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Welcome back RotoBallers to my early 2023 fantasy baseball rankings and projections series! Today we are onto the shortstop position in my early positional ranks and tiers posts. Here is what we've done so far:
This may be the deepest position in the game this year. This was true last year, too, but the top couple of tiers have gotten even stronger here. Lots to like in this spot, so let's get to the names!
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Tier 1 - Philly Trea
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Trea Turner | PHI | 1 | 1 | 629 | 102 | 22 | 70 | 31 | .291 |
At the end of the year, Trea Turner won't be the #1 shortstop in fantasy, probably. There are just too many other guys that have a legitimate shot at that crown. The reason for me putting him in Tier 1 all by himself is the consistency of fantasy greatness we have seen from him since 2018. Here's a quick look at the numbers from him:
| Year | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| 2018 | 103 | 19 | 73 | 43 | .271 |
| 2019 | 96 | 19 | 57 | 35 | .298 |
| 2020 | 46 | 12 | 41 | 12 | .335 |
| 2021 | 107 | 28 | 77 | 32 | .328 |
| 2022 | 101 | 21 | 100 | 27 | .298 |
If you would have picked Trea with the #1 overall pick each of these years, you wouldn't have been disappointed a single time. You just can't say that for any other player we'll talk about (probably during this entire series), so that earns Trea the top spot.
Tier 2 - More Five Category Contributors
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | 2 | 2 | 425 | 76 | 33 | 75 | 20 | .272 |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | 3 | 2 | 625 | 76 | 23 | 80 | 16 | .243 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | 4 | 2 | 665 | 85 | 21 | 72 | 30 | .246 |
These three could all top Trea pretty easily. We would probably rank Tatis above Turner if he weren't set to miss the first few weeks of the season - plus there are some health questions with him at this point. He's perfectly fine to be aggressive on in drafts given how elite he's been for fantasy production when on the field.
I'm a little bit lower on Witt, who has been going in the first round sometimes. I think I'll be letting everybody else chase that - but you can't argue that he's not a legitimate 30/30 threat this year. Lindor goes in above him just because of the counting stats here. He's good at everything and the Mets are going to score a ton of runs this year.
Tier 3 - Just Shy of Greatness
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Corey Seager | TEX | 5 | 3 | 641 | 93 | 29 | 79 | 3 | .287 |
| Bo Bichette | TOR | 6 | 3 | 616 | 96 | 24 | 82 | 22 | .291 |
| Tim Anderson | CWS | 7 | 3 | 599 | 83 | 15 | 57 | 24 | .297 |
| Xander Bogaerts | SD | 8 | 3 | 670 | 85 | 19 | 99 | 8 | .279 |
I'm banking on the shift thing really helping Seager, as we have assumed it will here. Giving him a batting average above .280 makes him awful appealing given his R/HR/RBI ability in that Rangers lineup.
There's a discount on Bichette this year after his (mini) sophomore slump. He's still a 20-20 projection here with a good batting average, so you could certainly bubble him up into the second tier or even the first if you believe his rookie year was more truthful than his second year. Tim Anderson and Xander Bogaerts are really cheap in drafts after their disappointing 2022 seasons, but I'm in on both - I don't see a way they disappoint very much if they're healthy, and they both play in good lineups.
Tier 4
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Oneil Cruz | PIT | 9 | 4 | 554 | 79 | 21 | 54 | 23 | .224 |
| Carlos Correa | MIN | 10 | 4 | 659 | 92 | 25 | 78 | 1 | .276 |
| Dansby Swanson | CHC | 11 | 4 | 636 | 88 | 24 | 75 | 16 | .276 |
We have an elite upside here with Cruz, as he could be an easy 35-25 player, but the batting average with the awful K% and the Pirates lineup hold down our expectations for him in 2023. Correa and Swanson were just fine last year, but they both lack a lot of that fantasy 5x5 upside. They are fine consolation prizes if you miss out on all of the eight shortstops - as we said, this is a deep position.
