RADIO
Justin Carter's DraftKings DFS lineup picks for the NASCAR Xfinity Series Hard Rock Bet 300 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Read his daily fantasy NASCAR advice and Xfinity sleepers. (2025)
The NASCAR Xfinity Series heads to Homestead-Miami Speedway on Saturday for the Hard Rock Bet 300. Coming into this race, Justin Allgaier is the current points leader, sitting 19 points in front of Jesse Love. No surprises there, as Allgaier is the clear favorite this season.
What is surprising is that Ryan Sieg sits 10th in points and Jeb Burton is 12th. The two are ahead of JR Motorsports driver Carson Kvapil and Joe Gibbs Racing's Brandon Jones and William Sawalich.
Let's look at some NASCAR Xfinity DFS lineup picks for the NASCAR Xfinity Series Hard Rock Bet 300 on DraftKings. Be sure to also check out our NASCAR Premium Tools for Xfinity Series, including our DFS Lineup Optimizer and powerful Research Station. This slate locks on 3/22/25 at 4:08 p.m. EST.
Holiday Special! Save 50% on any Premium Pass using discount code THANKS. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Premium Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESS
Xfinity DFS Preview - DraftKings
Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles and analyses to help you set your optimal DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Post-Qualifying Updates
Potential Dominators
Connor Zilisch starts second and could lead a lot of early laps, but Justin Allgaier in fourth is probably the best bet to get out front early. Sam Mayer, who starts sixth, has a great shot at the win as well.
But Kyle Larson is the name to circle. He only starts 17th, but should make his way through the field, giving him place differential upside and a great shot at the win.
Place Differential Plays
Aside from the obvious of Kyle Larson, here are some other drivers to target for place differential:
- Sammy Smith (Starts 15th)
- Jesse Love (Starts 20th) - One of the top plays on this slate
- Austin Hill (Starts 21st) - Also one of the top plays on this slate
- Jeb Burton (Starts 23rd)
- Daniel Dye (Starts 30th)
- Corey Heim (Starts 31st)
- Brandon Jones (Starts 38th) - CHALK ALERT!
Top Plays
Kyle Larson ($12.5K)
Can Kyle Larson sweep the weekend? He's off to a strong start as he won Friday night's Craftsman Truck Series race, coming back from a Lap 91 spin to grab the victory.
Larson showcased his skill in the comeback win, pushing the edge and displaying his great touch as he expertly ran along the fence without making a mistake, coming through traffic to earn the win.
NASCAR Xfinity Series predictions for Homestead:
1. Kyle Larson 51.2%
2. Justin Allgaier 9.4%
3. Austin Hill 5.9%
4. Sam Mayer 5.8%
5. Connor Zilisch 4.6%Full win/T3/T5 sims plus betting values at @FDSportsbook ⬇️ https://t.co/hfWS2tOlym
— Jim Sannes (@JimSannes) March 21, 2025
Now, Larson goes after his second win at the track in two days. He felt overpriced in the Truck Series race, but $12.5K seems right for a driver who could curb-stomp this field.
Justin Allgaier ($10.5K)
Last season, Justin Allgaier finally broke through and won his first Xfinity Series championship. Now, he's off to a dominant start to the 2025 season, leading the point standings after winning at Vegas last week. Allgaier led 102 laps in last week's race, the second consecutive start that he's led over 100 laps.
But now Allgaier heads to one of his worst tracks. In 16 starts here, Allgaier has just four top 10s with an average finish of 16.6. However, two of those have come in the last three races here as he's seemed to be turning things around.
Austin Hill ($9.8K)
Austin Hill was the winner when the Xfinity Series was here last fall, starting 16th and leading 82 of 200 laps on his way to the win. In three Xfinity starts at Homestead, Hill's worst finish is ninth. He also has a win here in the Truck Series.
Jesse Love ($9.5K)
It's been a great start to the season for RCR's Jesse Love, who enters this race in second place in the overall point standings. Through five races, Love has a win and three other top 10s.
Last year, Love started 14th at this track and went on to finish fourth. He's been very solid on intermediate tracks this season and should be viewed as a top contender.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS NASCAR subscription?
Like what you're reading? You can show your support for Justin by using promo code CARTER when purchasing a NASCAR Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium NASCAR articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!
Mid-Tier Options
Sam Mayer ($9.0K)
Sam Mayer hasn't missed a beat since moving to Haas Factory Team. In fact, he's running better than he ever has, posting an average finish of 10.6 and sitting third in the overall point standings.
Could this be the week Mayer gets his first win with his new team? Maybe! Homestead is a track where he's won before as he led 46 laps in 2023 on his way to the victory, plus he finished fifth and ninth in his other two starts here.
