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Welcome back RotoBallers to my early 2023 fantasy baseball rankings and projections series! Today, we are covering third base! Here is what we've done so far:
Third base is a really interesting position this year. There are a handful of really, really good hitters at the top - but then the position quickly dries up. Let's break it down.
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Tier 1 - Jose
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | 1 | 1 | 632 | 96 | 28 | 102 | 30 | .300 |
J-Ram has found a way to return top 20 results every year since 2017. He's gone above 35 homers twice, above a .280 batting average three times, and he's stolen 20+ bases four times in this span. He's just spectacular.
He played half of 2022 with a bad thumb, which undoubtedly brought down his power production, and he still hit 29 homers while stealing 20 bags and hitting .280. He has taken care of the thumb, and it should not be an issue next year. That gives J-Ram 30-30-.300 upside; I'm not sure there's another player that can do that.
Tier 2 - Elite Power, Good Average
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Austin Riley | ATL | 2 | 2 | 616 | 91 | 32 | 96 | 1 | .284 |
| Manny Machado | SD | 3 | 2 | 621 | 86 | 26 | 91 | 11 | .263 |
| Rafael Devers | BOS | 4 | 2 | 618 | 85 | 30 | 90 | 4 | .280 |
| Nolan Arenado | STL | 5 | 2 | 677 | 94 | 34 | 109 | 4 | .270 |
If I don't get my hands on Ramirez, I am attacking this group of hitters with one of my next three picks. I'm lower on Bobby Witt Jr. than most just because I'd rather see it again before I invest that heavily into him. These four hitters give you solid track records of fantasy success, and you can pretty much bank on 30-ish homers from all of them if they stay healthy. In all likelihood, they'll all hit for a useful batting average as well while contending for the league lead in R+HR. What you don't get is steals, but I'm fine with that given how solid these four guys are.
Tier 3 - The Young Guns
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | 6 | 3 | 665 | 85 | 21 | 72 | 30 | .246 |
| Gunnar Henderson | BAL | 7 | 3 | 683 | 73 | 19 | 77 | 18 | .251 |
These two both have #1 3B upside. Witt is projecting for 20-30, and projections are pretty conservative most of the time. He has a 30-30 upside for sure, but he's on a bad team and his 8.7% barrel rate last year was short of great. I could see him falling shy of 25 homers and not hitting for a great batting average, which would not cover it at his price.
As for Henderson, a lot of people are really into him. He hit the ball very hard as a rookie and managed strikeouts. He's one of the game's top prospects, so yes - there's an upside. What I don't like is the 57% GB% he put up last year and the 26% strikeout rate. Both of these things aren't impossible to remedy, but I have my doubts that he can really be a 20-homer guy this early on in his career.
Tier 4 - Boring But Useful
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Alex Bregman | HOU | 8 | 4 | 618 | 78 | 17 | 82 | 1 | .255 |
| Matt Chapman | TOR | 9 | 4 | 619 | 80 | 28 | 89 | 3 | .236 |
| Eugenio Suarez | SEA | 10 | 4 | 598 | 74 | 30 | 78 | 0 | .222 |
| Max Muncy | LAD | 11 | 4 | 580 | 80 | 26 | 93 | 3 | .235 |
| Jose Miranda | MIN | 12 | 4 | 555 | 59 | 14 | 58 | 2 | .258 |
I will probably sit out Tier 3, but I'll be looking for one of these guys as my corner infielder. Chapman, Suarez, and Muncy are good HR+RBI bats later in the draft, although you have to eat a pretty bad batting average because of it. You probably want to have a strong batting average on your team when pulling the trigger on one of them - but I love the price on all of them.
The young guy Miranda sneaks in here for me. I really like what he showed as a rookie with the sub-19% strikeout rate and 42% hard-hit rate while avoiding the ground ball. I think he could be a sneaky 25-homer, .280 batting average guy this year.
