X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

RotoBaller Standard Mock Draft Analysis - Round One

Hallelujah, we’ve officially entered fantasy draft season! Even though it’s a good idea to focus on the here and now when it comes to players and their average draft position (ADP), I personally love looking back at earlier mock draft results to see how values have shifted.

The preseason is rife with player progress, setbacks, and injuries that can completely alter the fantasy football landscape, making for some extremely interesting retrospective analysis. In this article, I’ll be taking a look back at round one of the Rotoballer 12-team standard mock draft that began in late July and ran through mid-August, all the while pointing out some of the key takeaways of note for fantasy owners.

For a look at our most recent PPR Mock Draft results, check out the first round recap here.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!

 

Brief Summary

Let’s start by looking at a summary of the picks made in round one. The following photo shows the round number (left), overall pick number (middle), and player name (right) of all the selections made.

Perhaps to no one’s surprise, the early August consensus top three running backs and top three wide receivers all went off the board by pick number seven. After that, it becomes a mix of second tier talent that includes target hound A.J. Green and bell-cow runner Melvin Gordon. Although Michael Thomas managed to squirm his way into the first round at 11th overall, Rob Gronkowski is by far the largest reach with his early August ADP sitting in the late second round. Aside from Elliott and Gronkowski, the first round of this mock draft could very well be what many fantasy owners will face in their August drafts.

 

Key Takeaways

The first round of fantasy drafts is typically uneventful compared to the mid-to-late rounds. However, there are a few important selections that are worth taking a closer look at.

The Big-Six Fly Off the Board Quickly, But One Name Will Fall…

While the top three wide receivers in Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., and Julio Jones will all likely be drafted within the first seven picks of most standard fantasy drafts, one of the top running backs has seen his stock plummet. Sophomore Dallas Cowboy running back Ezekiel Elliott was handed a 6-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy on August 11, meaning his first game of the season will be against the Washington Redskins in Week 8 due to the Cowboy’s Week 6 bye. Elliott’s legal team has appealed the decision, but it’s more likely that he will be stuck with the suspension. League Commissioner Roger Goodell has shown little flexibility in the past on domestic violence rulings.

Once a top fantasy choice, Elliott shouldn’t be taken before the mid-to-late third round of most league formats. He has a great chance of finishing outside of the top-10 at the running back position and the risk of putting your team in a hole early on outweighs the potential benefit of having him in your starting lineup for the back half of the season. However, if you do plan on taking him with one of your draft picks, there are two keys to success. First, draft at least one running back with a high floor early on prior to Elliott so as to have consistency at the position. Second, ensure that you create a safety net with the running backs you select later in the draft by playing the favorable matchup games through the first six weeks of the season. Choosing Elliott means sacrificing your ability to stash potential breakout runners, instead forcing you to look for guys later in the draft like Jonathon Stewart or Thomas Rawls that can produce at a discounted cost while you fill other positions early on.

Michael Thomas (WR, NO) Enters the First Round Conversation

New Orleans Saints’ wide-out Michael Thomas has managed to find a way into the first round of this particular mock draft, going ahead of established Green Bay Packers’ stud Jordy Nelson as the WR6. Why does that sound so familiar? Oh yeah, because I happened to argue for just such a draft day decision in another article for Rotoballer comparing the two!

I’ll give the short version of what I said. Since 2006, the New Orleans Saints’ top wide receiver has had an incredibly consistent share of the teams’ targets, never falling below 16% at its lowest and reaching 23% at its peak. Thomas will undoubtedly be that player in 2017 after catching 76% of his targets and showing how productive he can be with an increased role in the offense down the stretch, catching 6 touchdowns over the final eight games last season. Furthermore, he has massive touchdown upside as a 6`3, physical target that bullies corners at the line of scrimmage. Nelson, on the other hand, is hitting an age that is notoriously recognized as the point of decline for wide receivers, especially in fantasy football. Over the last 10 years, only two of 71 wide receivers from age 32 onward have finished in the top five of fantasy scoring, meaning he lacks the upside of a conventional WR1. There were also signs of decline last season that are obvious red flags, with Nelson’s 13.4 yards per reception taking a knock down to 12.8 from week 9 onward and a career low 8.3 yards per target to finish the 2016 season.

If you asked me to pick between the two in a vacuum, Thomas gets the edge as a can’t miss player at a position where consistency is paramount. Of course, I didn’t write specifically about picking him in the first round. Although Thomas is one of the safest picks in the first two rounds, he may not be the league-winner that many would want him to be. Devonta Freeman could definitely earn some consideration ahead of him, but a big part of what made Thomas such a great draft selection was the fact that you could pick up a solid running back with the a late pick in the first round and swing around to select him in the second. That being said, if you want to take a reach on Michael Thomas early, I won’t be the voice in your head trying to stop you!

Is Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE) Worth a First Round Pick?

No, and the justification is two words: positional scarcity.

Most 12-team, standard scoring fantasy football leagues will have starting lineups that consist of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and a flex spot. As should be readily obvious, choosing to fill a spot in your lineup that requires a single player as compared to multiple spots puts you at an inherent disadvantage simply by virtue of having fewer solid contributors. The deficiency you set yourself up for with the two most important positions, running back and wide receiver, will cause issues barring any major steals or breakthrough sleepers.

Rob Gronkowski might be worth a late second round selection, but my personal strategy is to draft a late round tight end with massive upside and take my chances with the waiver wire if it doesn’t hit. The consequences of missing won’t cost you your fantasy season and you can often find options that will be serviceable replacements. This doesn’t mean choosing Houstan Texans’ tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz as your number one option, nor does it mean betting on the waiver wire to guarantee prosperity. Just be wary that a first, even second round draft pick on a tight end can set you back a lap behind your fellow owners.

