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With the busy schedule surrounding Thanksgiving week, I took a break from college football betting for the final week of the season. However, we're back for conference championship weekend and this should really be an exciting week of football.
- Week 13 Picks: 1-2 (33%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 20-21 (49%)
I'm here to breakdown each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even money lines for this week in the NCAA. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.
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Oregon at Utah (-6.5)
O/U: 46 **This game is on Friday, Dec. 6 at 8pm EST**
The Ducks got back to their winning ways last week, taking down Oregon State. However, it wasn’t a great tuneup heading into the Pac-12 Championship against Utah. Oregon will surely have their hands full, but don’t give up on them holding their own. Justin Herbert is a stud, make no mistake, but the Ducks run game has been as steady as it comes, rushing for at least 135 yards and one touchdown in each of their last eight games.
Utah houses one of the top defenses in the country in both scoring (12.3 points per game) and total defense (253.2 yards per game). However, their offense is no slouch, averaging over 475 ypg and 43 ppg in their last three games. Quarterback Tyler Huntley has proven to be one of the most efficient passers in the Pac-12, and his backfield counterpart, Zack Moss, is the league’s leading rusher. This Utes program is budding and a spot in the conference championship is a huge opportunity.
This total opened up at 50 and has already dropped down a few points, mainly because the public sees Utah’s defensive prowess. Both offenses have plenty of firepower, but Utah’s consistency gives them a bit of an edge. The Utes have been insanely hot of late, and while Oregon has averaged just 29 ppg over their last three, look for them to be able to find pay dirt enough times to make this total the play.
Pick: Over 46
UAB at FAU (-7.5)
O/U: 49.5
UAB defied some odds in their road to the Conference USA championship game, having to win all three of their remaining games and get some help. Well, it happened and here they are for their second consecutive championship game appearance. Tyler Johnston isn’t exactly a program defining player, but he is able to make plays when called upon. Behind him, there are three backs who have rushed for over 400 yards apiece, so the pressure isn’t all on Johnston. On the other side of the field, the Blazer defense has had some struggles of late, but they worked them out in last week’s season-defining win, registering four sacks in the final quarter of their win over North Texas.
The fighting Lane Kiffin’s have won seven of their last eight, including last week’s drubbing over FIU, 37-7. Quarterback Chris Robison has passed for over 3,300 yards with 22 touchdowns this year, while as a team, they’ve rushed for over 2,200 yards along with 27 touchdowns; talk about balance. Defensively, the Owls give up just 23 ppg, and their consistency is impressive. The run defense allows just 3.9 yards per carry, while the unit also leads the country with 19 interceptions.
FAU is 6-2 against the spread in C-USA games, while UAB is 5-3 ATS in league games. Although, with the news that Kiffin is likely on his way out of Boca Raton, I think FAU stumbles a bit, giving UAB a shot to come in and make a statement.
Pick: UAB +7.5
Virginia at Clemson (-28.5)
O/U: 55.5
The Hoos are winners of five of their last six, but, rightfully so, no one is giving them a shot in this ACC Championship game. They’ll definitely need Bryce Perkins to be on the top of his game. Yes, his 8/3 TD/Int in their last six is decent, but it’s the 496 yards and nine rushing touchdowns in that span that make him an impressive playmaker. They’ll need halfback Wayne Taulapapa along with Hasise Dubois and Joe Reed to carry their weight on offense. As a defense, they’ve recorded 43 sacks, which puts them in the nation's top 10, so they’ll need to get to Trevor Lawrence early and very often.
I'm one to agree with Dabo Swinney in that Clemson has been underrated from the beginning of the season. However, he also admitted they haven't played anyone for them to deserve top team respect. Lawrence has been spot on after his rough first half, and he hasn't thrown an interception in the last five games. Travis Etienne has been an electric runner and his 16 touchdowns are tied for 9th in the country. Defensively, the Tigers have allowed just 5.3 ppg over their last three, but that's against South Carolina, Wake Forest, and NC State.
Clemson's schedule isn't great, and truthfully neither is UVA's, but 28.5 is a lot of points to give in any conference championship game, let alone a Power 5 one. Both sides are playing their best football right now, and while Clemson is clearly a better brand, my faith lies in Virginia to cover the points.
Pick: Virginia +28.5
