Week 1 Mirages Bound to Disappear

Andrew Ericksen identifies NFL players with impressive Week 1 performances that are outliers and could be mirages. These QB, RB, WR, and TE shouldn't be added or started based on one big game.

It’s easy to overreact to big performances in Week 1. We see a new set of breakout performers each fantasy season and all fantasy owners suffer from some extreme FOMO at the onset of the season, knowing that if they don’t act soon, they may miss out on one of those breakouts.

Below are eight players you shouldn’t be afraid to miss out on. A few of them may have had their best games of the season in Week 1, a “mirage” performance that doesn’t promise similar future production.

Others on the list will be too inconsistent to rely upon unless injuries on their teams open up more opportunities.

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Sammy Watkins (WR, KC)

Week 1 Stats: 7 catches, 82 yards, 1 TD

The Week 1 extraordinaire, you may remember him from such previous Week 1 explosions as last season, when he went for 198 yards and three touchdowns. He would only top 50 receiving yards three more times over the entirety of the 2019 season and didn’t score another touchdown all year.

Watkins is in a great situation in one of the league’s best offenses, catching passes from one of the leagues best quarterbacks. However, inconsistency and injuries have continuously plagued him since first entering the league in 2014. Don’t be fooled by his productive Week 1 in the same way many of us were last year.

Adrian Peterson (RB, DET)

Week 1 Stats: 14 carries, 93 yards; 3 catches, 21 yards

There is no doubt that Peterson was the standout amongst the three Lions running backs in Week 1. Kerryon Johnson gained just 14 yards on seven carries and didn’t earn a target in the passing game. D’Andre Swift scored the team’s only rushing touchdown, but had just three carries in the game that went for a total of eight yards. Swift caught three of his five targets for 15 yards, but of course had the most costly drop of the game for the Lions.

Swift led all Detroit running backs in snaps in the game with 34. Peterson was next with 24, followed by Johnson with 20. Johnson was the team’s starter in their first drive, but his ineffectiveness is what led to Peterson’s increased usage.

Swift suffered a leg injury during training camp and the team is rightfully likely to be cautious with his workload to start off the season. The fact that he still easily led the team in snaps at running back shows that he’ll be the team’s primary running back this year with the two veterans playing second and third fiddle. Peterson was great in Week 1, but he likely won’t come close to reaching this past weekend’s production again this year unless one of the other backs miss time.

Keelan Cole (WR, JAX)

Week 1 Stats: 5 catches, 47 yards, 1 TD

Cole was Gardner Minshew’s top receiving target in Week 1, leading the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards. He earned five targets in the game, one more than rookie Laviska Shenault Jr. and two more than DJ Chark Jr. Cole had his first fantasy breakout in late 2017, posting two straight 100-yard games in December and closing the year with 748 receiving yards. Unfortunately for Cole, over the past two years, he’s suited up for all 32 of the team’s game and come away with just 852 receiving yards and four touchdowns.

Cole took a backseat last year to Chark and Dede Westbrook, the latter of whom was a healthy inactive in Week 1. Chark will be the team’s No. 1 this year while Cole and Shenault battle for the No. 2 spot. Shenault is the more interesting of the two as he has more room for growth and the team also gave him two carries in Week 1, a sign of how involved he could be going forward.

Mitch Trubisky (QB, CHI)

Week 1 Stats: 20-for-36, 242 passing yards, 3 TD; 26 rushing yards

It was a tale of two halves for Trubisky in Week 1. In the first half, it seemed like only a matter of time before the team would bring in Nick Foles to relieve him. In the second half, he locked in and led the team to victory after trailing by 17. All three of his touchdown passes came in the fourth quarter.

It’s hard to say exactly how long or short Trubisky’s leash is with Foles looming, but a weak and shorthanded Lions Defense spared him at least one more week. He has another favorable matchup against the New York Giants in Week 2, so if you’re in a pinch in a Two-QB league, he’s a fine start, but otherwise, you should look elsewhere for long-term quarterback help.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, GB)

Week 1 Stats: 4 catches, 96 yards, 1 TD

A trending sleeper going into 2019, Valdes-Scantling wound up to be a significant disappointment. Despite playing in each of the team’s 16 games, including four without the team’s No. 1 receive Davante Adams, Valdes-Scantling caught just 26 passes for 452 yards and two touchdowns.

Aaron Rodgers looked more like his prime career-self than his past few years-self in Week 1, which is a great sign for all Packers receivers. However, we’re going to need to see a few more games like this from Valdes-Scantling to start buying in. Allen Lazard outperformed Valdes-Scantling in 2019, his first full NFL season, and he caught all four of his targets for 63 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Overall, Lazard is a better bet to find some fantasy stability. Valdes-Scantling should remain on waivers as long as both Adams and Lazard are healthy.

Danny Amendola (WR, DET)

Week 1 Stats: 5 catches, 81 yards

For as long as Kenny Golladay (hamstring) remains out, Amendola is a fine flyer as a WR3 or flex in deep leagues. However, with Golladay in the lineup, he can’t be trusted. Even as the team was without their No. 1 receiver in Week 1, Amendola was still third in targets amongst wide receivers on the team. Rookie Quintez Cephus led the way with ten targets, followed by Marvin Jones Jr. with eight, then Amendola with seven.

John Brown (WR, BUF)

Week 1 Stats: 6 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD

This will probably be the most surprising name on the list for readers. Brown had a fantastic debut season in Buffalo last year, but with Stefon Diggs in town, it’s going to be extremely hard for Brown to find consistency. Brown led the Bills in targets in Week 1 with 10 but Diggs – who had nine targets – led the team in receptions (8) and receiving yards (86).

The Bills possessed the ball for 41 minutes in Week 1 and quarterback Josh Allen threw the ball 46 times in the game. He topped 40 passing attempts just once all of last year. The team also surprisingly only handed the ball off 18 times in the game. Brown will be a fantastic asset for the Bills as a No. 2 this year, but fantasy owners will find it hard to trust him for consistent production like he provided last year.

Willie Snead IV (WR, BAL)

Week 1 Stats: 4 catches, 64 yards, 1 TD

Snead is entering his third year with the Baltimore Ravens. Last year, he played all 16 games, but caught just 31 passes on 46 targets for 339 yards. He was a common red zone target for Lamar Jackson as he reeled in five touchdowns in 2019, but the rest of his stat-line left for a lot to be desired.

The Ravens’ receiving corps this year looks a lot like it did last year. Marquise Brown should lead the team in targets at receiver with Miles Boykin behind him. Rookie Devin Duvernay should also be part of the mix as well, while tight end Mark Andrews will regularly see a good amount of targets and be one of the team’s top red zone threats. Snead should be left on waivers in all leagues at this point.

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