 

More Fantasy Football Mock Drafts and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nick Senzel8 hours ago

Expected To Miss 3-4 Weeks
Jon Gray8 hours ago

To Start On Sunday
Justin Steele8 hours ago

Likely To Go On Injured List
Anfernee Simons10 hours ago

Out Against The Heat
Max Kepler11 hours ago

X-Rays Come Back Negative On Max Kepler
Keldon Johnson11 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Justin Steele11 hours ago

Has Left-Hamstring Tightness
Matisse Thybulle11 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Davis Bertans11 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Friday
Jusuf Nurkic11 hours ago

Questionable Against Oklahoma City
Dario Saric11 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Noah Clowney11 hours ago

Probable For Nets Friday
Jonathan Kuminga11 hours ago

Questionable For Warriors Friday
Jerami Grant11 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Friday
Dennis Smith11 hours ago

Jr. Probable For Friday
Lauri Markkanen12 hours ago

Questionable Against Houston
Toumani Camara12 hours ago

Will Not Play Friday
Justin Steele12 hours ago

Exits Thursday's Start
Richaun Holmes12 hours ago

Out Versus Pistons
Cameron Johnson12 hours ago

Out Against Chicago On Friday
Luka Doncic12 hours ago

On The Injury Report For Friday
David Bednar12 hours ago

Still Dealing With Lat Injury
Deandre Ayton12 hours ago

Is Questionable For Friday
Rudy Gobert12 hours ago

Might Miss Friday's Game
Tyus Jones12 hours ago

Unavailable For Friday
Zeke Nnaji12 hours ago

Ruled Out Against Minnesota
Jaden Ivey12 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Rhys McKee12 hours ago

Searching For First UFC Win
Anthony Edwards12 hours ago

Uncertain For Friday Night
Chidi Njokuani12 hours ago

Drops Back Down To Welterweight At UFC Atlantic City
Kyle Nelson12 hours ago

An Underdog Again At UFC Atlantic City
Bill Algeo12 hours ago

Eyes Sixth UFC Win
Joaquin Buckley13 hours ago

Gets Ranked Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Vicente Luque13 hours ago

Gets Short-Notice Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Eduardo Rodriguez13 hours ago

Could Throw Off Mound In 5-7 Days
Max Kepler13 hours ago

Leaves On Opening Day With Injury
Nick Senzel14 hours ago

Suffers Broken Thumb
Jason Foley14 hours ago

Earns The Save For Tigers
Tarik Skubal14 hours ago

Tosses Six Scoreless Innings On Opening Day
Corbin Burnes15 hours ago

Pitches A Gem On Opening Day
Royce Lewis15 hours ago

Exits With Quad Injury
Max Scherzer16 hours ago

Throws Bullpen Session
Clayton Kershaw17 hours ago

"Ahead Of Things" Timetable-Wise
Walker Buehler17 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule
Corey Seager17 hours ago

Active On Opening Day
Oneil Cruz17 hours ago

Batting Sixth On Opening Day
Bryan Reynolds19 hours ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jordan Romano21 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Aaron Ekblad22 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov22 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto22 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin22 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard22 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins22 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist22 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear22 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Mark Hubbard2 days ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson2 days ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen2 days ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers2 days ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers2 days ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers2 days ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers2 days ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
Jayden Daniels2 days ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
Tank Bigsby2 days ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Josh Reynolds2 days ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Doug Ghim2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA2 days ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry2 days ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox2 days ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak2 days ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan2 days ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg2 days ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn2 days ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby2 days ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin2 days ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord2 days ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala2 days ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler2 days ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder2 days ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff3 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins3 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams3 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT3 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn3 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield3 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR3 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras3 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen3 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb3 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift3 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson3 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell3 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans3 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott3 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley3 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs3 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad3 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson3 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas4 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas4 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan4 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson4 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla4 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo4 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron4 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley4 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo5 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal5 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott5 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa5 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams5 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala5 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen5 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron5 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Marvin Harrison Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

2024 NFL Mock Draft: First-Rounder With Trades

The 2024 NFL Draft is less than a month away. Yet, that isn’t soon enough for football fans. While everyone wants to discuss the quarterback class and the first few picks, the NFL Draft doesn’t end after the first round. Teams will find starters and star players on the second and third days of the... Read More


Kyren Williams - Fantasy Football, Waiver Wire Pickups

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact- Part III

Throughout the NFL's offseason, many players see their fantasy football values fluctuate based on their movement and personnel decisions by their respective teams. Throughout this series, we have identified 12 players who have seen their fantasy football value increase over the free-agency period. The final big fantasy football value movement will come after the NFL... Read More


UFL DFS PICKS, FANTASY FOOTBALL, DRAFTKINGS, FANDUEL

UFL DFS Value Plays: Week 1 Bargain Bin for DraftKings Including E.J. Perry, CJ Marable, Jace Sternberger, more

Welcome to the Week 1 edition of RotoBaller's UFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players in DraftKings' Week 1 UFL contests. Each week during the UFL 2024 season and postseason, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit for DraftKings'... Read More


2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 1

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire on draft night. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the first round of the draft. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller!... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Early Look At Wide Receivers In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

The upcoming NFL Draft is less than a month away. While everyone is excited for the NFL Draft, fantasy players are looking forward to the regular season. While we won’t have meaningful NFL football for months, it’s never too early to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Last year, the fantasy football world saw multiple... Read More


Spencer Rattler, College Football Transfers

Underrated Rookie Draft Targets - Early 2024 Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football

We are a month out from the NFL Draft, meaning if you are here, you are probably looking for draft content and reading up on prospects. You probably have all of the information you need on stud prospects like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s not what you’re here for.  Rookie draft season for... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More