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RotoBaller Standard Mock Draft Analysis - Rounds 4-6


You're probably getting ready for your league's fantasy draft right now. What better way to prepare than by seeing what the experts here at Rotoballer did in their own standard league mock draft! Over the last couple of weeks, we've dug into each of these players, made tough choices, and tried to draft the best team we could.

These are the fruits of our labor. In this article, I'll break down how rounds four, five, and six went--who picked who, who reached, and who got steals. Keep in mind, this is a standard league, so you may find it helpful to compare these results with our PPR Mock Draft 2.0, starting with Round One.

To see how the beginning of this mock played out, check out the Round 1 recap and then Rounds 2-3.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

RotoBaller Standard Mock Draft: Rounds 4-6

Notes

  • These rounds were pretty heavy on running backs. It makes sense--at the skill positions, volume matters. Give yourself as many chances as possible. I used to play in a league with some who valued having a backup kicker and backup defense over having more depth at receiver and running back. Don't be that person.
  • Only three quarterbacks were taken in these three rounds (including my choice of Matt Ryan that I immediately regretted). This seems to reflect the growing belief that quarterback is a position that fantasy players can wait on.
  • Three tight ends were taken as well, another position that people seem to be waiting on this year.
  • There are some good players in this range. There are also some risks involved though--it's where we start to see the number two receivers and the unproven running backs get drafted. Paul Perkins? Willie Snead? These are guys who could perform well or could get relegated to emergency starts/bye week replacements.

 

Biggest Reaches

Jarvis Landry: Drafted at #38, Current ADP at #62

Landry's stock has taken a hit since Ryan Tannehill was replaced by Jay Cutler, so it's hard to fault Chris Zolli too much for making this choice where he did since Landry's ADP was higher at the time. Still, the smart money is on Landry having a fairly low ceiling this season. Jay Cutler is known for throwing the ball deep and Landry is known for doing most of his work in the short yardage game. He can be a good play in PPR, but he has limited value in Standard formats. Landry did improve his yards-per-reception last season, but his lack of scoring hurts his upside.

Golden Tate: Drafted at 52, Current ADP at #63

This is my mistake, though I made it before the Kenny Golladay Hype Train left the station so I was feeling pretty high on Tate. I should have gone with Carlos Hyde, who was somehow still on the board and is a very solid pick-up right now. (More on Hyde below.)

I'm still not 100% sure I'm saying I made a mistake with this choice--Tate had 1000 yards last season and should have a bigger role with Anquan Boldin gone. But if I'm faulting Chris for the Landry pick, I have to fault myself for choosing a player whose 2016 stats were nearly identical to Landry's and who has the same factors limiting his upside.

 

Biggest Steals

Terrelle Pryor: Drafted at # 43, Current ADP at #30

I personally think Pryor's ADP is a little bit high, but Pryor was a top twenty fantasy receiver last season in his first season as a starter at the position playing for the CLEVELAND BROWNS. THE CLEVELAND BROWNS.

There's always the chance that Pryor over-performed on a bad team in 2016--remember the 2015 season and how fantasy relevant the Jaguars wide receiver duo of Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns was?--but Pryor is a risk worth taking this season as he'll be the number one receiver in Washington, playing on a team whose quarterback is Kirk Cousins and whose running game is...uhh...not spectacular. Good steal getting Pryor at 43.

Carlos Hyde: Drafted at #53, Current ADP at #36

I wonder how much of Hyde's fall in our mock could be attributed to the brief rumor that the 49ers might be interested in moving on from him. That rumor seems to have subsided for now, which means Hyde is back to being the team's main back. Hyde only played in 13 games last season, but he ended up as the RB15. If he's healthy--and it's worth noting Hyde has never played a full 16 game season--then he could end the season as a top ten running back. To get that with pick 53 is a huge steal. If Hyde is there that late in your own drafts, you should take him.

Matt Ryan: Drafted at #69, Current ADP at #56

I made up for my reach on Golden Tate by taking Matt Ryan ten spots after his average draft position. The smart money going into this draft season is to wait on quarterbacks, but Ryan finished last season as the number two quarterback. He's worth taking at the end of round six if he's there. Quarterback is a volatile position in terms of fantasy drafts--sometimes an entire league will wait on drafting them and sometimes there's a run on them in the second and third rounds. Matt Ryan isn't worth taking before his ADP, but he's worth taking if he falls a little bit. The Falcons offense lost their offensive coordinator, but they were still a top offense in 2016. Forget the Super Bowl--the Falcons will be good this year and if you can get Matt Ryan where I did--do it.

 

Final Thoughts

I don't think anyone made any huge mistakes here--Landry and Tate at least have decent floors. We managed to not get caught up by any hype here and all did what needs to be done in these important rounds--we picked players who were solid. Rounds four, five, and six are too early for the preseason hype lottery tickets--don't waste these important choices on the Next Big Thing who you'll cut after five weeks. Overall our guys did a fine job of finding players at the appropriate values.

 

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