NFL Betting Picks: Player Props for Novig (Week 9)

November 6, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets in Week 9 on the 2026-2027 season. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.

It's my favorite time of the week. We're finally getting a pretty good picture of who's in and who's out this week with the late-week practice reports, and the books are releasing more props for us to sift through. You'll find some star players in here this week, but most of my focus is on lesser-known players who are stepping into big roles, have great matchups, or just have very low numbers that they have a great chance of going over.

If you're new here, I'd like to introduce you to one of the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites - Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig for this weekend's games.

As always, follow RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs.  Now here are some of my favorite NFL player props for Week 9 on Novig!

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook.

The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost built into the odds offered on each side of a bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures! No politics, no betting on wars...just sports!

NFL Passing Prop Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Drew Lock OVER 211.5 passing yards (57%)

Lock's passing yards prop is on the move this week, but it feels like there's still plenty of room here for him to go over in a tremendous matchup against the Cardinals' pass defense.

The Cardinals have the 31st-ranked pass defense in the league and are allowing an average of 238 yards per game to opposing QBs. Last week, Dak Prescott managed only 195 yards passing in a fluky outcome, but the previous six quarterbacks all crossed this bar going back to Week 2.

Speaking of Week 2, that's Lock's only start of the season as he went 19-for-26 against Arizona and finished with 236 passing yards. With Seattle still slow to get their ground game going, look for Lock to step right in and feed Jaxon Smith-Njigba and others to get this passing attack going. He's already shown he's capable of leading this offense.

NFL Rushing Prop Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Bucky Irving OVER 15.5 rushing attempts (52%)

This almost feels too good to be true, right? I mean, Irving has handled 27 and 24 carries over the last two weeks as the Bucs have run roughshod over their competition and haven't even attempted to throw the football.

Yes, Tampa is a 6.5-point road underdog in Chicago, and I think they'll need to complete a pass in order to compete in this game. But they've very clearly established their identity this season as a running football team that wants to pound teams and play great defense.

Bucky Irving gained all 170 of his rushing yards after contact against the Falcons.

The Buccaneers called a designed run on 90.0% of plays in heavy rain, the second-highest single-game rate in the NGS era (since 2016).

@ATLvsTB | #WeAreTheKrewe https://t.co/lcveVBD82Q

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 1, 2026

The Bears check in with just the 22nd-ranked run defense in the league, so I think Bucky will find enough success on the ground to keep the carries coming. I also have enough faith in this 2nd-ranked Tampa defense to keep Chicago from running out to a big lead and forcing Tampa into a pass-heavy approach. Tampa is not going to abandon the run unless they absolutely have to, and they've shown that already this season.

Bucky has handled at least 16 carries in six of Tampa's eight games this season, averaging 18.4 per game. Tampa clearly has a winning formula here, and I don't see them deviating from this script.

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NFL Receiving Prop Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Harold Fannin Jr. OVER 4.5 receptions (49%)

The second-year tight end has been one of the biggest bright spots on offense for Cleveland lately. His season has been a bit of a rollercoaster in terms of production, but he's been targeted 23 times over the last two weeks, resulting in 16 catches for 245 yards!

The Saints are trending in the right direction defensively, but have given up some huge days to opposing tight ends. Isaiah Likely went 6-99 and Brock Bowers went 10-116 already this season. You could argue that neither one of those players is a traditional tight end and functions more like wide receivers, but that's actually a pretty good way to describe Fannin Jr.'s usage in this offense, too.

Fannin Jr. has run over half of his routes from the slot or split out wide. It will be Shadeur Sanders under center for the Browns this week, and Sanders is very well-acquainted with Fannin Jr. from last season, as he was his most targeted receiver. I look for the second-year QB to lean on his tight end often in this one, and five catches seems like a pretty manageable task with how involved he's been in the game plan lately, and with how familiar his quarterback already is with him.

Chris Bell OVER 2.5 receptions (42%)

Bell has seen his involvement in the Dolphins increase over the last two weeks. He's earned 10 targets in their last two games and leads their receiving corps with a 62% route participation rate.

Miami is likely going to be in a position where they have to throw the football a lot this weekend against Detroit. While the Lions' secondary has been a bit better in recent weeks, they'll still likely have to handle a decent amount of passing volume from Miami. This sets up to be a pass funnel this week, as Miami has struggled to run the football and is a good bet to be playing from behind.

Bell has gone over this prop in two straight games, and he has the lowest receptions prop of the Dolphins' receivers. I love a low prop with a good payout, which is exactly what we have here.

Novig Tools Exclusively at RotoBaller

Check out our "No-Vig" Calculator, and you can de-vig any line you want to see what the fair odds should be!

You can also shop for the best odds on bets and props at Novig using our new Prediction Finder Tool!

Win more on every winning market position with Novig, where you will consistently get a better return on your investment than traditional sportsbooks.

Anytime Touchdown Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown in percentages, not traditional American odds.

Sam LaPorta Anytime Touchdown (36%)

We have a tight end again here this week; are you surprised? You shouldn't be! We crushed it last week with T.J. Hockenson finding paydirt as the Lions continue to bleed touchdowns to tight ends.

We're flipping the script this week and betting on the Lions' offensive player instead! The Dolphins are also giving up a ton of touchdowns to tight ends, ranking 29th in the NFL.

LaPorta's 23.4% red zone target rate puts him behind only Amon Ra St. Brown on the team, and it's tied for the 8th-most of any pass-catcher in the NFL. But Miami has been funneling TDs to tight ends instead of receivers, which is why I am on LaPorta here with some better bang for our buck!

Good luck if you're tailing these props this week. Thanks for reading. Let's crush!

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