NFL Best Bets for Week 9: Novig Sports Prediction Markets

November 5, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets in Week 9 on the 2026-2027 season. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.

It's honestly one of the toughest slates of the season. My projections line up pretty closely with a lot of the totals and spreads this week. That's a good thing in terms of confidence, and it likely means I'm using similar inputs and calculations as the professional line-makers.

But it also leaves very little wiggle room, and forces me to take a stand on the spots that stand out the most, even if they might not be the most popular spots this week. This is where I have to trust my model a bit and not be afraid to take a stand on the spots I believe in!

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs.  Now here are some of my favorite NFL bets for Week 9 on Novig!

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook.

The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost built into the odds offered on each side of a bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures! No politics, no betting on wars...just sports!

Check out our "No-Vig" Calculator right here, and you can de-vig any line you want to see what the fair odds should be!

NFL Underdog Picks Against the Spread

All odds listed are from NoVig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) at Chicago Bears (52%)

Are the Bucs the best 3-win team in the league? I'd say so, and I'm absolutely not holding it against them that they haven't even attempted to pass the football the last two weeks. I mean, maybe it's the old high school football coach coming out in me, but if you can run the football effectively and play elite defense, why would you do anything else?

Bucky Irving TD!

He's up to 169 yards!

ATLvsTB on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/PsIV3YPlxE

— NFL (@NFL) November 1, 2026

It's Tampa's defense that inspires some confidence in me here. Chicago is on a short week and just had to expend a lot of energy to get a big road win in Seattle. This sets up as a pretty big trap game, as they come home to face a team that appears inferior, but actually rates as a top-10 team in the league when you look at their analytics.

Perhaps Chicago finds a way to squeak out a win; I won't underestimate them. But I like Tampa to keep this one close, and I'll put the Bears on upset alert.

Novig Tools Exclusively at RotoBaller

Check out our "No-Vig" Calculator, and you can de-vig any line you want to see what the fair odds should be!

You can also shop for the best odds on bets and props at Novig using our new Prediction Finder Tool!

Win more on every winning market position with Novig, where you will consistently get a better return on your investment than traditional sportsbooks.

NFL Favorite Picks Against the Spread

Houston Texans (-4.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (53%) 

We successfully picked on the Chargers last week with a road favorite, so why not try it again this week?

We laid 6.5 points with the Rams last week, and while it took until the second quarter for them to break through, once they did, it was all over pretty quickly. This Chargers team folds up fast, and before you know it, they're down two scores.

They've now lost every game by six points or more. I hate relying on trends, but what's stopping them from dropping another game by that margin this week? Houston has underperformed this season, but has a legit defense and just enough offense to get by. Their loss to the Giants was a tough one to stomach, but they're still trending in the right direction.

Ultimately, it's a bet against the Chargers as much as it is on the Texans. L.A. is now ranked dead last in overall DVOA; there's just no reason to think they'll improve enough anywhere to really gain any traction here.

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You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

NFL Game Totals

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers OVER 51.5 points (49%)

I have this one pegged for 55 points, so I can't help but smash the over here in what's a plus-money situation. The Raiders are playing some of the worst defensive football in the NFL right now and so it's a dream matchup for the most efficient offense in the league (San Francisco).

But what we really need from Vegas is for them to do their part and continue to score at a high rate. The Raiders have gone over this 51.5-point total now in six straight games, and the key has been that their offense has beeen putting up points, sometimes in garbage time, but that doesn't matter to me in the slightest.

We saw the Cardinals do enough garbage time work against the Niners earlier this year to close the final margin to 36-30 in Week 3. I think this game follows a similar script. The Niners win handily, but the Raiders score enough late to push us up over the total.

NFL Team Totals

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Seattle Seahawks OVER 24.5 points (52%) vs. Arizona Cardinals

This is what I call the Drew Lock discount! Friends, we have seen the Seahawks team total drop nearly three points since they announced that Sam Darnold would miss this game. But, correct me if I am wrong, didn't Lock lead Seattle to a 31-7 win over Arizona in Week 2?

82 YARDS FOR JSN

SEAvsAZ on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/HWjVKPmdml

— NFL (@NFL) September 20, 2026

The Cardinals defense is awful, and they've given up 25 or more points now in six of their eight games. One of those games was against the disastrous Chargers offense and the other was the flukiest bad day that the Rams have had on offense all season.

Seattle has been slumping offensively lately, but consider that they faced Denver, Kansas City, and Chicago the last three weeks. They've been playing good competition, as each of those defenses are far tougher than Arizona's

The Seahawks are getting their weapons healthier, too, as Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price are working their way back. Drew Lock should play well and has enough talent around him to get this offense back on track. I expect them to put up a big number at home against Arizona.

Good luck if you're tailing these bets, and thanks for reading!

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