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Jon Anderson's Early Outfield Tiers & Rankings for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

Yordan Alvarez - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Welcome back RotoBallers to my early 2023 fantasy baseball rankings and projections series! Today, we are covering the outfield, and it's a monster! Here is what we've done so far:

I am putting my top 80 or so outfielders into this, so we'd better get started.

 

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Tier 1 - Game Breakers

Player Team Rank Tier PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Julio Rodriguez SEA 1 1 625 102 31 76 30 .276
Kyle Tucker HOU 2 1 618 89 31 96 25 .275
Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL 3 1 668 97 27 73 38 .252
Aaron Judge NYY 4 1 679 105 44 115 13 .298
Yordan Alvarez HOU 5 1 624 101 39 120 1 .309

There is no shortage of outfielders you can grab first-round production from. By my count, there are 11 of them that I could see having massive seasons. However, these five do stand out a little bit above the rest due to their five-category upside.

True, you can't get steals out of Yordan - but I think you can get 50 homers and a .300 batting average - and you can't say that for anybody else besides Judge, so that's why he makes the top tier. I would be perfectly happy starting my team with any of these names, and most likely I will be in leagues where you have to field five outfielders. The position thins out pretty quickly so you want to be aggressive on the outfield in deep leagues.

 

Tier 2

Player Team Rank Tier PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Mookie Betts LAD 6 2 619 107 32 82 17 .272
Juan Soto SD 7 2 620 85 26 79 8 .264
Mike Trout LAA 8 2 516 90 38 92 2 .271
Kyle Schwarber PHI 9 2 640 100 45 103 8 .251
Adolis Garcia TEX 10 2 652 79 30 98 25 .243
Luis Robert CWS 11 2 600 77 19 81 21 .282

Betts and Soto could and maybe should be in Tier 1, but I just think the upside is a little bit lower. With Betts, that's because his steals have slowed down a bit and he's not a real 40-homer threat. With Soto, it's because he takes so many walks and hits so many ground balls that it's tough to see a huge homer season from him unless he makes some approach changes.

Any of the top three there will fall into the second round, which is great. I might be a little higher than the field on the next three there, but I really like Schwarber's batting average potential with the shift gone and I love the 30-20 upside of Garcia and Robert.

 

Tier 3

Player Team Rank Tier PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Michael Harris II ATL 12 3 588 81 22 82 31 .275
Cedric Mullins II BAL 13 3 664 87 18 58 35 .245
Randy Arozarena TB 14 3 654 78 21 82 30 .251

This is the end of the elite crop of talent, but we have three more 20-20 guys here so it's tough not to love them. The batting average is down a bit once you get here, and I can't really see any of these guys clearing 30 homers - but you are getting production across the board from this group. I love getting one of them as my second outfielder.

 

Tier 4

Player Team Rank Tier PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Eloy Jimenez CWS 15 4 610 77 27 96 0 .270
Teoscar Hernandez SEA 16 4 618 82 32 106 12 .271
George Springer TOR 17 4 618 101 28 74 17 .265
Starling Marte NYM 18 4 575 88 16 66 34 .285
Byron Buxton MIN 19 4 441 64 31 81 14 .257

We still have a big upside here in Tier 4, but you are giving up a category or taking on a lot of injury risk with all of these guys. I love Eloy if he can stay healthy, I think Teoscar's power and RBI potential are underrated - and I think he has an outside shot at 20 steals too if the new rule changes turn out to be a big impact.

With Marte, you have the questions about his declining steal rate and he's never been a confidence pick in the homers and RBI category, but he does a little bit of everything and did lead the league in steals in 2021. Buxton is just Buxton again, 30-20 upside again but hard to believe he can play a full year. Even with the 441 PA projection here, you can see what he's capable of.

 

Tier 5

Player Team Rank Tier PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Seiya Suzuki CHC 20 5 598 68 25 84 15 .254
Jake McCarthy ARI 21 5 564 61 10 56 33 .259
Bryan Reynolds PIT 22 5 637 87 23 75 8 .264
Taylor Ward LAA 23 5 582 89 23 65 6 .263
Anthony Santander BAL 24 5 611 73 30 95 1 .251

I like this group a good amount, too. I really like Suzuki and Ward at their current cost, I think those are potential five-category performers there as lesser-known guys who showed huge upside in spurts last year. The rest of the tier is a little bit "boring," but all very solid picks at the right cost.

 

Tier 6

Player Team Rank Tier PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Kris Bryant COL 25 6 524 68 14 56 8 .252
Steven Kwan CLE 26 6 599 79 4 42 23 .288
Nick Castellanos PHI 27 6 617 74 20 84 6 .262
Giancarlo Stanton NYY 28 6 514 69 34 96 0 .245
Tyler O'Neill STL 29 6 527 63 23 68 21 .236
Hunter Renfroe LAA 30 6 532 69 27 86 2 .248
Riley Greene DET 31 6 550 61 18 64 3 .270
Austin Meadows DET 32 6 536 69 15 45 6 .264
Corbin Carroll ARI 33 6 546 70 15 46 7 .246
Bryan De La Cruz MIA 34 6 464 55 27 55 5 .273
Ramon Laureano OAK 35 6 599 69 23 62 22 .237
Christian Yelich MIL 36 6 615 72 12 46 18 .238
Lars Nootbaar STL 37 6 476 54 16 54 8 .234

Now things open up. This is a mixed bag of guys. My favorites here are probably Riley Greene (love to see what he can do in year two), Ramon Laureano (underpriced after a tumultuous couple of years), and Kris Bryant (if he's healthy this year, he'll probably perform like a Tier 4 outfielder, and all the reports right now are that he's healthy).

