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Louis Varland Could Keep Strong Run Going in Second Half

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Jul 17, 2026, 11:44 AM ET

Toronto Blue Jays right-handed reliever Louis Varland has been one of the biggest surprises in fantasy baseball as a closer through the first half of the season, going 3-3 with a 1.10 ERA (1.43 FIP), 0.98 WHIP, his first 19 career saves, 67 strikeouts, and 13 walks in 49 innings pitched to become a first-time All-Star. The 28-year-old has yet to blow a save so far in 2026, which could lead many to believe that he's due for plenty of regression in the second half in his first full season with the Blue Jays. However, with the third-best xwOBA (.223) among all pitchers in baseball, Varland's underlying metrics back up his strong first-half showing. The former 15th-rounder by the Minnesota Twins in 2019 out of Concordia University has allowed five earned runs on 12 hits (one homer) in 18 innings since the start of June, but he's also struck out 25, walked four, and recorded 11 saves during that span. Varland's expected ERA of 2.04 predicts some regression coming, but not enough to consider him a true sell-high candidate as a closer in fantasy. His hard-hit rate sits in the 64th percentile, and his barrel rate is in the 98th percentile. When you combine that with a strikeout rate in the 99th percentile, you have an elite closer.--Keith Hernandez
Source: Baseball Reference
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