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I started the fantasy baseball rankings and tiers series very early this year, but it's January - what else do we have to do?
The Catchers post kicked off the series, you can read that here. Today, we'll cover the first base position. I use the projection system I designed to help me in this, but I make plenty of manual adjustments when considering things like upside, age, and injury risk.
The first base position is in pretty healthy shape this year, with a deep Tier 1, and then at least three more guys after Tier 1 that you would be fine with. Let's break it down.
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Tier 1 - Five Studs
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Freddie Freeman | LAD | 1 | 1 | 627 | 101 | 21 | 90 | 11 | .308 |
| Matt Olson | ATL | 2 | 1 | 672 | 98 | 37 | 114 | 3 | .268 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | 3 | 1 | 618 | 91 | 33 | 96 | 6 | .282 |
| Pete Alonso | NYM | 4 | 1 | 668 | 88 | 38 | 102 | 5 | .264 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | STL | 5 | 1 | 619 | 90 | 27 | 95 | 10 | .275 |
Maybe some people would separate this into two tiers, but I just can't bring myself to leave Alonso away from these guys. You can see that I'm a little bit down on Goldschmidt, and that has to do with the fact that his underlying numbers actually took a dip last year as he gets well into his thirties. But look, any one of these guys could easily take the crown as the top first baseman in 2023. They all project close, but the ADP won't be nearly as close - which I think will mean I have a lot of Alonso on my teams this year as the cheapest Tier 1 guy.
Tier 2 - The Future?
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Rhys Hoskins | PHI | 6 | 2 | 614 | 81 | 28 | 86 | 5 | .244 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | 7 | 2 | 575 | 72 | 23 | 84 | 4 | .284 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | TEX | 8 | 2 | 653 | 78 | 23 | 83 | 6 | .267 |
Hoskins is not a young guy anymore, but he deserves a Tier 2 spot here. I would probably actually draft Vinnie P. over him, but the uncertainty with his limited time in the Majors knocked him down a spot for me. He certainly has the skills, immediately showing elite advanced metrics (contact rate, hard-hit rate, etc.).
Nathaniel Lowe could also probably be pushed down a tier, but he's a really mature hitter with a great floor here - and I'm really high on this Rangers lineup. He will have a year cleaning up behind Semien, Garcia, and Seager - so I think this RBI projection is too low. His ceiling is not comparable to the guys ahead of him here, but he sneaks in here nonetheless.
Tier 3 - Steady
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Jose Abreu | HOU | 9 | 3 | 623 | 79 | 20 | 87 | 1 | .280 |
| Anthony Rizzo | NYY | 10 | 3 | 562 | 76 | 29 | 81 | 7 | .251 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | 11 | 3 | 618 | 74 | 30 | 82 | 1 | .254 |
| Jose Miranda | MIN | 12 | 3 | 590 | 75 | 16 | 72 | 2 | .254 |
| Andrew Vaughn | CWS | 13 | 3 | 604 | 63 | 19 | 62 | 1 | .249 |
This would be the final tier I'm somewhat comfortable with. There's a lack of game-breaking upside here, but these five names should all put up very useful stat lines in 2023. I really like the ballparks for Abreu and Rizzo, and the talent is tantalizing with Mountcastle, Miranda, and Vaughn. I think I will end up being higher than the field on almost all of these names, making it a pretty great tier to grab a corner infielder from.
Tier 4 - Getting Risky
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Christian Walker | ARI | 14 | 4 | 625 | 72 | 26 | 83 | 2 | .243 |
| Max Muncy | LAD | 15 | 4 | 547 | 76 | 25 | 88 | 2 | .238 |
| Seth Brown | OAK | 16 | 4 | 577 | 73 | 30 | 63 | 13 | .239 |
| Rowdy Tellez | MIL | 17 | 4 | 536 | 68 | 27 | 72 | 1 | .251 |
| Luis Arraez | MIN | 18 | 4 | 640 | 85 | 10 | 58 | 5 | .300 |
| C.J. Cron | COL | 19 | 4 | 581 | 71 | 27 | 82 | 1 | .254 |
| Miguel Vargas | LAD | 20 | 4 | 450 | 68 | 20 | 64 | 8 | .268 |
| Ty France | SEA | 21 | 4 | 623 | 74 | 18 | 63 | 0 | .276 |
| Josh Bell | CLE | 22 | 4 | 581 | 69 | 20 | 80 | 0 | .255 |
At this point, we're really surrendering something with the pick. You have your "empty power" guys in Walker, Tellez, and Cron. You have your "batting average specialists" in Arraez and France, and then you have your "this could go terribly" with Brown, Cron, Vargas, and Bell.
