MLB Best Bets: Top Player Props & Novig Market Picks (Wednesday, 7/1/26)

July 1, 2026

Get Thunder Dan Palyo's top MLB best bets and player props for Wednesday, 7/1/26. Expert picks powered by the Novig betting exchange -- see today's highest-value plays. Win more with RotoBaller's expert betting advice.

If you like betting on baseball games, then you've come to the right place. Welcome back to my weekly Wednesday MLB betting article, where I offer up my favorite MLB bets of the day, including my specialty - pitcher strikeout props!

If you're reading this, I'll assume you also bet on baseball regularly. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy baseball and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite MLB bets and player props for Wednesday's games.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge to use their services. It's a hidden cost in the odds offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- the site keeps no commission.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager you win, and users can usually find better value on bets (in terms of the prices offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds the market offers or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

NRFI (No Runs First Inning) Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7:30 AM ET

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia: UNDER 0.5 runs - 1st Inning Total (-130)

Our best pitching matchup on this slate comes in the rubber match between these two Pennsylvania teams. The Phillies won last night behind another dominant outing by Cristopher Sanchez after dropping the opener in which Aaron Nola was shelled. They'll hand the ball to their "other ace," Zack Wheeler, who was excellent against the Pirates the first time he faced them, spinning seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts.

Zack Wheeler, Painting. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/do54CfS3A9

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 22, 2026

The Pirates will counter with Paul Skenes, who, despite being winless over the last two months, is still regarded as one of the best young arms in the game. He's been good in the first inning, shutting down the opposing lineup in nine of his last ten starts.

I would usually expect to see these odds around -150 with two bona fide aces on the bump, so take advantage here with some very respectable odds.

MLB Moneyline Bets

Tampa Bay (-125) at Kansas City

The Rays have won six in a row, and their offense is heating up with superstar Junior Caminero leading the way with a barrage of home runs.

Junior Caminero homers in a FIFTH straight game! pic.twitter.com/Kn0Xz7ombb

— MLB (@MLB) July 1, 2026

Let's not overthink this one. The Rays are rolling with Shane McClanahan on the mound, while the Royals will turn to Seth Lugo. That's a massive advantage for Tampa, which should get five or six good innings from McClanahan and can then turn it over to a very good bullpen to close it out.

Lugo is "cooked" (as the kids say) and has been worse at home this season with an ERA in the mid-fours. The wind is blowing out at Kauffman Stadium, too, which doesn't bode well for Lugo and his home run issues.

MLB First 5 Innings Bets

San Francisco F5 Moneyline (-127) at Arizona

The Diamondbacks have taken the first two games of this series, but I think the pitching matchup here in today's game strongly favors the Giants as Arizona now hands the ball to Zac Gallen, whose 6.15 ERA is the worst in MLB among qualified starters.

Let's remove the bullpens from consideration and bet on the Giants to win the first five innings in this one. The Snakes have dropped six F5s in a row when Gallen is on the mound. Trevor McDonald is starting for the Giants, and while he's had some struggles of his own, his SIERA sits at 3.98, nearly a full run lower than his ERA.

Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus

Use code BALLER to receive a $25 purchase match (50% off up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.

You also get six months of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!

You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

Prop Bet Picks

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7:30 AM ET

Andrew Alvarez OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-111)

Alvarez has not been pitching deep into games since being converted into a starter, but he has been very good in terms of racking up strikeouts on a per-inning basis. He has five or more strikeouts in four of his last five outings, and I'll bank on him doing it again in this spot against Boston, which struck out 13 times against Cade Cavalli last night.

Troy Melton OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-117)

Melton is not a big-time strikeout pitcher, but he has been able to log at least five strikeouts in four straight starts. The Yankees are in shambles right now on offense with the second-worst K% vs. RHP over the last two weeks at 28.9%.

Payton Tolle OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-106)

The other pitcher in the Boston game is standout rookie Payton Tolle. He's having a strong campaign with a 24.2% K% this year and gets a good matchup here against Washington. The Nats are striking out 28.1% of the time against LHP, which is the fourth-worst mark of any team in the majors.

MacKenzie Gore OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-138)

Another good pitching matchup today involves Gore taking on Joey Cantillo of the Guardians. I have to back Gore here, as the Guardians rank dead last the last two weeks with a 32% K% vs. LHP and a wRC+ of 4 (yes, you read that right - single digits!)

Joey Cantillo OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-111)

Cantillo has looked sharp in his last two outings, whiffing 9 in each of those starts. He had seven strikeouts against Texas last month, and the matchup is still a good one today as the Rangers are whiffing around 23% of the time against LHP. Cantillo, like Gore, is better against righties in terms of his K-rate splits, too.

Tatsuya Imai OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-156)

There's some juice here, but Imai has looked unhittable lately with double-digit strikeouts in his last two outings. His 13.3% SwStr% is elite, and he seems like he's finally settling in lately after a rocky start to his MLB career back in April and May.

Max Meyer OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-133)

Meyer has been enjoying the best year of his career, striking out six or more hitters in seven of his last ten starts. This game is in Coors, but the wind is blowing in, and Meyer will face seven lefties, which puts him on the best side of his strikeout splits. We saw Eury Perez strike out eight Rockies yesterday, and Meyer has been every bit as good as Eury this year (actually, he's been better!)

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