Tier 5 - Missing Something
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | PIT | 13 | 5 | 588 | 66 | 10 | 69 | 22 | .246 |
| Alec Bohm | PHI | 14 | 5 | 627 | 63 | 11 | 62 | 5 | .261 |
| Ryan McMahon | COL | 15 | 5 | 610 | 76 | 22 | 80 | 8 | .245 |
| Josh Rojas | ARI | 16 | 5 | 497 | 57 | 10 | 63 | 17 | .257 |
| Eduardo Escobar | NYM | 17 | 5 | 378 | 47 | 16 | 44 | 0 | .239 |
We are now into the territory where you probably don't want to start any of these guys. They all have the upside to be start-worthy players, but in most cases this year, they will underwhelm. Hayes and Bohm hit the ball very hard and limit strikeouts, but they've had their problems lifting the ball enough to rack up homers for multiple years.
McMahon added on some power last year, and you always have to give a Rockies hitter a little bit of a boost just because those home games can raise their batting average so much - but the days of him being a breakout candidate are behind us.
Rojas and Escobar are good for what they are (some speed from Rojas, some power from Escobar), but I don't think either guy is an everyday player this season.
Tier 6 - Not Much to Write Home About
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Josh Jung | TEX | 18 | 6 | 521 | 53 | 15 | 52 | 4 | .231 |
| Brandon Drury | LAA | 19 | 6 | 474 | 56 | 18 | 55 | 1 | .239 |
| Anthony Rendon | LAA | 20 | 6 | 549 | 64 | 17 | 74 | 3 | .228 |
| Justin Turner | BOS | 21 | 6 | 539 | 64 | 16 | 74 | 3 | .267 |
| Yandy Diaz | TB | 22 | 6 | 602 | 85 | 11 | 58 | 3 | .279 |
| Jordan Walker | STL | 23 | 6 | 417 | 49 | 12 | 48 | 12 | .235 |
| Brendan Donovan | STL | 24 | 6 | 547 | 65 | 8 | 72 | 10 | .277 |
Jung and Walker are the "exciting" players here as top prospects for their teams set to get some serious run in the Majors. We've already seen Jung struggle mightily with the strikeout (38% K%), so that's a big problem. As for Walker, we just haven't seen him in the Majors yet and there's no guarantee he makes the team out of camp anyways - so you're risking a lot by selecting him.
There's some late-round batting average here with Turner, Diaz, and Donovan - so that works if your team needs it. All things considered though, these are guys you'd rather have on your bench than in your starting lineup if you can help it.
Tier 7 - The Rest
| Player | Team | Rank | Tier | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| J.D. Davis | SF | 25 | 7 | 374 | 46 | 13 | 45 | 2 | .280 |
| Luis Rengifo | LAA | 26 | 7 | 419 | 48 | 10 | 45 | 9 | .255 |
| Jon Berti | MIA | 27 | 7 | 362 | 41 | 7 | 40 | 32 | .227 |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SD | 28 | 7 | 511 | 66 | 10 | 45 | 12 | .217 |
| Jeimer Candelario | WSH | 29 | 7 | 576 | 60 | 16 | 66 | 1 | .266 |
| Yoan Moncada | CHW | 30 | 7 | 567 | 61 | 16 | 68 | 3 | .246 |
| Gio Urshela | LAA | 31 | 7 | 458 | 55 | 12 | 54 | 1 | .279 |
Rounding out the top 30 here, and there's not much to love. I don't see any of these guys as even potential bust-outs (maybe Rengifo?), and they all have their share of injury and playing time questions. Jon Berti can be drafted if you just forego steals early on in the draft, but I would really rather not rely on him for that category. I don't want anybody in this tier.
My overall strategy is to get two of the top 12 here. I would love to start my team with J-Ram, but I'd be pumped to draft Riley/Devers in the third round. I will then look to go after Chapman/Suarez/Muncy for some solid power numbers for a good price. I'm not averse to taking the shot on the Hayes/Bohm tier, I like those young players with locked-in spots in the lineup - those are the types that can really beat their draft price without giving you a zero floor.
There you have it, third base! I'll be back soon with a huge post covering the outfield.
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