Tier 5
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Tommy Edman | STL | 12 | 5 | 631 | 93 | 11 | 64 | 38 | .263 |
| Willy Adames | MIL | 13 | 5 | 657 | 94 | 32 | 80 | 8 | .251 |
| Wander Franco | TB | 14 | 5 | 613 | 85 | 15 | 72 | 11 | .290 |
| Jeremy Pena | HOU | 15 | 5 | 568 | 67 | 21 | 66 | 14 | .251 |
| Javier Baez | DET | 16 | 5 | 587 | 68 | 22 | 57 | 17 | .243 |
And now we hit a bit of a cliff. We have more "specialists" at this point. Edman gets most of his value from runs and steals, Adames from homers and RBI, Franco from batting average, etc.
If there's a "breakout" after this point, it could very well be Pena. He had a good rookie year but it wasn't fantastic for fantasy purposes. He's in a great lineup and has all kinds of talent, so he's a nice upside pick later on in the draft. I also really like the Javier Baez bounce-back here, I think this projection is reasonable and it makes him probably a Tier 4 guy, but his history of going on absolutely awful streaks will always downgrade him for me from what the projection is saying.
Tier 6
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Thairo Estrada | SF | 17 | 6 | 567 | 71 | 12 | 49 | 20 | .258 |
| Amed Rosario | CLE | 18 | 6 | 605 | 78 | 12 | 67 | 18 | .284 |
| Nico Hoerner | CHC | 19 | 6 | 607 | 82 | 9 | 57 | 28 | .287 |
| C.J. Abrams | WAS | 20 | 6 | 572 | 61 | 5 | 52 | 26 | .249 |
| Vaughn Grissom | ATL | 21 | 6 | 433 | 63 | 13 | 55 | 16 | .275 |
| Christopher Morel | CHC | 22 | 6 | 487 | 54 | 16 | 54 | 15 | .232 |
| Luis Garcia | WAS | 23 | 6 | 501 | 50 | 16 | 49 | 3 | .253 |
More specialists here. You can find a lot of steals at this point, but you're hard-pressed for power. The breakout candidates here are Morel (lower the strikeouts) and Garcia (raise the launch angle and steal some more bases). I wouldn't want to start any of these guys as my primary SS, but we're still in the territory where you're okay with a middle infielder starter from this group.
Tier 7
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Luis Urias | MIL | 24 | 7 | 567 | 64 | 20 | 63 | 4 | .235 |
| Luis Rengifo | LAA | 25 | 7 | 445 | 51 | 10 | 47 | 10 | .255 |
| Jon Berti | MIA | 26 | 7 | 362 | 41 | 7 | 40 | 32 | .227 |
| Brendan Donovan | STL | 27 | 7 | 547 | 65 | 8 | 72 | 10 | .277 |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SD | 28 | 7 | 511 | 66 | 10 | 45 | 12 | .217 |
| Adalberto Mondesi | KC | 29 | 7 | 396 | 51 | 13 | 57 | 40 | .246 |
And now we're on to guys you probably don't want to rely on for much of anything. Adalberto Mondesi is of course his own special case. I've limited him to almost half of a season of PAs and the projections still spit out a huge steals year. I'm not sure if he'll do that even if he is healthy, but he has not shown that ability to stay on the field - so let's not count on that to change now.
I like Donovan fine since I think he'll be in the lineup almost every day with his defensive versatility, and he can rack up the base hits, which will bring runs and some steals with it.
Tier 8
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Jorge Mateo | BAL | 30 | 8 | 318 | 38 | 6 | 34 | 23 | .221 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | COL | 31 | 8 | 504 | 65 | 13 | 57 | 20 | .225 |
| Ramon Urias | BAL | 32 | 8 | 510 | 56 | 16 | 55 | 3 | .258 |
| Bryston Stott | PHI | 33 | 8 | 463 | 54 | 8 | 51 | 13 | .250 |
| David Fletcher | LAA | 34 | 8 | 360 | 33 | 0 | 33 | 8 | .255 |
| Enrique Hernandez | BOS | 35 | 8 | 552 | 58 | 12 | 57 | 1 | .226 |
| Rodolfo Castro | PIT | 36 | 8 | 423 | 43 | 11 | 42 | 7 | .220 |
There is a lot of playing time concern here, and there's no real power at this point anymore. You can find steals upside (Mateo, Tovar) and some "take a shot on young talent" upside (Tovar, Stott, Castro) - but chances are none of these guys are 5x5 contributors next season.
And that's the shortstop position baby! 36 shortstops ranked, let me know what you think!
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