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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 5/31/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
It's a gorgeous day for baseball with very few spots across the league where weather might impede play today. I love a good Saturday slate with a lot of late-afternoon action and plenty of games in the evening, too.
We are back today hunting for NRFIs, and I think I have found five spots to attack on this slate. A few of these games have elite starting pitchers, at least on one side, and others might be more reliant on some negative, offensive trends, but anyway, as you slice it, I've located my top games to target with NRFI bets.
In this piece, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today for MLB games on Saturday, May 31, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets today are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are picks where you determine whether or not two MLB teams will score one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
These are popular bets because bettors only have to sweat out the first inning and not the entire game's outcome. The most common outcome for the first inning is an NRFI, so the odds usually reflect that, with NRFI bets carrying shorter odds than YRFIs.
Even the best offenses in baseball are still only scoring a run in roughly 50% of their first innings. Every day, I'll weigh the Vegas odds against what I calculate to be the expected probability of an NRFI/YRFI in each MLB game and provide my top NRFI picks and/or YRFI picks for your consideration.
Best First Inning Bets Today (May 31, 2025)
- Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies (4:05 pm)
- St. Louis Cardinals at Texas Rangers (4:05 pm)
- Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals (4:10 pm)
- San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins (4:10 pm)
- Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks (10:10 pm)
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies NRFI (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- MIL: Chad Patrick
- PHI: Jesus Luzardo
It's hard not to overstate just how good Jesus Luzardo has been for Philadelphia in his first ten starts as a Phillie.
Since ERA became official in both leagues in 1913, two MLB lefties have gone undefeated with a sub-2.00 ERA and 10.00+ K/9 over their first 10 starts of a season.
One is the @Phillies' Jesús Luzardo this year.
The other was Randy Johnson in 1995. pic.twitter.com/Bg0fxKZ9s8
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) May 21, 2025
Apparently, he's been Randy Johnson-level good, and today he will face a Brewers lineup that ranks just 25th in wRC+ against LHP over the last month. If he can work around William Contreras, I think he can make quick work of the Brew Crew in the first frame.
Chad Patrick is the pitcher we probably have to worry a little more about, as he doesn't have the same type of elite stuff as Luzardo and will face a potent top-of-the-order for the Phillies. He has had a lot of success early in games this season and has done a good job of limiting hard contact. Through 11 starts, he's allowed just four home runs and has a solid 7.5% walk rate.
Both teams are 6-4 on offensive NRFIs over their last ten, so that trend doesn't really support the play, but it also doesn't scare me off too much, either. I love the matchup for Luzardo, and I think Patrick is good enough to subdue the Phillies for at least one inning.
St. Louis Cardinals at Texas Rangers NRFI (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- STL: Sonny Gray
- TEX: Patrick Corbin
I am still suffering some symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder after watching the Rangers get to Matthew Liberatore early last night, but Texas is still just 2-8 at scoring in the first frame over their last ten games. Sonny Gray has been solid all season, and I give him the upper hand over this Texas offense that had been struggling for a while before putting up 11 runs last night.
Trusting Patrick Corbin feels gross, but to his credit, he has pitched better this season than most of us thought he would. He gets the Cardinals on the wrong side of their splits and should face at least two lefties at the top of the first with Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar.
If you didn't notice, the NRFI prices have been going up lately, so getting this game at -125 is a pretty solid value considering how effective Gray and Corbin have been early in games.
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals NRFI (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- DET: Tarik Skubal
- KCR: Michael Wacha
I don't think I need to spend much time convincing you that Tarik Skubal is good or that he has a great shot at buzzing through the Royals in the first inning. He's on an incredible run right now, and I won't be surprised if he throws another gem today.
Tarik Skubal just threw as good of a game as you're ever going to see. His start against Cleveland:
9 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 13 K
94 pitches, 72 strikes
Final pitch: 102.6 mph, the hardest of his career
26 swings and misses
First CG of his career
pic.twitter.com/SzSVHd5fV5— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) May 25, 2025
This bet comes down to Michael Wacha against the Detroit offense. Wacha is enjoying a solid 2025 campaign with a 3.21 ERA through the first third of the season. He's been excellent in the first inning, and he also tends to have reverse splits with right-handed hitters finding more success against him as he's a fastball-changeup pitcher.
This bodes well for him today, as the dangerous bats at the top of the Tigers lineup that I worry about the most are lefties Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene.
There's a lot of juice on this bet, but I think it's still worth the squeeze at -150. A scoreless frame from Skubal in his current form feels as close to a lock as they come, and Wacha has been very dependable this season.
San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins NRFI (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- SFG: Robbie Ray
- MIA: Edward Cabrera
I have to give both pitchers a big advantage in this game, as both offenses have struggled lately. We saw the Giants take the first game in the series 2-0 last night as lefty Kyle Harrison shut down the Marlins, and Cal Quantrill pitched well with seven strikeouts as well.
I mean, Cal Quantrill is probably one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball, and he cruised through this Giants lineup for the most part, allowing a couple of hits and a home run to Matt Chapman.
Today, we get an even better lefty in veteran Robbie Ray for the Giants and a very talented (though inconsistent) righty in Edward Cabrera. I'm not too worried about Ray, who has been fantastic this season, but Cabrera is the guy who could make us sweat.
Edward Cabrera thru 5 IP...
17 batters faced
9 strikeouts
ZERO walks pic.twitter.com/3oCYIbhFJB— Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) May 25, 2025
Cabrera has struggled with control throughout his career. However, he has been better of late with two walks or fewer in his last five starts. He's coming off his best outing of the year, as he whiffed 10 Angels. I like his chances of keeping it rolling against a struggling Giants offense today.
Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks NRFI (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- WAS: Mike Soroka
- ARI: Brandon Pfaadt
Now these are some great odds! The books are taking the overall game total into account when pricing the NRFI, and I get it since this game is pegged for nine runs by Vegas, and we saw these teams combine for 16 runs last night.
But what if I told you that Mike Soroka was 5-0 on NRFIs and Brandon Pfaadt was 9-2? Both pitchers will have to face some very good hitters in the first inning, but they're both pretty good righties who put up a goose egg relatively easily, too.
We don't come across these odds very often for NRFIs, especially when we have two competent pitchers on the mound. It's easily the riskiest bet on my card as Washington is red hot and this ballpark usually supports more offense than pitching, but it's a risk I am willing to take to secure a nice payout and double up my investment.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Longest NRFI Streak: Angels, Jays, Red Sox, Giants (9-1)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Reds (40%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Mariners (5)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: D-Backs (.378)
- Best First Inning On Base Percentage: Reds (.462)
As we head into a full Saturday slate of MLB action, today's NRFI betting opportunities are as promising as ever. With elite starters like Jesús Luzardo, Tarik Skubal, and Sonny Gray taking the mound, and several offenses trending cold in the first inning, the matchups offer strong value for disciplined bettors.
Whether you're looking to back consistent arms or fade streaky lineups, these NRFI bets are backed by recent trends, pitcher form, and favorable odds.
Keep in mind that NRFI betting today is all about timing—monitor final lineups, track weather conditions, and shop for the best odds across sportsbooks.
From early afternoon showdowns to late-night West Coast games, this slate provides a great chance to cash in on the growing market of No Run First Inning bets. Stay sharp, trust the data, and may your Saturday NRFI tickets stay scoreless.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and thanks for reading!
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