We shouldn't be falling in love with any of these names, as there are so many paths to relative failure with these names. The upshot is that by this time in the draft, you know what your team needs - and this tier can answer almost all those needs. Need some dingers? Walker and Brown are cheap! Need a batting average boost - grab Arraez. Looking for a big-time upside? Roll the dice on Vargas! It's a fun tier, but not one you want to be reliant on for your 1B needs.
Tier 5 - Outside Shot
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Matt Mervis | CHC | 23 | 5 | 457 | 45 | 10 | 44 | 3 | .227 |
| Triston Casas | BOS | 24 | 5 | 493 | 48 | 7 | 47 | 4 | .220 |
| Alex Kirilloff | MIN | 25 | 5 | 373 | 46 | 12 | 41 | 1 | .265 |
| Joey Meneses | WSH | 26 | 5 | 633 | 72 | 25 | 76 | 1 | .280 |
| Joey Votto | CIN | 27 | 5 | 555 | 66 | 23 | 69 | 1 | .245 |
| Josh Naylor | CLE | 28 | 5 | 520 | 58 | 18 | 58 | 7 | .244 |
| Brandon Drury | LAA | 29 | 5 | 466 | 55 | 18 | 55 | 1 | .243 |
A mixture here of young guys with unclear ability and playing time (Mervis, Casas, Kiriloff) and older players with shaky outlooks right now (Meneses, Votto, Naylor, Drury). My favorite of the bunch was definitely Naylor because of the Josh Bell signing, but now his playing time is a little bit less clear. He should have the chance to start every day against righties, but if he doesn't perform out of the gate, he could lose that. Drury was a huge over-performer in Cincinnati last year, so we project him to get back to a pretty pedestrian stat line with the Angels.
I will probably sit it out on Mervis/Casas/Kiriloff this year, as there is almost certain to be someone in every draft that wants to take a shot at the young guy. Mervis and Casas don't even have clear starting jobs right now, and Kiriloff continues to battle wrist issues that are pretty scary in redraft leagues.
By this time, hopefully, we're just drafting bench bats with upside, and most of these guys can provide that.
Tier 6 - The Boring Vets
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Spencer Torkelson | DET | 30 | 6 | 530 | 56 | 16 | 52 | 2 | .221 |
| Trey Mancini | HOU | 31 | 6 | 618 | 73 | 20 | 71 | 0 | .245 |
| Jake Cronenworth | SD | 32 | 6 | 629 | 70 | 15 | 77 | 4 | .226 |
| D.J. LeMahieu | NYY | 33 | 6 | 493 | 55 | 8 | 54 | 5 | .255 |
| Garrett Cooper | MIA | 34 | 6 | 572 | 60 | 15 | 63 | 1 | .255 |
| Harold Ramirez | TB | 35 | 6 | 437 | 47 | 11 | 52 | 4 | .279 |
| Luke Voit | WSH | 36 | 6 | 503 | 61 | 22 | 59 | 1 | .240 |
| Carlos Santana | PIT | 37 | 6 | 480 | 56 | 16 | 62 | 1 | .246 |
| Ji-Man Choi | PIT | 38 | 6 | 467 | 54 | 14 | 62 | 0 | .237 |
I don't think any of these guys will be drafted in standard leagues, but I figured we'd get pretty deep here. The former first-overall pick Torkelson looked just awful last year, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him make a big step forward in 2023 given his raw talent.
After that, I don't think there's anybody here that can really be a "huge breakout" performer in 2023, but you could see any of these guys putting up "useful" stat lines. The Pirates duo is a bit interesting as they are both set up well to benefit from the shift ban and get more PAs in Pittsburgh. The downside is that these guys are veteran players that have really never flashed big fantasy upside, so it's really tough to imagine them excelling at this point - especially in one of the league's worst lineups.
Anyways, there is merit to this tier in super deep leagues, and again you have your category specialists here to take advantage of if you're trying to catch up in something late.
That's the first base position! Let me know what I missed and what you disagree with! We'll be back soon with my second base rankings and tiers.
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