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Kipp Heisterman's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/9/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Austin Riley, Rhys Hoskins, Wilyer Abreu, and more.
We have a full slate of MLB action today, which makes for a ton of spots to look at and a ton of spots to have fun while hunting home runs. Our focus today will be on bats in good matchups and hitting conditions, whether in the park or the weather. I put up a donut last Friday when writing the article, so here is my redemption tour for the week.
I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. I also like to take some of these guys as one-offs in excellent spots. I will note which of these players looks to be a good fit for this type of play at the end of the player's write-up, as there is usually at least one guy we can target this way. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need two of our four hitters to go deep.
On this page, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, May 9, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. I like to target guys with higher odds in these articles, so keep that in mind when reading! Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best odds, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also essential to only risk a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since they're tough to win.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/9/2025)
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Friday, May 9:
- Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
- Rhys Hoskins, Milwaukee Brewers
- Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
- Wilyer Abreu, Boston Red Sox
Austin Riley OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350 DraftKings Sportsbook)
We have a few solid metrics going our way for Austin Riley in the Steel City tonight. The first is his matchup against Bailey Falter. Falter has faltered quite a bit this season as he has allowed a total of six home runs in seven starts. He has also allowed a home run in each of his three previous starts.
Falter has especially struggled against right-handed hitters, giving up four of his six home runs to righties. Since 2023, Falter has also allowed 29 dingers to right-handed hitters, which Austin Riley is.
Riley has now posted eight home runs on the season, with two coming off left-handers. He has also posted a .942 OPS on the season against lefties and an .878 OPS against them since 2023. His metrics also look solid, as he has posted an 11.9% barrels per plate appearance mark and an average exit velocity of 92.9 mph, which is good enough to rank him in the 95th percentile.
Austin Riley has gone deep TWICE on #SundayNightBaseball! pic.twitter.com/hHDgqTzjYA
— MLB (@MLB) May 4, 2025
Additionally, the winds are expected to blow out of PNC Park at around 10 mph, so there is a lot to like in tonight's matchup between the Pirates and Braves.
Rhys Hoskins OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+310 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Rhys Hoskins is another player who has a solid matchup tonight against Zack Littell and the Tampa Bay Rays. Hoskins has started the season decently hot as he has now hit four home runs while posting a .799 OPS. While he has yet to hit a home run on the road, the metrics tell us this could only be a matter of time.
He has an average exit velocity north of 90 mph and a 7.7% barrels per plate appearance mark. These rank him in the 73rd and 79th percentiles, respectively. He has also posted a 42.2% fly ball rate along with the power metrics.
Hoskins has hit 30 home runs since 2023, with 21 of them coming against right-handers. He will be up against Rays' right-hander Littell, who has allowed 10 home runs already this season. Six of those 10 home runs allowed have come against right-handers. Additionally, Littell has allowed four home runs in his two starts at home this season.
Littell has also given up 45 total home runs since 2023, which is a relatively large number. He has also allowed 28.8% of balls hit north of 98 mph, which ranks him in the sixth percentile.
The game will be played in Tampa with warmer weather and a slight wind of six mph blowing out.
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The metrics look so bad for Littell, who is above facing Hoskins, that we have to take another flyer on a Milwaukee Brewer. Someone in this Brewers' lineup will likely take Littell deep, given that he has allowed 10 bombs already this season. Littell has also allowed a home run in five of his seven starts.
Yelich has looked great as far as the metrics are concerned thus far in 2025. He has posted a 91 mph average exit velocity, which ranks him in the 77th percentile. He has also smacked six home runs this season. All six of those home runs have come against right-handed pitching. This should come as no surprise given his .882 OPS vs. right-handers since 2023.
Additionally, Yelich has hit 29 of his 26 home runs since 2023 against right-handed pitching. He has also hit three of his six home runs this season on the road. The weather and stadium in Tampa have been conducive to power this season, so Yelich should have a solid shot at going yard tonight.
Wilyer Abreu 0.5 Home Runs (+450 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Wilyer Abreu has been a solid player for the Red Sox for the past several seasons. He is a guy who has largely flown under the radar, but can provide quite a bit of pop and is perfect for a spot like this. Thus far in 2025, Abreu has mashed a whopping nine home runs. Every single one of these nine home runs has come against right-handed pitching. This should come as no surprise, as Abreu has posted a .876 OPS with 25 home runs against right-handed pitching since 2023.
The metrics for Abreu look pretty solid as well. In 2025, he posted a 91.2 mph average exit velocity, which ranks him in the 81st percentile. He has also posted a 41.6% hard hit rate, ranking him in the 90th percentile. Abreu has also posted a barrels per plate appearance rate of 8.6%, which ranks him in the 89th percentile. There is much to like about Abreu tonight, but we are not done yet!
He will be facing Kansas City Royals right-hander Michael Lorenzen, who has struggled quite a bit with the long ball in 2025. Thus far, Lorenzen has allowed a total of eight home runs. He has given up four home runs apiece to left-handed hitters and right-handed hitters alike. Lorenzen has posted an ugly barrels/BBE rate of 5.3%, which ranks him in the 30th percentile.
Wilyer Abreu's slugging is up to .580 after hitting two home runs in last night's win.
MLB Now breaks down what's impressed them about the young @RedSox outfielder. pic.twitter.com/OmLTptLKRo
— MLB Now (@MLBNow) May 8, 2025
He has also struggled recently, as he has given up six home runs in his previous three starts. The recency for Abreu is quite the opposite. Over the last seven days, Abreu has smacked three home runs while posting a 1.028 OPS. Abreu has also performed well enough on the road to be included here, as four of his nine home runs have come away from Fenway Park while posting a ridiculous 1.119 OPS. Abreu is a guy you can also target as a one-off play tonight.
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