Brandon Jones ($8.6K)
Brandon Jones has gotten off to a middling start this season, but Homestead might be the right track to get him turned around.
Jones has six top 10s here in 10 career starts with an average finish of 9.9. That includes runner-up results here in 2020 and 2021. He also got some added experience on Friday night, running the Truck Series race. Unfortunately for Jones, he finished 12th, but logging those laps should still help him on Saturday.
Corey Heim ($8.4K)
If it hadn't been for a mysterious issue causing his truck to lose power, Corey Heim might have won Friday night's Truck Series race. He settled for a third-place finish.
Corey Heim's truck started shutting off again and it gave Kyle Larson the chance he needed.
He runs down Layne Riggs with two laps to go and drives away to win the Truck race at Homestead. pic.twitter.com/Hnj01CfOq8
— Steven Taranto (@STaranto92) March 22, 2025
Now, Heim is set to make his second Xfinity Series start of the year and will look to bounce back from a disappointing result at COTA and this is certainly a track where he could do that. In three Truck Series starts here, Heim's worst finish is fifth.
Ryan Sieg ($8.2K)
Ryan Sieg enters this weekend off back-to-back top 10s, most recently finishing seventh at Vegas. The veteran independent driver has also run well recently at Homestead, including posting his best-ever finish at the track last year when he finished seventh in the Credit One NASCAR AMEX Credit Card 300.
Taylor Gray ($7.9K)
Surprisingly, Taylor Gray has been JGR's best full-time driver this season as he sits seventh in points with three top 10s in five races. Gray led four laps and finished 10th in the Truck Series race here last season.
Value Options
Justin Bonsignore ($7.7K)
Justin Bonsignore is the boom-or-bust driver of this race. He's obviously fast equipment, but the Modified Series veteran has limited experience in Xfinity, finishing 22nd and 25th in his first two starts.
Xfinity tech is underway. Pictured here is the unsponsored No. 19 for Justin Bonsignore.#NASCAR pic.twitter.com/h9vvukTLgL
— RJ Starcevic (@RJStarcevic) March 21, 2025
Theoretically, Homestead is a track that should lend itself well to a driver with Bonsignore's kind of experience. It's an intermediate track, but it's definitely more of a driver's intermediate, a place where skill matters. Just watch how Kyle Larson experiments with the lines he runs.
Bonsignore could get his first Xfinity Series top 10 on Saturday. He could also finish 25th. Playing him is high risk and high reward.
William Sawalich ($7.5K)
Yes, this is the worst JGR lineup we've seen in a long time, but these are still really fast Toyotas, so having them priced like this feels off.
William Sawalich had crashed out of two races this season, but he's run well in the other three, posting two top 10s and a worst finish of 15th. I totally get the argument that Sawalich has been a disappointment, but when he hasn't crashed, he's been decent.
Harrison Burton ($7.3K)
Count me among the people who questioned how well Harrison Burton and this AM Racing team would do this year, but three top 10s in five races suggest that this team has upside.
Burton won one of the Xfinity Series races here in 2020 and has two additional top 10s at the track. He might not have quite as much juice since those races were all run for Joe Gibbs Racing, but I have faith in a top-15 run.
Daniel Dye ($6.8K)
After crashing out at Daytona, Daniel Dye has three top 20s in a row, including a 12th-place finish at Vegas last week. He's not going to set the world on fire, but Dye will continue to run solid races in this No. 10 car. An unexciting but potentially productive fantasy option.
Matt DiBenedetto ($6.4K)
It's been a solid year for Matt DiBenedetto and the Viking Motorsports team, with three top 20s and an average place differential of +6.8. He has plenty of experience on this track and should have a shot to finish inside the top 20 if he keeps the truck clean.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis
The Keys to Weekly NASCAR Success
NASCAR is back, and it's time for you to win more with RotoBaller! Our NASCAR Premium Package for DFS and betting features several heavy hitters and proven winners.
Jordan McAbee anchors the team with his exclusive NASCAR DFS and betting picks, DFS projections and algorithm-predicted finishing order! Jordan had a 60+ unit betting profit in 2024 NASCAR, and a 25% average annual profit since 2018. He won the FSWA Racing Writer Of The Year award in 2023, and has been nominated for DFS Writer Of The Year in 2024.
Five-time NASCAR Racing Writer of the Year finalist and fantasy industry legend Scott "The King" Engel is also in the crew, bringing you his weekly strategies and lineup picks. Set your winning DFS lineups with our award-winning team. He has been nominated once again in 2024 for this award.