 

Tier 7

Player Team Rank Tier PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Brandon Nimmo NYM 38 7 654 86 16 55 7 .263
Ian Happ CHC 39 7 606 67 18 71 11 .251
Oscar Gonzalez CLE 40 7 546 68 16 65 2 .273
Jesse Winker MIL 41 7 513 56 17 63 1 .256
Harrison Bader NYY 42 7 541 62 11 54 21 .244
Alex Verdugo BOS 43 7 624 76 12 77 5 .286
Manual Margot TB 44 7 541 65 10 56 17 .276
Andrew Benintendi CWS 45 7 563 70 12 55 11 .277

And now you're onto guys you probably don't want to be starting in a standard league. You are giving up something big with each of them (mostly power), and there's not a ton of real upside in the group (except for Gonzalez as a young guy who played really well late last year).

 

Tier 8

Player Team Rank Tier PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Max Kepler MIN 46 8 530 61 15 64 11 .264
Mitch Haniger SF 47 8 586 69 28 81 1 .241
Michael Conforto SF 48 8 513 55 15 61 1 .257
Tyrone Taylor MIL 49 8 464 63 20 62 8 .246
Tommy Pham BOS 50 8 524 56 13 52 11 .225
Charlie Blackmon COL 51 8 557 66 12 66 4 .278
Mike Yastrzemski SF 52 8 571 71 21 64 7 .240
Joc Pederson SF 53 8 501 60 23 74 3 .251
Austin Hays BAL 54 8 585 73 17 67 6 .248
Jake Fraley CIN 55 8 473 45 13 43 17 .227
Lane Thomas WAS 56 8 555 64 14 43 12 .228

More bench bats, but some upside re-appears. I think Kepler can get the batting average above .240 this year with the shift change, but admittedly this .264 projection is much too high. Then you have some sneaky power guys with Haniger, Conforto, Yastrzemski, and Pederson - but they all have playing time questions on that team.

Lane Thomas and Tommy Pham are probably better for fantasy than they are given credit for, so I am okay with them as reserve outfielders - but overall they're unexciting.

 

Tier 9

Player Team Rank Tier PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Brandon Marsh PHI 57 9 478 61 14 53 13 .247
A.J. Pollock SEA 58 9 459 61 16 57 7 .261
Jarred Kelenic SEA 59 9 410 47 17 46 11 .199
Trayce Thompson LAD 60 9 385 49 18 53 11 .240
Jurickson Profar FA 61 9 528 55 8 47 10 .256
Cody Bellinger CHC 62 9 488 52 15 51 15 .225
Jorge Soler MIA 63 9 508 55 22 68 0 .239
Juan Yepez STL 64 9 316 39 11 37 0 .215
Avisail Garcia MIA 65 9 577 55 17 65 9 .229
Michael Brantley HOU 66 9 447 64 8 48 2 .300
Masataka Yoshida BOS 67 9 -- -- -- -- -- --
Lourdes Gurriel ARI 68 9 558 62 11 56 3 .269
Trent Grisham SD 69 9 537 62 16 56 13 .205
Myles Straw CLE 70 9 480 49 3 35 25 .244
Leody Taveras TEX 71 9 513 50 9 43 24 .219

Now we're just into "the rest." There will probably be a few really good seasons that come out of this group, but I can't tell you who that will be with any amount of confidence.

The safety picks here are probably Pollock and Profar, and the upside goes to Kelenic, Bellinger, Yepez, and Yoshida (who I'm not even doing a projection for, I just have no idea).

 

Tier 10

Player Team Rank Tier PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Andrew McCutchen PIT 72 10 492 51 16 60 7 .238
Mark Canha NYM 73 10 565 58 13 54 9 .244
Kevin Kiermaier TOR 74 10 414 54 9 45 13 .254
Esteury Ruiz OAK 75 10 414 36 3 26 5 .221
Akil Baddoo DET 76 10 417 42 6 30 19 .220
Joey Gallo MIN 77 10 454 46 24 54 4 .186
Marcell Ozuna ATL 78 10 430 58 18 59 1 .233

And I round it out with these names. They are all either boring veterans who can do something for our team while they're playing or younger guys who could steal some bags if they find playing time.

Ruiz is interesting as a guy who will likely attempt steals at a rate higher than any other player in the league. The trade to Oakland also makes it more likely that he finds some playing time, but the guy doesn't seem like a Major League hitter at this point. It's possible that he still finds a way to steal 25-30 bags even if a lot of them are from pinch running. You could do worse for a 40th-round pick as a fifth or bench outfielder.

And that is the outfield for you. If you were looking for someone you didn't see, it's probably because I ranked them at their other position earlier in this series (Varsho, Lux, etc.). Hope this helps, thanks for reading!



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