and 65 receiving yards. The rookie was still largely off the field on two-wide sets following the injury to Quintez Cephus, but he was dynamic when the oft-deployed three-wide set came out. T.J. Hockenson was kept in check for another quiet day, his third in a row (buy low!), while St. Brown has seen eight looks in two straight games now. Make the add in PPR formats ahead of Week 6’s date with Cincinnati.

Marquez Callaway (WR, NO) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%

30% rostered

The Saints are on their bye in Week 6, but then Callaway will have a great chance at following up Sunday’s 85-yard, two-touchdown day with excellent matchups against Seattle and Tampa Bay. Deonte Harris left the game early with a hamstring injury after his own 72-yard TD while both Tre’Quan Smith and Michael Thomas work towards full health. If you can stash Callaway ahead of Weeks 7 and 8 then top-25 scores may await.

DeAndre Carter (WR, WAS) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%

0% rostered

Curtis Samuel left the game early and seemingly can’t shake his groin injury, which gave Carter a chance to work often en route to four catches and 62 yards plus another 11 rush yards. Heinicke wasn’t his sharpest, but Carter saw eight targets in all and totaled 58 snaps – second-most among WRs behind Terry McLaurin’s 70. If Samuel is rested while Dyami Brown (knee) and Cam Sims (hamstring) also can’t go in Week 6, then Carter may vie for double-digit looks against a porous KC secondary.

Others to consider:

Rondale Moore - 40% rostered - FAAB: 4-6%
Mecole Hardman - 43% rostered - FAAB: 3-5%
Tim Patrick - 31% rostered - FAAB: 3-5%
Van Jefferson - 10% rostered - FAAB: 3-4%
Josh Gordon - 38% rostered - FAAB: 3-4%
Hunter Renfrow - 45% rostered - FAAB: 3-4%
Randall Cobb - 16% rostered - FAAB: 2-3%
Kalif Raymond -3% rostered - FAAB: 1-2%
John Ross III - 1% rostered - FAAB: 1-2%
Preston Williams - 0% rostered - FAAB: 0-1%
Donovan Peoples-Jones - 1% rostered - FAAB: 0-1%
Jamal Agnew - 0% rostered - FAAB: 0-1%
Chris Moore - 0% rostered - FAAB: 0-1%

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends

Dan Arnold (TE, JAC) - FAAB Bid: 4-6%

4% rostered

Last week I said Arnold could reach 6-8 looks per game, but I didn’t expect him to get there by his second game with the Jags. It was Arnold’s eight targets on Sunday that led the team while 30 routes run trailed only Marvin Jones Jr.’s 33. James Robinson is the man on this offense but Arnold is now within reach of weekly top-12 finishes. If Jacob Hollister’s one target wasn’t the touchdown then we’d be rushing to the wire for Arnold. Get ahead of it.

Ricky Seals-Jones (TE, WAS) - FAAB Bid: 4-6%

2% rostered

Seals-Jones stepped right into the spotlight on Sunday, playing 82-of-83 snaps and running 42 routes – one shy of McLaurin’s 43. RSJ wound up being one of seven TEs to hit eight or more targets in Week 6 (MNF pending) and three of those looks were in the red zone. I cringed when Heinicke and RSJ couldn’t connect on them, leaving him with a 5-41-0 line overall, but it’s encouraging usage moving forward for their date with KC next week. I’m in with both feet.

Ricky Seals-Jones' Week 5 usage:

99% snaps
42 routes on 53 dropbacks
20% target share
3 red zone targets

— Frank Stampfl (@Roto_Frank) October 11, 2021

David Njoku (TE, CLE) - FAAB Bid: 2-3%

3% rostered

Njoku has always possessed incredible athleticism but has rarely gotten a consistent crack at showing it. Week 5 saw the light shine forth again, as he caught all seven targets for 149 yards, including a 71-yard score. While his 46 snaps were behind Austin Hooper’s 52, he ran 21 routes to Hooper’s 15 and Hooper had zero targets. How will this translate moving forward? Just another flash in the pan? I'm not holding my breath, but the bar at TE can be low.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams

Indianapolis is available in roughly half of Yahoo leagues and takes on the Texans in Week 6. If you think Davis Mills has rounded a corner then feel free to pivot!

Green Bay Packers Defense (at CHI) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%

25% rostered

The good news for the Pack is that the Bears offense has not found its identity yet with Justin Fields at command. The bad news is that Detroit and Las Vegas only combined for three sacks and one turnover in the Chicago’s last two games. Aaron Rodgers and the offense may put the Bears in such a hole that Fields is forced out of his comfort zone and into taking aggressive shots that yield turnovers and long drops.

Miami Dolphins Defense (at JAX) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%

15% rostered

Miami just got roasted by Tom Brady – just like the ol’ Brady-in-the-AFC-East days – but now they get to pick on the Jaguars in London. Arizona and Tennessee have scored defensive TDs off of Jacksonville in two of their past three weeks, with 11 turnovers in total on ‘21 for a friendly streaming option.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense (at DET) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%

9% rostered

We discussed how Amon-Ra St. Brown has a chance to step up with Cephus out, but overall it’s a bad direction for an already-depleted WR corps to slide. Detroit has two solid RBs and Hockenson, but Jared Goff has absorbed four sacks in each of their last two games, illustrating how Cincy has a chance to replicate its strong Week 3 performance (10 Pts allowed, four sacks, two INTs).

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