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Michael Grennell analyzes under-the-radar starting pitchers (SP) making two starts in Week 5 as possible streamers and waiver wire adds or targets for fantasy baseball.
Happy Vlad Jr. Day everyone! The nationwide crisis is over and now is the time to analyze to death Guerrero's potential fantasy value. But not here. We're sticking to starting pitchers in this article.
So now for our weekly review of previous lists. Starting off with our Week 3 streamers...yeah that was kind of a bust. By far and away Mike Minor was the best pitcher in Week 3 with a seven-strikeout, complete-game shutout, but he ended up only making one start that week. Brandon Woodruff, Trevor Richards and Tyler Mahle all provided good strikeout value, but at the price of inflated ERAs. As for Week 4, Luke Weaver is leading the pack after earning the quality start and the win against the Pirates, allowing one run while striking out seven. Sonny Gray also had a decent outing, striking out nine over 5 1/3 innings while allowing four runs.
With that being said, place your bets on when Guerrero will hit his first homer and then let's look at who to pick up for two starts in Week 5.
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Week 5 Streamers - Under 50% Owned
Julio Teheran, ATL - 47% owned
Probable opponents: vs SDP, @ MIA
OK, yeah, Teheran's season line isn't very impressive with a 5.61 ERA and 1.636 WHIP over five starts. Neither is the fact he's allowed five or more runs in two of his last three starts. On the other hand, he has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his five starts this year. And in Week 5 he'll be facing two of the worst offenses in the majors.
The Marlins' offense remains MIA (Ha, I'm so clever), averaging a league-worst 2.71 runs per game while their .215 team average is fourth-lowest in the majors. Meanwhile, San Diego's offense isn't faring much better, as they are averaging 3.36 runs per game (fourth-worst in the majors) with their .222 team average the fifth-worst mark in MLB. As if those weren't good enough signs for Teheran, the Padres and Marlins both rank among the top-five in the league in team strikeouts.
Outside of a couple bad outings, Teheran has been pretty solid this year. He's not going to get a much easier schedule than what he's projected for this week, so make sure you grab him in as many leagues as you can this week.
Jhoulys Chacin, MIL - 33% owned
Probable opponents: vs TBR, @ DET
The best way to look at Chacin in Week 5 is as the poor man's Teheran. Granted, four of his six starts this season have come against the Cardinals (No. 2 scoring offense) and the Dodgers (No. 4), and he did record a solid outing against the Reds (5 1/3 IP, 2 R, 6 K), but he hasn't been setting the world on fire in 2019. But this week he can provide some decent value in leagues where Teheran is already owned.
Tampa Bay is currently 15th in the league averaging 4.80 runs per game, and their .262 team average is tied for sixth-highest in the league. But the one thing they're doing better than hitting is striking out, as they are second in the majors with 251 strikeouts. If owners are willing to run with Chacin against the Rays, they should be rewarded with a nice start against the Detroit "Third-Worst Scoring Offense" Tigers. In their 23 games this season the Tigers have had only four games where they scored five or more runs, and they have record double-digit team strikeouts in almost half of their games.
Teheran is the guy to pick up this week, but if he's already owned then Chacin should be the next guy up to look at. Don't expect stellar numbers, but with his projected starts owners should be fairly confident in getting good-not-great numbers out of Chacin this week.
Week 5 Streamers - Under 25% Owned
Jeff Samardzija, SFG - 19% owned
Probable opponents: vs LAD, @ CIN
Kind of like Chacin, Samardzija has one nice start and one not so great start projected in Week 5. In Samardzija's case though, he faces an easier "bad" team and a tougher "good" team. The Dodgers are fourth in the majors with 5.54 runs per game and third in the majors with an .831 team OPS. And while the Reds have a slightly higher scoring offense than the Tigers (3.48 runs per game), they are dead last in the majors with a .199 team average.
In two of his last three starts, Samardzija has recorded seven strikeouts while posting a 2-1 record in that span. His start against the Dodgers will be good reason for owners to consider looking elsewhere, but that Cincinnati matchup looks promising. Consider Samardzija a high-risk, high-reward pitcher in Week 5.
Tanner Roark, CIN - 13% owned
Probable opponents: @ NYM, vs SFG
It's a shame Roark hasn't been getting better run support this season, because he's been a pretty decent pitcher. Roark has gone at least five innings in each of his last four starts while posting a 2.61 ERA over that span. He hasn't been putting up a ton of strikeouts (averaging 4.0 strikeouts per start), but he's been a solid low end streaming option. As is the running theme in this week's list, Roark has a promising start (vs San Francisco) and a troubling start (@ New York) in Week 5. The Mets are 10th in the league averaging 5.33 runs per game and ninth in the league with a .259 average, but they're also tied for eighth in the league with 227 team strikeouts. Meanwhile, the Giants are second worst in the majors in runs per game (3.12), average (.212) and OPS (.621).
If you're looking for someone that should keep your ERA reasonably low this week with the potential for decent strikeout value, Roark is your guy.
Adam Wainwright, STL - 9% owned
Probable opponents: @ WAS, @ CHC
If all else fails, owners can look to add Wainwright this week and see if he can continue his success against a couple of tougher matchups. Wainwright has recorded a quality start in three of his five outings this season while posting a 3.96 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 25 innings. In his two other starts however, Wainwright has failed to reach the fifth inning. He'll be facing two of the highest scoring offenses in baseball, but the Cubs and the Nationals have seen their scoring output drop in recent games. The Nationals have averaged 4.8 runs over their last five games, while the Cubs are averaging 4.2 runs and hitting .219 over their last five games.
It's possible Wainwright may be more risk than reward for most owners this week. But if you're in a quality starts league and you're willing to gamble against two potent offenses in the midst of a slump, Wainwright could provide just enough of a boost to give you the win in Week 5.
